Heat Advisory 2, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
213 PM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The threat for thunderstorms continues across eastern
Nevada this afternoon. Precipitation chances will diminish as the
heat builds into the middle portions of the work week. Daytime
highs will be around 100 degrees for many valleys across the
Silver State.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. With a passing jet
overhead and short wave energy continuing to push east, expect
shower and thunderstorm activity to continue to increase in
coverage.intensity through the later afternoon. Some strong to
severe storms are possible with increasing instability and
moisture with 30-45 kts of shear in place. Activity should work
east into Utah/Idaho by late this evening. We cannot rule out a
few aftn showers or thunderstorms over Nye County on Tue/Wed, but
confidence is low at this time. Regardless, hot conditions
continue with temperatures averaging around 10 degrees above
normal. Highs in the 90s to low 100s and nighttime lows only
dipping down into the upper upper 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday

500 mb high pressure centered over the Utah and southern NV area
will continue to provide moisture and instability for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly areas along/south of
US-50 through the period. Hot temperatures with light winds
expected. High slides eastward for the latter half of the week
which could advect additional mid- level moisture farther north
with the increasing southerly return flow around the western
periphery of the ridge. This could introduce more showers and
thunderstorms to the state and will be watched over the coming
days.

Above normal temperatures are likely, especially in areas where
cloud cover is less extensive across the north. Thursday and
Friday look to be the hottest temps of the year where heat
advisory criteria could be met.

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.AVIATION...VCTS expected at KELY and KEKO this afternoon,
diminishing in the evening. There is a slight chance of brief
MVFR, but storms across the north will mostly be dry with gusty
outflow winds to 40-45kts possible.

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.FIRE WEATHER...RFW remains in effect for FWZ 469 and 470 for
iso/sct dry thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Cannot rule out
some iso dry for northern sections of 467/468 later this
afternoon, but coverage will be confined to near the NV/ID/OR
border.

As we move into the middle portions of the work week, strong ridge
of high pressure will meander around the Great Basin with
increasing dry and hot weather. Storm chances will begin to creep
into central NV near the highway 50 corridor by the middle to
later portions of this week. At this time, storms appear to be on
the wet side, but we will continue to monitor through the week.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Eastern Elko
County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.

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94/89/89/94