Alert archive / Louisiana / River Flood Warnings in 2018
River Flood Warning 89, NWS New Orleans, LA
NWS New Orleans, LA issued this river flood warning at Dec 27, 2018, 8:52 PM CST for Washington Parish, Louisiana. It took effect at Dec 28, 2018, 2:20 AM CST. It was in force for 52 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 27, 2018, 8:52 PM CST (02:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 28, 2018, 2:20 AM CST
- Expired
- Dec 30, 2018, 6:00 AM CST
- In force
- 52 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New Orleans, LA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Washington Parish, LA
The river
Written for the forecast point Bogue Chitto River at Franklinton (FRNL1). The gauge peaked at 17.87 ft at Dec 28, 2018, 1:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 10 ft
- Minor stage
- 12 ft
- Moderate stage
- 16 ft
- Major stage
- 21 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02491500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
437 WGUS44 KLIX 280252 FLWLIX BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...The National Weather Service in New Orleans Baton Rouge has issued a flood warning for the following rivers in Mississippi... Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall Counties Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && MSC113-147-290852- /O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0088.181228T1832Z-181229T1621Z/ /TYTM6.1.ER.181228T1832Z.181229T0000Z.181229T1021Z.NO/ 852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a * Flood Warning for The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown. * Until Saturday, December 29. * At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 8.5 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 15.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage and continue to rise to near 16.0 feet by Friday December 28. The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday, December 29. * Impact...At 16.0 feet...The road through the middle of Hidden Springs Resort Park will begin to flood along with low-lying farm and pasture land near the river. * Impact...At 15.0 feet...Low-lying farm and pasture land near the river will flood. && LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018 $$ LAC117-290852- /O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0089.181228T1845Z-181230T0818Z/ /FRNL1.1.ER.181228T1845Z.181229T0600Z.181230T0218Z.NO/ 852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a * Flood Warning for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * Until Sunday, December 30. * At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday, December 28 and continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Saturday, December 29. The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday, December 29. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$ LAC103-290852- /O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0090.181229T0600Z-190101T2230Z/ /BSHL1.1.ER.181229T0600Z.181231T0600Z.190101T1630Z.NO/ 852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a * Flood Warning for The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush. * Until Tuesday, January 01. * At 8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 4.1 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 11.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday, December 29 and continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Monday, December 31. The river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday, January 01. * Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated. * Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 21. * Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21 will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge. && LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999 3081 9018 3081 9012 $$
6 follow-up statements
575 WGUS84 KLIX 280644 FLSLIX Flood Statement National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 1244 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && LAC117-291244- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.181228T1014Z-181230T0818Z/ /FRNL1.1.ER.181228T1014Z.181229T0600Z.181230T0218Z.NO/ 1244 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * Until Sunday, December 30. * At 12:00 AM Friday the stage was 11.3 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday, December 28 and continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Saturday, December 29. The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday, December 29. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$
121 WGUS84 KLIX 280824 FLSLIX Flood Statement National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish ...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall Counties Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && MSC113-147-291423- /O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0088.181228T1832Z-181229T1621Z/ /TYTM6.1.ER.181228T1832Z.181229T0000Z.181229T1021Z.NO/ 224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown. * Until Saturday December 29. * At 2:00 AM Friday the stage was 10.8 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 15.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday December 28 and continue to rise to near 16.0 feet by Friday December 28.the river will fall below flood stage by Saturday December 29. * Impact...At 16.0 feet...The road through the middle of Hidden Springs Resort Park will begin to flood along with low-lying farm and pasture land near the river. * Impact...At 15.0 feet...Low-lying farm and pasture land near the river will flood. && LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018 $$ LAC117-291423- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.181228T0820Z-181231T1021Z/ /FRNL1.1.ER.181228T0645Z.181229T0000Z.181231T0421Z.NO/ 224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...Flood Warning extended until Monday December 31...The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * Until Monday December 31. * At 2:00 AM Friday the stage was 13.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by Saturday December 29. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday December 30. * Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures, as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to recreational areas will flood. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$ LAC103-291423- /O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0090.181229T0600Z-190101T2230Z/ /BSHL1.1.ER.181229T0600Z.181231T0600Z.190101T1630Z.NO/ 224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush. * Until Tuesday January 01. * At 2:00 AM Friday the stage was 6.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 11.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday December 29 and continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Monday December 31.the river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday January 01. * Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated. * Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 21. * Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21 will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge. && LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999 3081 9018 3081 9012 $$ 24/RR
