Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
255 AM PDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with above normal temperatures across northern
Nevada today and Thursday, with near normal temperatures and
thunderstorm activity across central NV.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Weak trough energy moving
through the Pacific NW today will push dry and stable air down
into northern NV. As such, the northerly expansion of
thunderstorms up from central NV will be delayed. Temperatures
across northern NV will remain nearly 10 degrees above normal the
next couple days. As for central NV, thunderstorm activity will
redevelop today across most of northern Nye and White Pine
Counties, where temperatures will be near normal.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday.

Subtropical ridge over the Great Basin will be the prevailing
large scale pattern with subtle day to day changes. The best
diurnal convection will be a daily occurrence over the central
Nevada terrain, but convective threat diminishes farther north.

The highest probability for afternoon storms appears to be
Friday afternoon, as southeast flow keeps the monsoonal moisture
feed into Nevada. Convective potential may expand as far north as
the northern NV border. This moisture tap weakens as a trough
moves across the Pacific Northwest, shifting mid level flow
shifts to westerly by Saturday. Moisture continues to circulate
around the high core, but precipitable water values will be lower
with drier air along the northern border.

With respect to temperatures, above normal temps continues each
day, including the morning hours. Could be quite hot by next
Tuesday if the subtropical high becomes centered over Nevada.

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.AVIATION...Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KELY and
KTPH this afternoon. Strong wind gusts to 40 kts may occur from
nearby storms, with brief moderate to heavy rain if a storms moves
directly over the airport site.

KWMC, KBAM and KEKO will be in a drier and stable regime for the
next 24 hours, where no storms are expected.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Little to no northerly expansion of thunderstorm
activity today, with most storms centered over zones 455 and 457
where moderate to heavy rainfall is possible. For zones 467 468
and 469 along with northern 470, dry conditions continue, with
temperatures remaining around 10 degrees above normal.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
evening for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southeastern Elko County-White Pine County.

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