Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Rest of Today - Showers and T-storms will continues to move through
Kentucky.

The CWA sits on the front of a amplified mid-level ridge. At the
surface weak low pressure sits in the Ohio River Valley. High
pressure sits over Iowa and western Illinois. A weak cold front is
currently sitting near the Ohio River and working its way slowly
south. Ahead of this front, showers and thunderstorms are starting
to form just south of the Ohio River in an environment with SBCAPE
values of 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg and little shear. These showers will
continue to expand and move south and east through Kentucky. Higher
amounts are expected in the Bluegrass and lower amounts in north-
central Kentucky. Severe weather isn't expected, but heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are possible.

Tonight - Skies clear before fog and stratus move into the Bluegrass
and south-central Kentucky.

During the overnight hours, skies will clear from the northwest. By
6z, the CWA will be mostly clear. Clouds will start filling back
over the Bluegrass and southern region of central Kentucky as a
layer of low stratus and fog is likely tomorrow morning over these
areas. Lows by morning will be in the mid 60s in southern Indiana
given extra radiative cooling and in the upper 60s through
Kentucky under the clouds.

Tomorrow - Sunshine for most with highs in the 80s.

The cold front will reach Tennessee around 12z in the morning. The
rest of the day weak high pressure will move in and skies will clear
for all but the south-eastern part of central Kentucky. That area
won't see clear skies until around sunset. With the sun, highs will
reach the 80s with southern Indiana and Louisville near 90, and
temperatures fading to the low 80s along eastern parts of the CWA.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night...

Expect a period of mainly dry weather, with NW flow aloft as the
closed low continues its slow trek eastward. Temps will run slightly
below normal through Monday night, with at least a slight break in
the humidity as dewpoints mix down into the lower/mid 60s. (Yes it
will still feel like summer!) Perhaps most important to local
stargazers, night skies should be mostly clear to allow favorable
viewing of the peak of the Perseid meteor shower. By Tuesday temps
recover to near or just above climo as a shortwave upper ridge
builds.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Forecast confidence is limited as a series of upper disturbances
will swing through the Ohio Valley. Very good chance for all areas
to see precipitation on one or more days, but the main question mark
is timing. Not much model agreement or run-to-run consistency to
bring storms in as early as Wednesday, but Thursday and/or Friday
seem to be a good bet. Will limit POPs to around 50% for now, and
with later issuances we can try to better pin down which day(s) it
will rain. By Friday night/Saturday there is better agreement that
we'll get into more of a NW flow regime.

Temps through the period will continue a milder trend by night, as
low-level moisture will limit how much overnight temps can drop.
Highs will be limited by convection, but should stay close to
normal.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

This evening a front moving south through central Kentucky is
expected to initiate showers and thunderstorms. This hasn't happened
yet, but if it does, BWG and LEX will be the airports impacted.
Other than this risk of something popping up, fog could be an issue
in the morning. Expected to impact BWG, LEX, and possibly SDF. With
the current forecast temperatures probably won't drop low enough for
major fog concerns, but a low level stratus deck is more likely.
Guidance currently doesn't agree too strongly one way or the other,
so this deck was kept optimistic for SDF in the TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-121915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018 /214 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and evening along a frontal boundary. Locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning will be the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered storms return to the forecast Tuesday through Friday next
week as another system approaches the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
542 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYZ065-066-112215-
Taylor-Casey-
542 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR AND CENTRAL
CASEY COUNTIES...

At 542 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Liberty, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Bass, Atterson, Pricetown, Lanhamtown, Cantown, Labascus and
Beech Bottom.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3734 8516 3743 8510 3741 8507 3742 8506
      3742 8505 3741 8505 3742 8504 3740 8483
      3722 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 295DEG 20KT 3737 8504

EBW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
626 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYZ066-077-078-112300-
Russell-Casey-Adair-
626 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL...SOUTH
CENTRAL CASEY AND EAST CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 626 PM EDT/526 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles
southwest of Liberty, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sycamore Flat, Windsor, Pellyton, Teddy, Webbs Cross Roads,
Dunnville, Rubert Ford, Decatur, Evans Ford and Evona.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3718 8513 3727 8502 3717 8481 3712 8490
      3710 8490 3703 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 313DEG 14KT 3719 8503

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYZ035-039-040-112315-
Woodford-Franklin-Anderson-
638 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 638 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Frankfort,
moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, Bryant, Slickway, Benson, Birdie, Farmdale,
Capital City Airport, Broadville Manor and Avenstoke.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3820 8477 3800 8484 3801 8506 3813 8503
      3813 8502 3814 8502 3816 8501 3818 8501
      3823 8500 3826 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 001DEG 8KT 3818 8486

AMS