Snow Squall Warning 1, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
208 AM PST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front associated with a winter weather
disturbance will move through the state today bringing snow
showers and very windy conditions. High pressure will build over
the area Thursday then another weak low pressure system will move
through the region Friday night into Saturday with minimal
impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. There is good model
agreement for the short term period. There is a robust short wave
low that will brush northeast Nevada with some snow and very windy
conditions after which high pressure will build in.

Today. A fast-moving upper level trough of low pressure will
traverse the state. Valley snow accumulations should be in the 1-2
inch range with mountains picking up 2-4 inches. Impacts from
true snow accumulation will be minimal however driving visibility
could be adversely affected from the gusty winds and the blowing
snow aspect. A Wind Advisory is in effect for eastern Nevada as
well as northern Nye County. Timing will put the cold front moving
through Elko County between 12z and 15z. Wind gusts along the
front and post-frontal will be around 50 mph with gusts around 60
mph over the Pequop Mountain range. Highway 93 north of Wells, NV and
Interstate 80 east of Wells will be especially treacherous during
the cold front passage. Snow squalls associated with the frontal
passage are possible mainly across Elko county leading to rapid
diminishing visibility and onset of stronger winds this morning.
High temperatures will be in the 30s.

Tonight through Friday. A short wave high pressure ridge will move
through the Great Basin. With the rapidity of the subsidence, it
appears that a temperature inversion will re-initiate. Dry
conditions are expected across the LKN CWFA however by late
Friday, precipitation from the next weak system may be moving into
northwest Nevada. High temperatures will range from the mid 20s
to the mid 30s. Low temperatures will range from the single digits
to the teens.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night through next Tuesday.

Main Concern or Impact:  Possible Inversion effect on Temps

Brief synoptic overview: SW-NE Polar front jet moves into southern ID,
shifting a weak frontal boundary/wave west to east across the
area Friday night. After a 500mb ridge axis propagates through
Saturday, another frontal slam makes landfall in the Pacific NW
Saturday night. Although impressive at the start, this frontal
system splits or simply falls apart on Sunday as it moves eastward
into far western Nevada. By Monday, either a glimmer of a
boundary or deformation field (if it splits and forms another weak
wave in southern Nevada) pushes through the area. By early Tuesday,
the Pacific ridge builds from the southeast, placing a ridge axis
from San Fran to Jackpot. This should keep the polar front jet and
better dynamics of the next wet system just along or north of the
ID/NV state line. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Changes to Previous Forecast: Nothing significant...minor adjustment

Forecast Confidence & Model Discussion: Confident that no significant
system will impact the area, and that the pattern remains
progressive. However, confidence is below average in regards temps
as the inversion could set in, limiting diurnal changes in mainly
northern Nevada.

Sensible Weather/Impacts:

Precip
Some light snow Friday night (mainly northern areas), and Sunday
evening though Monday (all areas) with minimum accumulation. The
lowest valleys could see some rain mix with snow on Monday.
Showers possible in far northern Elko and Humboldt Tuesday and
Tuesday night with rising snow levels.

Winds
No issues. Increase in winds Friday and Monday, especially in higher
terrain out of the south to southwest.

Temps
Expect near average (30s) in the valleys of NE Nevada due to
inversions, with above average (40s) for most other locations.
Overnight lows should be close to average (teens to low 20s) with
some of the colder locations in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION...A fast moving storm system will move across northern
Nevada between 11Z-17Z today bringing snow and strong wind gusts.
Snow and blowing snow could affect KEKO for a brief period and
the cold front should pass between 12z and 15z when brief IFR
conditions could occur. Gusty winds will affect KELY and possibly
KTPH this afternoon.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM PST this
afternoon for Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt
Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-
Southwestern Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon
for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-White Pine
County.

&&

92/85/92