865 WGUS44 KLIX 281343 FLWLIX BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 743 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Minor Severity for the following rivers in Louisiana... ...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the following rivers in Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && LAC117-291943- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181231T0600Z/ /FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1800Z.181231T0000Z.NO/ 743 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * until late Sunday night. * At 7:00 AM Friday the stage was 15.6 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.0 feet by Friday December 28. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday December 30. * Impact...At 16.0 feet...Bogue Chitto Heights Subdivision will begin to flood. Some homes will be damaged. Homes on the west bank north of Louisiana Highway 10 will flood. It is recommended that sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to recreational areas will flood. * Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures, as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to recreational areas will flood. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$
259 WGUS84 KLIX 290201 FLSLIX Flood Statement National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 801 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && LAC117-300800- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181230T1800Z/ /FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1930Z.181230T1200Z.NO/ 801 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * Until Sunday, December 30. * At 7:00 PM Friday the stage was 17.3 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday, December 30. * Impact...At 16.0 feet...Bogue Chitto Heights Subdivision will begin to flood. Some homes will be damaged. Homes on the west bank north of Louisiana Highway 10 will flood. It is recommended that sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to recreational areas will flood. * Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures, as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to recreational areas will flood. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$ LAC103-300800- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-190102T1400Z/ /BSHL1.2.ER.181229T0220Z.181230T1800Z.190102T0800Z.NO/ 801 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush. * Until Wednesday, January 02. * At 7:15 PM Friday the stage was 10.9 feet. * Moderate flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 11.0 feet. * Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday, December 28 and continue to rise to near 15.0 feet by Sunday, December 30. The river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday, January 02. * Impact...At 15.0 feet...Homes near the river along Louisiana Highway 21 will be moderately flooded. The access road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated. * Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated. * Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 21. * Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21 will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge. && LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999 3081 9018 3081 9012 $$
609 WGUS84 KLIX 291439 FLSLIX Flood Statement National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 839 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && LAC117-300352- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181230T0352Z/ /FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1930Z.181229T2152Z.NO/ 839 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * Until Saturday December 29. * At 8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 14.3 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday December 29. * Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures, as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to recreational areas will flood. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$ LAC103-302039- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-190102T0900Z/ /BSHL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.181230T0000Z.190102T0300Z.NO/ 839 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018 The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush. * Until Wednesday January 02. * At 8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 14.3 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 11.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by Saturday December 29. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday January 01. * Impact...At 15.0 feet...Homes near the river along Louisiana Highway 21 will be moderately flooded. The access road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated. * Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated. * Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 21. * Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21 will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge. && LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999 3081 9018 3081 9012 $$
609 WGUS84 KLIX 300145 FLSLIX Flood Statement National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 745 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Louisiana... Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups. Turn around and don't drown! A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can also be found at Weather.Gov. && LAC117-301200- /O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181230T1200Z/ /FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1930Z.181230T0600Z.NO/ 745 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...Flood Warning extended until Sunday December 30...The Flood Warning continues for The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton. * Until Sunday December 30. * At 7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet. * Flood stage is 12.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday December 30. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish corrections facility will require flood protection measures as river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended && LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 27, 7:40 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 7:40 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
740 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
This evening's sounding was successful and had no issues noted.
The column is extremely moist with PW is at 1.90 inch which blew
the max moving average and daily max out of the water. This is
allowing current convection to be efficient rain producers. A
prominent dry slot is present right above 500mb but otherwise
most of the column is at least somewhat saturated. There is a
moderate amount of CAPE and fairly potent shear in both sfc- 1km
and sfc- 3km. Storm relative helicity is also high at just below
400 m2/s2. Despite the decent to favorable environment parameters,
lack of decent forcing seems to have kept any severe storms from
sparking up. -BL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...
..LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUBSIDES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
Very heavy and in some cases excessive rainfall capable of
producing localized flash flooding will continue in portions of
east central and southeast Louisiana and possibly portions of
south central and southeast Mississippi the remainder of this
afternoon into tonight. Greater than 3 to 4 inches of rainfall
has already occurred this afternoon in areas from in and around
Baton Rouge northeastward to south of McComb, and thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall continued to train through those areas.
Last few forecast updates and WPC QPF forecasts have continue to
bump up the precipitation amounts during the period through Friday
morning as the slow moving cold front will continue to encounter
copious amounts of moisture, upper level divergence and resultant
large scale lifting. Regarding the Flash Flood Watch, will leave
in place as is through 6 am Friday. Some heavier areal average
rainfall amounts of up to one inch are expected in some
southeastern coastal areas Friday morning, so if the boundary
hangs up and the training pattern looks to continue then some
areas might need to see the Flash Flood Watch extended.
