Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be mainly
over the eastern half of Nevada, which will taper off into this
evening. Storm-free this weekend, with storms returning to far
eastern NV Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. As drier air approaches from
the west today, shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
will be focused mainly over Elko, Eureka and White Pine Counties.
Brief moderate to heavy rains will be possible in any storms that
develop today, which may lead to ponding of water in some
locations. The dry air will overspread the entire CWA by later
this evening, putting an end to all showers through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday. Model agreement is
pretty good until the middle of next week when the pattern goes a
little awry. The current monsoon flow will taper off and there is
some level of uncertainty on whether a renewed flow will ensue
next week.

Saturday night through Tuesday evening. Will keep this period
dry. High pressure will move inland off the Pacific as a low
amplitude ridge, drifting very slowly across California to settle
near or southwest of the 4-corners area of the country. This will
energize the monsoon flow again however at this juncture it seems
that the ridge is too weak to supple much moisture for the western
Great Basin. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the
mid 50s Saturday night and Sunday night, and generally fall into
the 50s Monday night. High temperatures will generally rise into
the 90s.

Tuesday night through Thursday. High pressure will generally be
centered southwest of the 4-corners region however models are
inconsistent on where the high will center exactly which in turn
will affect moisture propagation northward. And there is yet
another trough moving to the north of the state to quell any
significant push of monsoon moisture. However the monsoon push
could get enhanced enough to produce some dry lightning in parts
of east central Nevada. High temperatures will generally be in the
90s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.
Similar to yesterday, thunderstorms could occur at any station
this afternoon and evening, with a tempo heavy rain shower and
possible outflow winds up to around 30 kts. Greatest coverage
will be in VC of KELY by early afternoon and KEKO late afternoon.
Friday afternoon and evening storms should be more confined to
KEKO and KELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air continues to spread into western Nevada
today, with most showers and thunderstorms this afternoon expected
over zones 469 470 and 455. Warm and dry with storm-free
conditions this weekend.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

96/99/99/96

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1200 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

NVZ031-171945-
Northern Elko County NV-
1200 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
1245 PM PDT...

At 1158 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Jackpot, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm
is moving very little and heavy rain could lead to localized
flooding.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Elko
County.

LAT...LON 4184 11404 4169 11443 4189 11458 4200 11437
      4200 11405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 239DEG 14KT 4183 11441

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1240 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

NVZ031-172030-
Northern Elko County NV-
1240 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM PDT...

At 1239 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Midas, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midas, Willow Creek Reservoir and Midas Mine.

LAT...LON 4109 11672 4123 11688 4158 11659 4133 11620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 229DEG 28KT 4121 11673

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1257 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

NVZ031-172045-
Northern Elko County NV-
1257 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM PDT...

At 1256 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Jarbidge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jarbidge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4198 11472 4166 11552 4182 11571 4200 11551
      4200 11481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 243DEG 31KT 4178 11549

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
118 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

NVZ036-038-172100-
Southwest Elko County NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
118 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO AND CENTRAL
EUREKA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM PDT...

At 117 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Pine Valley, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Valley.

LAT...LON 4027 11621 4033 11629 4055 11610 4043 11589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 224DEG 16KT 4033 11622

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
121 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

NVZ031-172100-
Northern Elko County NV-
121 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM PDT...

At 121 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 24 miles northeast of Midas to 12 miles west of
Tuscarora. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chicken Creek Summit and Wilson Rservoir.

LAT...LON 4196 11639 4153 11592 4131 11646 4161 11670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 225DEG 29KT 4156 11659 4137 11645

SH