Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
540 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 540 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...Flash Flood Threat Increasing Again For SW Indiana...

Watching a couple of areas of storms early this evening. The first
is a broken line of showers and storms that is steadily lifting NE
from west central KY. These showers and storms developed on the
remnant outflow from morning convection, and are having trouble
maintaining organization. Plenty of instability with ML CAPE values
in the 1500-2500 J/Kg range, but little in the way of organizational
shear. Had a brief line segment the tried to organize but quickly
gusted out, so not too concerned about this area of storms potential
other than a few cloud to ground lighting strikes and brief heavy
rain.

Further west, a more impressive line of storms has developed ahead
of a remnant MCV over easter MO earlier today, and has steadily
grown in coverage/strength through the afternoon. These storms are
producing intense rainfall rates, excessive lightning, and gusty
winds. Storms from the complex, and scattered storms forming on
remnant outflow ahead of the complex should converge on Dubois,
Perry, and Crawford counties over the next 1 to 2 hours. Given how
much rain has fallen in this area recently (especially Dubois),
think a Flash Flood Warning will likely be needed soon. Will
continue to monitor, but will likely be quick on the trigger given 1-
3 hour FFG values less than .75" per hour in that area.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...Flash Flooding Possible over Southern Indiana and portions of
North Central Kentucky through Tonight...

Extended the Flash Flood Watch over southern Indiana and portions of
north central Kentucky through the overnight hours.  This area had
0.5-2.3 inches of rain this morning with additional rounds of t-
storms expected this evening/tonight.  1 hr FFG values range from
0.5 to just under 2 inches in most of the Flash Flood Watch.  With
this low guidance and additional t-storms expected, feel there is a
good chance for flash flooding to develop.

An MCV near St. Louis this afternoon was sparking strong to severe
convection over southern IL/southeast MO.  The MCV will continue to
work eastward this evening bringing showers/storms to our area.
There are a few different model solutions to the track of convection
associated with the MCV.  One solution has storms tracking east
right into our area later this evening.  The other solution has the
main storm cluster diving SE into TN and perhaps just pushing into
portions of south central KY near Bowling Green.  Will need to
monitor storm complex trends this evening and adjust accordingly.
Our current forecast sides toward the eastward solution bringing
showers and strong to severe storms through the region late this
evening.  This would result in another good soaking for the Flash
Flood Watch area likely causing some flooding issues.  Well ahead of
the MCV, isld-sct storms will continue to pop up over our area.  Any
storms this afternoon or tonight will be capable of producing
damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall.

Late tonight showers/storms will decrease in intensity and coverage.
Low temps should hold in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

For Wednesday, expect a morning lull or perhaps just isld-sct
showers and a few t-storms in the morning especially over central
KY.  Wed afternoon one last round of showers/storms will be possible
as a cool front moves through late in the day.  Strong storms with
damaging winds and small hail will be possible Wed
afternoon/evening.  Afternoon highs should range through the low to
mid 80s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Wednesday Night - Thursday Night...

Weak cold front trailing from the eastern Canadian/New England
system will steadily move south and east out of our CWA on Wednesday
night. Will carry a lingering isolated shower or storm chance along
this feature into Wednesday night, but should be dry by Thursday
morning as high pressure will build in from the north. Wednesday
night lows will display a gradient from N to S as the front bisects
the CWA. Look for upper 50s north to upper 60s south.

We'll see a real nice dew point drop off behind the front by
Thursday, yielding a more comfortable feel to the mid to upper 80
highs. Thursday night lows should drop to the low to mid 60s with
continued dry weather.

Friday - Monday...

A strong upper ridge axis that had been over the southern Plains and
lower Mississippi River Valley will build into and center of our
region for the weekend. We'll see an increase in heat and humidity
with this airmass as dew points trend toward the low 70s, and H85
temps peak very near or at 20C. After highs in the upper 80s
touching 90 on Friday, look for highs in the lower 90s on Saturday
through Monday. These values combined with the increasing humidity
will yield heat index numbers peaking in the 95 to 100 degree range
each afternoon. Not quite worthy of any headlines at those values,
but certainly worthy of mention/messaging via social
media/graphics/HWO.

The other issue will be whether we stay completely dry, or whether
a few diurnally driven storms can fire each afternoon. Like the idea
of playing the pattern and going with mostly dry mention for the
weekend given an expected subsident airmass beneath the upper ridge.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, forecast soundings show an
inversion around 800 mb and weak lapse rates that should limit
convective potential. However, you could still get an isolated storm
or two to pop so can't completely call for a dry weekend/Monday.
Overall, think the heat/humidity will be a bigger headline and will
only mention this for now.

Monday Night - Tuesday...

The upper ridge quickly breaks down on Monday night/Tuesday in
response to an impinging NE CONUS trough and cold front trailing
from the associated surface system. Shower and storm chances would
return ahead of these features for this time frame given our moist
and potentially unstable airmass in place. Will watch for a slower
trend with this next rain chance though, as hot/dry high pressure in
place usually tends to be stubborn in a situation like this.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Multiple rounds of isolated to scattered showers and storms will
continue this TAF period.  The most immediate TAF concern will be a
line of t-storms headed for LEX which may produce 30-35 kt wind
gusts and reduced vsby in heavy rainfall.  BWG sits in a moderately
unstable environment currently also and may see storms develop in
the vicinity within the next hr or two.  SDF/HNB are in a lull in
the wake of a storm complex that moved through this morning so
additional showers/storms may hold off until late afternoon/early
evening at these TAF sites.

Beyond that, timing of storms is difficult.  Late tonight convection
should decrease in strength and coverage possibly transitioning to
mainly showers for a time.  After sunrise tomorrow, expect t-storms
to return and increase in coverage into the afternoon hours.

Winds will generally remain SSW between 6-10 kts, but wind speed/
directions will certainly be altered periodically by multiple
outflow boundaries from storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ076>078-083-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ023>025.

&&

Mesoscale...BJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
341 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

INZ079-KYZ026>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-131945-
Jefferson-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Madison, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
341 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018 /241 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening into
tonight. Strong winds and small hail are possible with the stronger
storms, and heavy rainfall could result in minor flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail will be the main threats with the
strongest storms.

Strong high pressure will bring increased heat and humidity into the
region over the weekend into early next week. Afternoon heat index
values are expected to top out in the 95 to 100 degree range each day
Saturday through Monday. Take the necessary precautions if planning
to be outdoors during these days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall amounts or flooding to the National Weather Service in
Louisville.

INZ076>078-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-131945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Jasper, English,
Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, and Brandenburg
341 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018 /241 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening into
tonight. Strong winds and small hail are possible with the stronger
storms, and heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail will be the main threats with the
strongest storms.

Strong high pressure will bring increased heat and humidity into the
region over the weekend into early next week. Afternoon heat index
values are expected to top out in the 95 to 100 degree range each day
Saturday through Monday. Take the necessary precautions if planning
to be outdoors during these days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall amounts or flooding to the National Weather Service in
Louisville.

AMS/BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW BOSTON            37.76N 85.72W
06/12/2018                   HARDIN             KY   PUBLIC

            TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, TREES DOWN IN ROAD,
            ESTIMATED WINDS 50-60MPH.

&&

CG

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