Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
225 AM PDT Wed May 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Another trough of low pressure will move in from the
Pacific. Showers and thunderstorms will once again spread across
northern and central Nevada today and Thursday. Dry and warm
weather is expected for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Currently there is an area
of showers moving into Humboldt County from Pershing County via
the Winnemucca area. Showers continue to develop to the west of
the LKN CWFA. Updated the forecast earlier noticing that the GFS
model is the only longer term model to pick up on the pre-frontal
wave development. The RAP and NMM do show some banded QPF. So
convection is starting early.

A low pressure trough will be moving inland off the Pacific.
Diffluent flow will be prevalent over the LKN CWFA. The upper
level jet core will slowly move aloft of northern Nevada although
is not very strong. Still, over northern Elko County, CAPE values
are over 1,000 J/Kg. Think there is enough instability for
nocturnal thunderstorms again tonight. Pre-frontal warming will
be strong today with the strengthening southwest flow aloft.
Cooler air will infiltrate the state on Thursday. Winds will be
quite breezy over parts of central Nevada this afternoon and again
Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 80s today and
the 70s on Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Wednesday

Models are in good agreement and forecast confidence is higher
than normal that a dry, sun- filled, and warmer weekend is on the
way to northern and central Nevada for a change.

A lingering cold front that moved through earlier in the day moves
into UT by early Friday morning. Look for dry conditions to return
for the daytime on Friday and continuing into the weekend.
Forecast confidence falls beyond Monday as models struggle to
handle the exact placement of the next Pacific NW storm system.

Expect widespread daytime highs in the 80s through Monday.
Overnight lows will range from the 40s and 50s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION....There is a marginal risk for strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms storms across northeastern Nevada later
this afternoon and evening with the potential for strong winds and
small hail. A front is slowly working its way across the region
this morning. Morning convection over KWMC has diminished. Expect
additional storms to develop along this front later this
afternoon and into the evening. Brief MVFR conditions are possible
in the heaviest storms. Convection will be limited to KBAM, KEKO,
and KELY. Convection looks to stay north of KTPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

92/89/89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Elko NV
414 AM PDT Wed May 30 2018

NVZ030-031-033>041-311115-
Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-
Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-White Pine County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwestern Elko County-South Central Elko County-
Northwestern Nye County-Northeastern Nye County-
414 AM PDT Wed May 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Nevada...north
central Nevada...northeast Nevada...northwest Nevada and south
central Nevada.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A Pacific trough of low pressure and associated cold front will
approach Nevada today. A few strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms could develop later this afternoon and evening,
primarily across central and northeast parts of the state. Main
threats would include: locally heavy downpours that could cause
flooding, strong downburst or outflow winds, hail, and dangerous
cloud-to- ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Low pressure will move through the state Thursday. More isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible across northern Elko County.
Main threats would include: locally heavy downpours that could
cause flooding, strong downburst or outflow winds, hail, and
dangerous cloud-to- ground lightning. Winds will be breezy south
of highway 50 in central Nevada.

Dry weather is expected Friday into early next week with much
warmer temperatures over the weekend. A weak and mainly dry cool
front could lower temperatures back down closer to normal
across northern Nevada by Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report weather phenomena according to
standard operating procedure.

LW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
145 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2018

NVZ036-037-302130-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
145 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM PDT...

At 144 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Grass Valley, moving north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Eureka
County.

LAT...LON 3996 11629 3999 11649 4027 11645 4023 11612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 194DEG 15KT 4002 11636

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
156 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2018

NVZ036-038-302145-
Southwest Elko County NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
156 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LANDER...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO AND NORTHWESTERN EUREKA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
PDT...

At 156 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crescent Valley, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beowawe and Crescent Valley.

LAT...LON 4025 11658 4034 11675 4068 11651 4054 11612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 219DEG 28KT 4033 11660

SH