Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

(Tonight - Tuesday) - Shower and Thunderstorm chances remain.

Elevated flow continues to be weak. Precipitable water levels across
central Kentucky will stay above 1.5", and in Southern Indiana and
along the Ohio River, precipitable water levels could go over 2".
The muggy damp air is in place, but with the weak shear in place,
organized severe weather isn't expected. Instability is moderate, so
it won't take much to initiate showers and thunderstorms. Boundary
interaction and subtle outflow boundaries will likely be the cause
of any shower or storm.

Localized minor flooding will be the greatest threat through Tuesday
night. Areas that see multiple rounds or high rates of rain could
see localized flooding. An expanded flood watch was being considered
as the threat of rain continues, but with a lack of current shower
activity and low confidence, current thinking is a flood watch will
not be needed.

Lightning and wind are always a threat with thunderstorms
precautions should be taken for safety if storms are near.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

A weak cold front trailing from a Canadian system will push into the
region, with another round of showers and storms ahead of it on
Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, the front will stall near the
area or just east. Could see some redevelopment along this boundary
mainly across our south and east, but expect southern IN to mostly
stay dry by Wednesday. May still carry a 20 pop as the ECMWF has not
come into line with the other model consensus for dry. Not much of a
temperature change behind the boundary, so look for the upper 80s
for highs.

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure build in for this time
frame. Should see a dry stretch of weather with lows in the upper
60s, and highs around 85 to 90.

Thursday Night - Monday...

Upper ridge axis originating from the southern Plains will steadily
move into our region and center near the area over the weekend. This
should generally lead to a hotter/drier forecast, although cannot
rule out a few diurnally driven showers and storms each
afternoon/evening. Much will depend on how strong of a subsidence
inversion develops beneath this upper ridge. Look for highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 each day, with mild lows in the upper 60s to
around 70.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Typical summer conditions continue over the TAF sites. Shear is
weak, instability is moderate, and moisture is high. It doesn't take
much to develop showers and thunderstorms with this environment.
There is a slow moving front making its way south through central
Kentucky. This front will continue to initiate showers and
thunderstorms. Outflow boundaries from current showers could cause
other shower development. Confidence is high that showers and
thunderstorms are likely at the TAF sites, but confidence on
timing is much lower. Expect erratic winds. VFR conditions are
expected during most of the period, but conditions will
deteriorate during periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
352 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-122000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
352 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 /252 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and
lightning are possible. The heaviest rain should fall across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky where localized minor
flooding issues could arise.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are expected each day trough early Wednesday.
Lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds will be the main
threats. An enhanced potential for flooding will continue into early
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any heavy rainfall amounts OR
flooding to the National Weather Service in Louisville.

KDW

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