Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
343 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...
In near term, scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the
region this afternoon will persist into the evening hours before
diminishing although isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out especially near the coast. The weakening frontal
boundary to the north...a weak trough in mid levels moving
westward across the northern gulf coast region..and ample moisture
with precip water near 2 inches will result in another day of
above normal thunderstorm coverage from late Sunday morning
through the evening. With high precip water,  any strong
thunderstorms will be capable of localized heavy rain and minor
flood issue. Rain chances trend down slightly Monday as slightly
drier mid level air moves into region but still expect at least
scattered activity across the region. With early and fairly
widespread thunderstorm activity, max temps should hold at normal
to slightly below normal levels next few days.

.LONG TERM...
Mid level high pressure builds over central plains with mid level
trough extending over the eastern U.S. into the north central and
northeast Gulf. With mid level high being too far to the
northwest to greatly influence region with subsidence and
proximity of mid level trough just to our east should keep rain
chances near to above climatology for the remainder of the week.
Max temperatures should remain near normal

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly light wind regime expected most of week as surface
pressure gradient remains relaxed across the northern Gulf.
Scattered to locally numerous shower and thunderstorms activity
expected, especially Sunday and Monday, in the early to mid
morning with isolated waterspouts possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
Outside of convection, generally light winds and VFR conditions
will prevail through most of the period. Thunderstorms activity
should begin to diminish around 01-02Z. Thunderstorm activity
likely to develop along the coast 09-12Z Sunday and slowly move
and develop inland 15-18z and continues through 00Z. Isolated wind
gusts to 35 kt with strong thunderstorms.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe
         and/or excessive rain; direct tropical threats; Events
         of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  87  71  90 /  40  70  30  50
BTR  73  87  73  90 /  30  60  40  50
ASD  74  87  75  90 /  30  60  30  50
MSY  75  86  76  89 /  30  60  40  50
GPT  76  86  76  89 /  30  60  30  40
PQL  73  87  75  89 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-081045-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
542 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening
and slowly dissipate through the night. Severe weather is not
expected, but a few storms could become strong, producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall could
lead to ponding of water on area roadways, and in other low lying
and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Sunday. A few
storms could become strong producing frequent lightning, gusty
winds and periods of heavy rainfall.

Waterspouts will continue to be possible in marine areas on
Sunday, and could threaten near shore areas depending on location
and movement.

A return to more typical scattered afternoon thunderstorms is
expected Monday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
136 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BELLE CHASSE            29.85N 90.00W
07/07/2018  M2.50 INCH       PLAQUEMINES        LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
            OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS INDICATE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
            OF RAIN FELL IN UNDER AN HOUR.

&&

KGILMORE