Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...Relief in Sight...

While it is difficult to call anything a "cold" front that only
cools the air into the 80s, after several days of highs in the 90s
with Heat Indices in the triple digits, we'll go with that. The
most important feature of the change in airmass following the
front that will pass through the area over the next 24 hours will
be the reduction in humidity. Dew points, which have reached 80
at multiple KY Mesonet sites today, will fall into the 60s by this
time tomorrow over all but the southern two tiers of Kentucky
counties, and keep on dropping after that.

Between now and the frontal passage, however, we'll endure
continued oppressive heat and humidity. The current heat advisory
remains in place until 01Z, and lows overnight will again remain
above 70. Isolated thunderstorms will provide a little relief to a
few locations, but storms moving south through central Indiana
this afternoon are not expected to maintain their strength as they
move into the center of the upper level high pressure ridge
stretching east to west across the Ohio Valley.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will range from the low 80s
along the Ohio River to the upper 80s near the Tennessee border.
With dew points dropping into the 60s, that will result in Heat
Indices in the mid 80s to lower 90s.  After the past two days, that
really WILL feel "cold" - at least relatively speaking.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...Welcome Break in Heat and Humidity Saturday, then Back to Typical
Summer Weather Next Week...

Friday Night Thru Sunday...

The cold front will push south into TN Friday night, ushering in
welcome cooler temperatures and lower surface dewpoints/humidity.
Pleasant weather will continue on Saturday with afternoon highs in
the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s over the northern
half of the forecast area, and 60s in downstate KY. Lows Friday
night will be refreshingly cooler in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and
in the 60s Saturday night, or near or even a few degrees below
normal. However, the respite will be short-lived as humidity values
begin to build again Sunday afternoon across central and west-
central KY. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm Sunday
afternoon or evening over the southwest part of central KY.

Next Week...

The persistent mid-level ridge, centered over the central Rockies
this weekend will extend back eastward across the nation's
midsection and Ohio Valley next week. This will mean a return to
typical summer conditions, although not quite as hot as the last
couple days. Surface dewpoints generally should be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s with some spot mid 70s possible at times. Afternoon
high temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s, with the
hottest air likely remaining over states to our north and west.

With increased low-level moisture, diurnal destabilization is
expected each day. However, with ridging aloft, forcing will be
unorganized and dictated by any local/mesoscale convergence zones.
Thus, isolated thunderstorms will again be possible at times during
the heat of the day next week, but with many areas remaining dry.
Models suggest that a shortwave crossing the northeastern U.S. late
next week or next weekend could result in a better chance for
convection over parts of the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft, but that's at least a week out and tenuous at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Hot, humid air remains in place over the region, providing all the
moisture and instability needed for thunderstorms to develop, but
with a large ridge of high pressure centered on the Ohio Valley,
convection is essentially being squashed, with the exception of a
few cells INVOF CVG. Farther north, strong thunderstorms across
central Indiana were tracking southward well ahead of a cold front
set to bring drier air to all the TAF sites tomorrow. These storms
are expected to weaken and dissipate as they move south into the
ridge, as per all of the short term mesoscale guidance.  For now
there is no reason to doubt this, but will keep a close eye on these
storms if they hold together. Based on current movement, this would
place thunder INVOF SDF by 22Z.

With no significant upper dynamics to serve as a focus until the
cold front moves through after sunrise, only isolated thunder is
expected for much of this valid period.  With a morning FROPA,
convection should be limited.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.

&&

Short Term...JBS
Long Term....TWF
Aviation.....JBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074-
061945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Spencer-Nelson-Larue-Butler-Edmonson-
Hart-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Taylorsville, Bardstown,
Hodgenville, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, and Glasgow
345 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 /245 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat index values of 105 to 110 are expected through early this evening
and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 pm EDT or 8 pm CDT.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms also are expected tonight within
a hot humid air mass ahead of a cold front. A few strong storms
may produce brief gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A thunderstorm chance will linger Friday morning across central
Kentucky as the cold front moves through. Isolated thunderstorms are
again possible by next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-061945-
Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Green-
Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
345 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 /245 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 are expected through early this
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms also are expected
tonight within a hot humid air mass ahead of a cold front. A few
strong storms may produce brief gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and
cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A thunderstorm chance will linger Friday morning across central
Kentucky as the cold front moves through. Isolated thunderstorms are
again possible by next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JBS/TWF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
606 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE NAZARETH          37.85N 85.46W
07/05/2018                   NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT PLUM RUN RD AND 31 E IN
            BARDSTOWN, KY.

&&

JMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
613 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

KYZ027-053-062>064-052245-
Hart-Grayson-Edmonson-Larue-Green-
613 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LARUE...
NORTHWESTERN GREEN...NORTHERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON AND
NORTHEASTERN EDMONSON COUNTIES...

At 613 PM EDT/513 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Munfordville, moving south at 5 mph.

Winds between 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Munfordville, Upton, Bonnieville, Rock Creek, Cub Run, Lobb, Broad
Ford, Peonia, Priceville and Millerstown.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3745 8626 3746 8607 3745 8606 3744 8589
      3747 8589 3749 8559 3729 8563 3729 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 343DEG 6KT 3737 8593

SCHOETTMER