Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Elko, NV

142 
WWUS85 KLKN 141016
RFWLKN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Elko NV
316 AM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...Isolated dry thunderstorms develop in central Nevada later this
morning and into this afternoon, then spread northward this 
evening into Wednesday morning...

NVZ454-467>470-150430-
/O.CON.KLKN.FW.W.0013.180815T0000Z-180815T1800Z/
Central Lander and Eureka Counties-
Central and Western Humboldt County-
Eastern Humboldt County and Northwestern Elko County-
Southwestern and Central Elko County-Eastern Elko County-
316 AM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
454 467 468 469 AND 470... 

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 454 Central Lander and 
  Eureka Counties...Fire Weather Zone 467 Central and Western 
  Humboldt County...Fire Weather Zone 468 Eastern Humboldt 
  County and Northwestern Elko County...Fire Weather Zone 469 
  Southwestern and Central Elko County and Fire Weather Zone 470 
  Eastern Elko County.

* Thunderstorm Coverage...Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms
  are expected this evening and overnight. 

* Outflow Winds...Gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible.

* Impacts...Dry lightning may create new fire starts and combine 
  with strong outflow winds to produce rapid fire growth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

344 
WWUS85 KLKN 142011
RFWLKN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Elko NV
111 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...Isolated dry thunderstorms developing in central Nevada early
this afternoon, then spread northward this evening into Wednesday
morning. Some storms will produce localized flooding in central
and eastern Nevada, while storms further north will be drier. 

NVZ454-467>470-151415-
/O.CON.KLKN.FW.W.0013.180815T0000Z-180815T1800Z/
Central Lander and Eureka Counties-
Central and Western Humboldt County-
Eastern Humboldt County and Northwestern Elko County-
Southwestern and Central Elko County-Eastern Elko County-
111 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
454...467...468...469 AND 470...


* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 454 Central Lander and 
Eureka Counties...Fire Weather Zone 467 Central and Western 
Humboldt County...Fire Weather Zone 468 Eastern Humboldt County 
and Northwestern Elko County...Fire Weather Zone 469 Southwestern 
and Central Elko County and Fire Weather Zone 470 Eastern Elko 
County.

* Thunderstorm Coverage...Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected
  this evening and overnight.

* Outflow Winds...Gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible.

* Impacts...Dry lightning may create new fire starts and combine 
  with strong outflow winds to produce rapid fire growth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

369 
WWUS85 KLKN 150931
RFWLKN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Elko NV
231 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018


NVZ454-467>470-151800-
/O.CON.KLKN.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180815T1800Z/
Central Lander and Eureka Counties-
Central and Western Humboldt County-
Eastern Humboldt County and Northwestern Elko County-
Southwestern and Central Elko County-Eastern Elko County-
231 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 454...467...
468...469 AND 470...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 454 Central Lander and 
  Eureka Counties...Fire Weather Zone 467 Central and Western 
  Humboldt County...Fire Weather Zone 468 Eastern Humboldt 
  County and Northwestern Elko County...Fire Weather Zone 469 
  Southwestern and Central Elko County and Fire Weather Zone 470 
  Eastern Elko County.

* Thunderstorm Coverage...Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible
  through this morning.

* Outflow Winds...Gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible.

* Impacts...Dry lightning may create new fire starts and combine 
  with strong outflow winds to produce rapid fire growth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
250 AM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture over eastern and central Nevada will be
pulled back farther north and west through Wednesday as a trough
moves into the Northwest. Expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day with drier weather returning by the end of
the week. Temperatures will not be as hot as last week, though
hazy conditions and smoke from regional wildfires will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

Today - Forecast looks in good shape as moisture will promote
thunderstorms across central and eastern Nevada. The coverage
will be a little farther north and west today, but will stay out
of Humboldt and most of western Elko Counties. Any thunderstorm
will be capable of wind gusts to 50 mph as seen the last two days.

Tonight - Some of the forecast models indicate that a few storms
may persist well into the evening across eastern Nevada as weak
upper level energy and a mid level vort max are forecast to move
across the region through the evening and into overnight.

Tuesday - Expect yet another round of storms across northern and
central Nevada. Coverage will expand even further to encompass
all of northern Nevada. Intensity could also uptick as a rather
potent upper level PV anomaly(energy) moves across northern
Nevada during the later afternoon and into the evening. This
should enhance convection and keep it going well into the
evening.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. Model agreement is
only fair at this time due to the inconsistency of the initial
placement of high pressure near or southwest of the 4-corners area
of the country, and the timing and strength of a kicker shortwave
anticipated to brush or dig into northern Nevada to bring about
an enhanced moisture flow through central Nevada initially,
followed by possibly a rapid shutdown of that same monsoon flow
48 hours later.

Tuesday night through Thursday evening. With high pressure sitting
a little southwest of 4-corners central and an incoming trough of
low pressure still out over the Pacific, there should be enough
moisture pumped up Tuesday and Wednesday for most areas to have
dry thunderstorm potential. Models are indicating a peak in the
surge of moisture Tuesday and/or Wednesday with the mean core
streaming along the UT/NV border. Eastern Nevada will be the
beneficiary of some wet storms and will be the last to have storms
Thursday evening as the kicker short wave trough moves closer.
High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

Thursday night through Sunday. Will keep this period dry. However
the incoming trough is modeled differently by the ECWMF than the
lately-very-good GFS. The ECMWF solution is quite a bit deeper
with the short wave allowing more cooler air to filter in as well
while drawing up some additional moisture for Friday at least
before exiting. Either way this low pressure wave will essentially
and eventually kick the moist flow eastward. High pressure will
then build quickly over the Pacific but there is some discrepancy
on how quickly it will envelop California and Nevada to dry
things. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s. High
temperatures will be in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR but hazy conditions are expected through Tuesday
morning for KWMC KEKO KELY KTPH and KBAM. Thunderstorms will
develop across northern Nye and White Pine counties early Monday
afternoon and may affect KELY and KTPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active fire weather week is still on track.
Coverage of isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms expands today
into central Lander and Eureka Counties. Some of the storms may
make it to southern and eastern FWZ 469, but coverage will not be
enough for a RFW.

Storms will continue to expand to encompass all of northern Nevada
by Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Storms will primarily be dry, but
a few wet storms cannot be ruled out. Regardless of wetting
rains, record to near record ERCs, and very low to record low live
fuel moisture across norther Nevada, could set the stage for new
starts.

Overnight convection with dry storms are possible as a rather
potent shortwave moves across central and northern Nevada through
Wednesday morning. This may keep convection going well into the
evening and possibly into the early morning hours. This is why
the watch has been issued through the overnight and into Wednesday
late morning. The watch may need to be extended into Wednesday
evening as another round of at least a mix of wet/dry storms
redevelop. This will need to be watched closely as we head into
the work week for a possible extension/upgrade.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Tuesday
for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko County-
Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of Highway
50-White Pine County.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Central and
Western Humboldt County-Eastern Elko County-Eastern Humboldt
County and Northwestern Elko County-Southwestern and Central
Elko County-White Pine County.

&&

94/92/92/94