Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Louisville, KY

914 
WGUS73 KLMK 012210
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
610 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYC079-137-151-012220-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-180701T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Madison KY-
610 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
GARRARD AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3752 8427 3752 8430 3754 8430 3753 8432
      3754 8432 3754 8435 3752 8436 3750 8435
      3747 8437 3748 8445 3733 8450 3735 8456
      3732 8460 3732 8463 3764 8443 3763 8426

$$

ZT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Thunderstorms that developed primarily over the eastern half of
central Kentucky will fade away this evening as the sun dips below
the horizon. The rest of the night should be quiet, with possibly
some patchy fog forming. Also, a few showers could enter southern
Indiana tonight ahead of a system crossing the Mississippi Valley.
It will be muggy and warm once again with lows in the 70s.

Tomorrow that system, identifiable via a surface boundary stretching
from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks and a weakness in the upper
ridge, will approach the Ohio Valley from the northwest. There will
be plenty of moisture and instability for this system to work with,
but winds aloft and low level shear will be very weak. So, similar
to today, it looks like locally very heavy rain and gusty winds will
be the main threats from storms. The clouds and storms should keep
heat index readings in the 90s for most locations for most of the
day.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Not much change to previous forecast in regards to long term. The
upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS will begin to retrograde
westward by midweek. As it does so, the core of the upper level
ridge and associated heat will move back over the region again.
Wednesday (July 4) looks to be the warmest, muggiest day this
upcoming week with heat indices looking to exceed 100 degrees in
several spots. By late week, the upper level ridge settles over the
central Rockies, and a weak "cold" front attempts to make a run at
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. How far south the front ends
up diving will make a big difference on temperature/humidity for
next weekend, as well as potential for clouds and precipitation.

The GFS/GEFS remains quite wet (2"-3") compared to the ECMWF/CMC
(0.5"-1.5") for the long term period at many locations. The
convective parameterization scheme in the GFS model has been a bit
spurious with widespread QPF in recent weeks, and wouldn't expect
anything less from it this upcoming week. As such, QPF has been
pushed more in the direction of the ECMWF/CMC since they have been
more reliable this summer. This isn't to say that there won't be any
localized heavy rainfall (because there will be)... but in terms of
an areal average for the region, there could be several folks that
go completely dry for the week, while others receive multiple inches
of rain. Such is the nature and unpredictability of isolated to
scattered storms this time of year. The best chance of showers and
storms for everyone in the CWA will probably come late week (Friday)
as the weak "cold" front moves into the region.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Scattered storms have popped up this afternoon in the warm, humid
atmosphere. Any airport could get struck by a storm this afternoon,
but the best chances will be at LEX.

Diurnal nature of the storms will lead to dissipation this evening,
followed by a quiet overnight. Some patchy fog could form in places
that get a shower this afternoon...will have to see how the rainfall
plays out over the next several hours.

A cold front approaching from the west will bring a better chance
for storms tomorrow, especially in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>026-030-061.

&&

Short Term...13
Long Term...DM
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

INZ079-KYZ027>029-031>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082-
021930-
Jefferson-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-
Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Madison, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown,
Shepherdsville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg,
Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green,
Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton,
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 /216 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will diminish this evening. The main threats with
these storms will be brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall, as well as
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through much of this week. The
main threats with storms will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Heat
index values above 100 degrees will be possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

INZ076>078-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-030-061-021930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Jefferson-Butler-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Jasper, English,
Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Louisville,
and Morgantown
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 /216 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will diminish early this evening. The main
threats with these storms will be brief gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, as well as frequent lightning.

Outside of storms, heat index values will be in the 100 to 105 degree
range early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through much of this week. The
main threats with storms will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Heat
index values above 100 degrees will be possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYZ047-055-056-011730-
Boyle-Mercer-Garrard-
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...
NORTHWESTERN GARRARD AND NORTHEASTERN BOYLE COUNTIES...

At 105 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Danville,
moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Danville, Harrodsburg, Burgin, Shakertown, Marcellus, Bourne,
Bryantsville, Faulconer, Bushtown and Toddville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3769 8462 3767 8482 3782 8484 3782 8468
      3779 8467 3778 8467 3779 8465 3781 8466
      3780 8461 3779 8461 3779 8464 3777 8464
      3777 8463 3776 8460 3775 8462 3774 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 181DEG 12KT 3773 8473

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYZ048-011745-
Jessamine-
118 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JESSAMINE COUNTY...

At 118 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Nicholasville, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nicholasville, Wilmore, Pink, Pollard, Little Hickman and Mount
Lebanon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3777 8454 3775 8454 3773 8458 3775 8459
      3775 8462 3776 8460 3778 8464 3780 8464
      3779 8462 3779 8461 3780 8461 3781 8466
      3779 8465 3778 8467 3779 8467 3787 8468
      3783 8448 3782 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 194DEG 12KT 3778 8461

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYZ036-041-011800-
Scott-Fayette-
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND NORTH
CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 137 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Thoroughbred
Acres, moving north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Elmendorf, Newtown, Spindletop Estates,
Loradale, Georgetown Scott County Airport, Mattoxtown, Greendale and
Donerail.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3816 8438 3813 8437 3812 8438 3810 8438
      3810 8454 3825 8454 3824 8442 3821 8442
      3821 8438 3819 8436 3818 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 183DEG 11KT 3814 8445

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYZ040-047-011800-
Mercer-Woodford-
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND SOUTHERN
WOODFORD COUNTIES...

At 142 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Harrodsburg, moving north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oregon, Terrapin, Vanarsdell, Ebenezer, Nonesuch, Mundys Landing,
Bondville, Talmage, Braxton and Kirkwood.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3792 8469 3782 8475 3784 8495 3795 8493
      3795 8491 3794 8491 3794 8490 3795 8489
      3794 8489 3794 8488 3797 8481 3795 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 192DEG 11KT 3788 8485

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
216 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYZ036-041-011900-
Scott-Fayette-
216 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SCOTT AND NORTH CENTRAL
FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 216 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles west of Georgetown to near
Thoroughbred Acres. Movement was north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Stamping Ground, Sadieville, Longlick, Skinnersburg, Moon
Lake Estates, Muddy Ford, Great Crossing, Herdon and Davis.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3813 8441 3815 8465 3816 8464 3816 8466
      3817 8465 3818 8465 3818 8468 3817 8468
      3818 8469 3818 8470 3836 8472 3843 8451
      3839 8447 3834 8446 3830 8443 3829 8444
      3825 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 172DEG 8KT 3817 8469 3816 8445

ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

KYZ049-056-057-067-012000-
Clark-Lincoln-Madison-Garrard-
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN GARRARD...SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND MADISON COUNTIES...

At 319 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Harris Ferry to Ottowa. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Harris Ferry, Cressy, Berea, Crab Orchard, Caleast, Duluth,
Peytontown, Vianna and Bighill.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3786 8401 3787 8403 3783 8400 3782 8407
      3785 8408 3782 8412 3781 8408 3767 8409
      3765 8413 3757 8409 3752 8426 3754 8435
      3747 8437 3748 8445 3735 8450 3735 8456
      3731 8463 3783 8431 3792 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 225DEG 13KT 3777 8417 3737 8447

ZT