Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
342 PM PDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture across central Nevada will result in
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.
Dry and hot conditions return across a majority of the region by
the early to middle portions of next week.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Afternoon convection was slow
to get going, thanks to a robust stratus deck across central NV.
The deck is now burned off and an increasingly unstable airmass is
allowing for convective initiation. Once again, flash flooding
will be possible where cell mergers and training occur. Convection
will diminish after sunset with only a few lingering showers.

Saturday will feature another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will remain along the
US 6 and US 50 corridors. Even though the Flash Flood Watch will
not be carried into tomorrow at this time, it is not out of the
question to see localized flooding.

On Sunday, a rather potent shortwave will begin to move into
northern Nevada. Moisture will be drawn north and northwest as
the wave approaches from the west. This moisture will combine
with a strong jet max crossing northern NV, where a few stronger
storms will be possible. The main threat will be gusty outflow
wind.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday.

Progressive short wave moves across northern NV on Monday. Their
is a thin ribbon of deeper moisture associated with this feature
that will generate a few thunderstorms, most notably across
Humboldt county. There is some mid level speed shear that will
keep storms moving along, this inhibits significant rain for any
given spot. This could have fire weather implications from "dry"
lightning even if storms do generate some rain.

Short wave moves downstream Monday night and will be followed by
much drier air that stabilizes the air mass. The exception could
be the central NV highlands where isolated afternoon storms could
develop.

The forecast concern for the latter part of the extended is
whether the subtropical high strengthens across the Great Basin
area. Ensembles shows it centered over Nevada on Wednesday (which
means hot weather with 100s for most valleys below 6000 feet),
but shifts to wrn Colorado by Friday. Moisture circulating the
high core could bring another monsoonal moisture surge over
California and western Nevada.

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.AVIATION...VFR with no significant weather expected at KWMC,
KBAM and KEKO for the next 24 hours. Diurnal TSRA with variable
wind gusts persist for KTPH and KELY. The convective threat tapers
off after 04Z this evening, but reforms after 20Z on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Iso/sct showers and thunderstorms will continue
across central NV this aftn and early eve. Storms will diminish
after sunset with only lingering showers through the night.
Saturday will see another round of iso/sct showers and
thunderstorms for FWZ 457 and 455. Any storm will remain wet with
slow movement.

By Sunday and Monday, iso/sct dry thunderstorms are possible.
Because of the threat, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch,
beginning Sunday late morning through Monday morning. Given the
strength and placement of the robust jet streak moving across
northern NV, thinking convection may last well into Sunday night.
By Monday, another round of iso dry thunderstorms will be
possible. The best chance will be for FWZs 469 and 470. This will
be watched closely to see if the watch will need pulled into
Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Central and Western
Humboldt County-Eastern Elko County-Eastern Humboldt County and
Northwestern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.

Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern
Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-White Pine County.

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94/88/88/94