Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
233 PM PDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture across central Nevada will result in
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
Some thunderstorms could contain heavy rainfall potentially
leading to flash flooding. Meanwhile, much of northern Nevada will
remain dry with above normal temperatures through early next
week.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.

Hot and dry across most of northern Nevada through Saturday. A
slight increase in moisture there on Friday so a minor chance for
thunderstorms but mostly dry ones. Monsoon flow into central and
eastern Nevada is well handled by models. Dewpoints have risen
into the 30s-50s with lower temps due to clouds and so dewpoint
spreads are low enough for heavy rains, given the convective
situation. An occasional 60 dp shows up. Flash flood watch remains
in effect for northern Nye County and for White Pine County
through 11 pm PDT.

Nothing changes much through the short term with plenty of
thunderstorms and moisture for heavy rains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday.

In the big picture, subtropical ridge covers the swrn CONUS
through the long term. There is better model consensus regarding
the broad upper low around 30N/140W, eventually this feature gets
entrained into the westerlies and streams across the nrn Great
Basin. While timing differences exist, there is general agreement
that high core gets temporarily pushed southward rather than a big
heat "bubble" over the Great Basin. In advance of this progressive
short wave, moisture reaches the nrn NV border for a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, possibly into Tuesday. The
highest chance for storms remains situated over central NV,
mainly short lived pulse storms that generate brief showers.

The heat "bubble" still has potential in forming with the
ensembles coming better in line for the Day 6 through 10 time
period. Above normal temps are expected each day with little
relief except for any passing thunderstorm that produces some
rain.

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.AVIATION...VFR expected at KWMC and KBAM. KEKO should be VFR and
clear, but models indicate storms may be just outside of VCTS.

VCTS will exist at KELY and KTPH with variable gusty outflow winds
expected. Any storms that move overhead could produce brief
MVFR/IFR from heavy rain showers and low cigs. The best chance
occurs through 0200Z. VCTS are expected on Friday at KELY and
KTPH after 2000Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Two stories across the fire district with central
and east-central Nevada warm and moist, with scattered to
numerous wet monsoonal thunderstorms through the forecast period.
Some storms will be flood producers. In northern Nevada, hot and
dry. Poor RH recovery with min RH's in the teens, generally.
However, winds should be on the lighter side with gustiness only
due to local afternoon heating.

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.HYDROLOGY...Lots of flash flood potential in northern Nye County
and White Pine County for the next couple days. In northern
Nevada, no rain in sight, which is "fortunate" since there are
numerous burn scars now. Martin Creek watershed is nearly devoid
of vegetation in most areas, and subject to flooding IF it rains,
which is not likely.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern
Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-White Pine County.

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98/88/88/98