River Flood Warning 39, NWS Louisville, KY

886 
WGUS83 KLMK 101435
FLSLMK
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1035 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  South Fork Licking River at Cynthiana
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Harrison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC097-101505-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180911T0224Z/
/CYNK2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1035 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the South Fork Licking River at Cynthiana.
* At  9:30 AM Monday the stage was 17.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  18.1 feet this afternoon. 

&&

LAT...LON 3829 8433 3853 8446 3857 8434 3849 8429
      3835 8422                       

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
849 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

The heavy rain threat has ended, so the Flash Flood Watch was
allowed to expire on time. Surface low pressure was analyzed over
eastern KY late this evening, and drier air continues to advect in
aloft. Low-level moisture, however, will remain socked in tonight.
The back edge of the stratus was over central IL this evening.
Expect a murky night with low clouds and occasional drizzle.
Temperatures will be fairly steady in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

At mid-afternoon low pressure was centered over Lexington with a
cold front dropping southwestward towards Glasgow. A corridor of
rain has been persistently training along the front today, and
additional showers and a few thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the front in a slightly unstable atmosphere. So, will continue
with high PoPs for the remainder of the afternoon in southern and
eastern sections of the area. Will shave a few counties off of the
northwest corner of the Flash Flood Watch, northwest of the low, but
will hang on to the watch in the Blue Grass where rain and minor
flooding continue.

Tonight the low will lift north to near Toledo. Moisture trapped
beneath a sharp low level inversion behind the low will keep a low
overcast and patchy drizzle going through the night. Some patchy
light fog may form in the humid air by morning, but WNW breezes
around 5 to 10 mph should keep it from becoming dense or widespread.

Monday will be a mostly cloudy day with moisture remaining in the
region and the low near Toledo drifting only slightly to the
northeast. Other than some light patchy drizzle possible in the
morning it should be a dry day. With the clouds and a WNW breeze,
went on the cool side of guidance for max temperatures. Most folks
should see highs in the 70s, but some from southeast Indiana into
the Blue Grass may not make it out of the 60s.

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

Monday Night through Wednesday Night...

Slow moving frontal boundary is forecast to push eastward and away
from the region Monday night as high pressure builds into the
region.  This will result in drier conditions returning to the area
through at least Tuesday.  By Wednesday, deep moisture will return
to the region and some scattered storms will be possible across the
region in the afternoon and into the evening hours.   Lows Monday
night look to drop into the mid 50s.  Highs Tuesday look to top out
in the 73 to 78 degree range.  Lows Tuesday night look to cool into
the lower 60s.  Highs on Wednesday look to be slightly warmer with
readings mainly in the upper 70s to the very low 80s with overnight
lows in the mid 60s.

Thursday through Sunday...

Moving into the extended forecast period, all eyes will be on
Hurricane Florence as it approaches and possibly makes landfall
along the SE US coast.  The latest suite of guidance has been
favoring a landfall in the Carolinas though this is still subject to
change.  A large positive height anomaly over the NE US and its
location will be critical in determining where Florence tracks.
Currently the models suggest that a landfall in the Carolinas looks
increasingly likely.  As the storm moves inland the steering flow
looks to collapse and the remnants may actually remain rather
stationary over the Mid-Atlantic.  If this scenario pans out, this
will be a life threatening, if not historic, flash flood event from
the Carolinas northward into Virgina from late next week and into
next weekend.

Locally, the effects of Florence are still a bit uncertain.  The
latest modeling keeps a bit of ridging over the region.  We're
likely to see more cloud cover over the east than the west.  With
Florence to the east, there at least a decent shot of some
precipitation working in from the system.  For now have basically
trended the forecast slightly drier in the west with a low chance
of PoPs in the east.

Highs during the period will look to be seasonal with highs in the
mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

Poor flying conditions this period with widespread low stratus
across the region. The good news is that the heavy rain threat has
pushed off to the east of central KY, with low pressure analyzed
this evening over eastern KY. A surface cold front extended
southwest through south-central KY. Ceilings are borderline IFR at
the moment at SDF/BWG/HNB, but are expected to lower into a IFR/LIFR
deck late tonight. NW winds becoming WNW will stay up around 4-7 kts
overnight and pick up slightly after daybreak on Monday.

Occasional light drizzle will also be possible through Monday
morning, resulting in MVFR vsbys at times. LEX has the best chance
at seeing IFR vsbys in addition to LIFR stratus. The daytime period
of Monday looks overcast, but mostly dry. Clouds will slowly lift
during the afternoon hours and finally scatter out toward Monday
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...EBW
Short Term...13
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
831 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-110045-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
831 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 /731 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W SPEARS              37.86N 84.51W
09/09/2018                   JESSAMINE          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOWING WATER OVER BETHANY RD IN THE LOGANA
            AREA.

&&

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2018

KYZ078-081-082-092045-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
314 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLINTON...SOUTHERN RUSSELL AND
EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

At 314 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Burkesville,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Jamestown, Burkesville, Littrell, Desda, Cartwright, Snow,
Ida, Peytonsburg and Ribbon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3663 8541 3688 8542 3693 8527 3693 8523
      3694 8523 3704 8491 3697 8487 3695 8491
      3696 8493 3696 8495 3692 8496 3686 8506
      3683 8506 3681 8503 3676 8500 3670 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 248DEG 24KT 3679 8536

MJ