Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Upper trof axis currently swinging into the Ohio Valley, and
starting to trigger convection as it interacts with a nearly
stationary surface boundary over Kentucky, and a tropical air mass.
These storms are firing over areas that received the heaviest rains
over the last few days, and flash flooding remains the primary
threat with 1-hr FFG less than 1 inch in many spots. SVR threat is
also on the table given 30-40 kt mid-level winds. This and decent
shear in the lowest 1 km will support a pulse damaging wind threat,
and a few storms near the boundary could exhibit low-topped
supercell characteristics.

POPs taper down tonight, and even with just partial clearing, the
light winds and abundant moisture could support patchy dense fog by
daybreak Thursday. Not enough confidence in the clearing to mention.

For Thursday, ridging aloft will limit our POPs. However, moisture
pooling along the stalled boundary from western into south-central
Kentucky will lead to isolated to scattered convection once again.
Max temps should just touch 90, with dewpoints high enough to push
heat indices near 100.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Thursday Night - Saturday Night...

Strong upper ridging will build into the region late this week and
into the weekend.  This will result in less rain chances but also an
increase in heat and humidity.  Soundings indicate a decent cap over
the region should limit POPs to 20-30% at most through Sat night.

Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s for highs Fri-Sat with Sat
being the hottest day. With dewpts increasing into the mid 70s,
resultant max heat indices will range from 100-105 west of I-65 on
Fri and 100-105 area wide on Sat (just shy of Heat Advy criteria).

Sunday - Wednesday...

The upper ridge will give way to a quick moving upper trough Sun/Mon
bringing better chances for showers and storms back to the region.
Then an upper ridge builds back in over the central U.S. toward mid
week.  We look to be on the periphery of this ridge so continued
isld-sct chances for t-storms will continue to be possible each day.
Although temps will cool a few degrees for next week, expect typical
hot, humid summer conditions with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s
and heat indices ranging from the mid 90s to around 100 each day.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Plenty of stratus keeping ceilings in the MVFR category today, with
HNB even in fuel-alternate. Expect slight improvement as the
afternoon goes on, but won't go to VFR until early evening. A few
storms firing over central Kentucky will warrant VCTS and CB
mentions initially at LEX and BWG but should remain south of SDF and
HNB. Not enough confidence in any of the terminals being impacted to
go with a TEMPO.

Upper trof axis pushes east this evening, and should lift us to a
mid-level ceiling for much of the night. However the surface
boundary will hang up, giving light winds and still a very moist air
mass, suggestive of early morning fog at HNB. Will carry a TEMPO for
LIFR stratus there. Will go with VCSH at BWG, but if that fails to
materialize, fog will become the issue there. Fortunately the
foggiest locations will be solidly east of BWG and south of LEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>029-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...AMS/EER
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

KYZ023>029-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-281945-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Spencer-
Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Bardstown,
Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville,
Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 /235 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
this evening. Heavy rainfall could result in flooding, especially if
it falls over the most saturated soils. A few of the stronger storms
could also produce locally damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat and humidity will return to the region later in the week, with
heat index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees Thursday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any wind damage or flooding.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ030>037-042-043-281945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Paris, and Carlisle
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 /235 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and north central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening. Heavy
rainfall could result in localized flooding, and a few of the
stronger storms could produce locally damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat and humidity will return to the region later in the week, with
heat index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees Thursday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any wind damage or flooding.

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
449 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TORNADO          2 W PEWEE VALLEY        38.31N 85.53W
06/26/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED A SKIPPING
            EF-1 TORNADO 25 TO 150 YARDS IN WIDTH WITH A
            PATH LENGTH OF 3.6 MILES THAT CROSSED INTO
            OLDHAM COUNTY, KY. THE DURATION OF THE
            TORNADO EVENT WAS 5 MINUTES.

&&

JBS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>