Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
949 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Sunny skies across the region and strong south to southwesterly
winds will lead to our second above average temperature day so far
this April. Latest GOES precipitable water data shows a dry patch
across southeast KY with a slightly more moist airmass over central
IN moving slowly southeast. Think this airmass may just keep RH
values up enough for all locations except our far southeast. In that
zone, we have decided to issue a Red Flag Warning, for the
combination of gusty winds, low RH values, and dry fuels. In
addition, decided to make a small expansion of the Wind Advisory to
cover a few more Bluegrass counties, where peak gusts of around 40
mph are possible. The rest of the region should see 30-40 mph gusts
and will maintain the special weather statement for this concern.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...Windy and Dry Today..

A strong LLJ over the area this morning will linger in a strong SW
flow into the early afternoon hours.  As mixing increases late this
morning into this afternoon, the stronger wind gusts aloft should be
able to mix down to the sfc.  While much of the area should see wind
gusts in the 35-40 mph range, the Bluegrass region of KY looks to be
in the sweet spot as the LLJ moves through the region and should see
max wind gusts just over 40 mph by late morning or early afternoon.
Thus, in coordination with surrounding offices, will go ahead and
issue a Wind Advisory from 11am-6pm for that area. Thanks to ILN/JKL
for coordination!

Elsewhere will continue the SPS for gusty southwest winds and
enhanced fire danger.  Analysis of moisture still reveals dry
conditions especially in the Bluegrass region, but still not quite
as bad as eastern KY.  Thus, will hold off on anything more than an
SPS about enhanced fire danger.

Given high temps overachieved yesterday in the strong WAA, bumped up
highs for today and Friday. Mid to upper 70s look likely for highs
today with upper 70s and perhaps a few locations hitting 80 for
Friday.  Mild overnight conditions should keep lows in the upper 50s
tonight.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...Strong Storms Possible Saturday...

Saturday - Sunday...

A strong upper low will approach the Ohio Valley by Saturday with
multiple disturbances ejecting from it.  The first will bring
showers and storms to the region Sat morning.  This initial band
looks to weaken or decay some as it moves into the region west of I-
65 Sat morning.  New convection will push in from the south Sat
afternoon and evening potentially bringing strong to marginally
severe storms to our area.  Wind shear is certainly there but
available instability will be in question due to cloud debris from
showers/storms earlier in the day.

Should sufficient instability be achieved, cellular storm structures
may evolve bringing hail and strong winds Sat afternoon/evening.
While this threat is highly conditional at this time, stay abreast
of weather forecast for storms as we head into the weekend.

Heavy rainfall will be a threat especially Saturday night when
models have been persistently indicating a good amount of rainfall
will occur with convection riding along the main cold front.  Good
moisture transport along the front is expected with storm totals of
1.8 to 2.5 inches expected by Sun evening.  This could result in
some minor flooding issues.

Monday - Wednesday...

Behind this strong storm system, CAA will follow and may result in a
mix of rain/snow Sun night/Monday morning before precipitation ends
Monday afternoon.  No wintry accumulations are expected, but temps
will certainly take a dive.  Highs on Mon will only reach the 40s.

The next chance for rain looks to arrive by Wednesday with a warm up
through mid week expected as well.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period. A short period of LLWS
will be possible this morning as nocturnal inversion holds steady.
Gusty southwesterly winds will quickly mix down to the surface
shortly after dawn this morning as inversion begins to mix out. As
boundary layer mixing deepens this afternoon, wind gusts could
approach or even exceed 40mph. Winds will subside some at the
surface this evening as a inversion develops, but a strong +50kt LLJ
will be over the area and create LLWS issues again for all TAF sites
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for KYZ035>037-039>043-
     047>049.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ078-081-082.

&&

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038>040-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082-130800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 /258 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Expect gusty winds today, with gusts to 30 to 40 mph. Dry conditions
may lead to some fire weather concerns as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Expect gusty winds, dry conditions, and some fire weather concerns
to continue for Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Saturday night ahead of
an approaching cold front. Some of these storms could be strong with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this weekend.

KYZ036-037-041>043-130800-
Scott-Harrison-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Cynthiana, Lexington, Paris,
and Carlisle
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Expect gusty winds today, with gusts to 40 to 45 mph. Dry conditions
may lead to some fire weather concerns as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Expect gusty winds, dry conditions, and some fire weather concerns
to continue for Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Saturday night ahead of
an approaching cold front. Some of these storms could be strong with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this weekend.

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
352 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038>040-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082-121700-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-
Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford,
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
352 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 /252 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/

...GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph by midday, with
gusts of 35-40 mph through the afternoon. Travel may become
difficult for high profile vehicles, mainly on east-west roadways.

In addition, the strong winds will combine with low humidity to
create dangerous burning conditions. Fires could become difficult
to control. Consider postponing outdoor burning until conditions
improve. If you must burn, use caution.

KYZ036-037-041>043-121700-
Scott-Harrison-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Cynthiana, Lexington, Paris,
and Carlisle
352 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph by midday, with
gusts of 40-45 mph through the afternoon. These strong winds will
combine with low humidity to create dangerous burning conditions.
Fires could become difficult to control. Consider postponing
outdoor burning until conditions improve. If you must burn, use
caution.

AMS