Regarding the severe weather potential, despite the upper level
divergence the large-scale forcing for ascent has been lifting
well north of the central Gulf coast region as the center of the
low moves northeast. This should limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms the remainder of this afternoon and evening.
Rainfall is expected to diminish from the northwest later tonight
into Friday as the cold front pushes southeast. This should leave
any lingering showers confined to mostly immediate coastal areas
by late Friday morning or afternoon and continuing into Friday
night. The re-energizing of the Desert Southwest upper trough will
push the northeast to southwest oriented axis southeastward again
with backing winds aloft expected over the western to central Gulf
coast. This will set up a classic over-running pattern with rain
and convection developing back inland across the forecast area
through the day on Saturday and waves of activity should impact
the area into Sunday. While rain chances will be elevated, there
will likely be areas that experience substantial dry hours.
Temperatures will be quite variable depending on what side of the
front you are on and how strong the cold air advection is. Even
with the front pushing towards the coast late tonight and Friday
morning, it should remain mild with above normal temperatures on
Friday, but then trending cooler over the more inland areas on
Saturday before recovering back to mild to warm highs again on
Sunday.
LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
The models are in decent agreement with the larger scale pattern
through about Tuesday then diverge in the middle to latter part of
the week. One potent shortwave trough and associated surface low
and moderate to strong cold front will move through Monday
afternoon and evening with another round of showers and some
thunderstorms. Much cooler air is then expected to move into the
region Tuesday into Wednesday with a cold rain possible on
Wednesday as a weak Gulf low moves along a stalled front over the
north Gulf. 22/TD
AVIATION...
Fairly widespread IFR to low MVFR conditions will prevail through
Friday with a greater hazard and lower conditions expected to
continue with stronger TSRA that impact the terminals. Some low
level wind shear may continue at some airports through this
evening due to stronger south to southwest winds just above the
surface. 22/TD
MARINE...
Synoptic scale pressure gradient will maintain strong onshore
winds well in advance of the cold front, but will collapse to
lighter levels closer to the front as it approaches. The cold
front will slow down and stall near the coast Friday into
Saturday. This may result in some sea fog formation at times
though ongoing intermittent rain may disrupt fog developments.
Onshore flow regime to linger through Monday before a better surge
advances into the gulf Monday night. Small Craft Advisory are
conditions likely to return for much by late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a weak low pressure system moves east across the
north Gulf and colder air is drawn south. 22/TD
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Orange.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall and
River Flooding.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 67 49 55 / 90 20 20 60
BTR 58 67 52 58 / 90 20 30 70
ASD 64 69 56 62 / 100 60 30 60
MSY 62 67 58 62 / 100 60 30 60
GPT 65 69 56 62 / 100 80 40 50
PQL 66 71 58 64 / 100 80 40 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 4:52 PM CST, 4 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New Orleans LA 452 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037- 039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-281100- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound- Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound- Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM- Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM- Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm- Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana- East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville- West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption- St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles- Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard- Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson- Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa- Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River- Hancock-Harrison-Jackson- 452 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 6am Friday morning. Widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain have already fallen and an additional 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are still possible through tonight. There remains a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather. One or two short lived tornadoes and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with any severe thunderstorm. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through tonight for the coastal waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until mid-morning Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur again next Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible next Monday night into Tuesday morning along and ahead of a strong cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through tonight for severe thunderstorm and heavy rain potential. Report any observed severe weather damage or flooding promptly to the NWS office in Slidell, Louisiana.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 27, 3:04 PM CST, 5 hours 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
304 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NE PONCHATOULA 30.44N 90.44W
12/26/2018 TANGIPAHOA LA EMERGENCY MNGR
*** 1 FATAL *** A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND FELL ON A CAMPER AND AN
OCCUPANT INSIDE. THE OCCUPANT WAS PRONOUNCED DEAD AT THE
SCENE.
&&
LIXLocal storm report, Dec 27, 3:08 PM CST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
308 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM FLASH FLOOD ZACHARY 30.66N 91.15W
12/27/2018 EAST BATON ROUGE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN ZACHARY. REPORT RELAYED VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA AND CHAT.
0300 PM FLASH FLOOD BATON ROUGE 30.45N 91.13W
12/27/2018 EAST BATON ROUGE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
PORTIONS OF I-110 AROUND THE GOVERNORS MANSION ARE BEING
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND
CHAT.
&&
LIXLocal storm report, Dec 27, 6:43 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
643 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BATON ROUGE 30.45N 91.13W
12/27/2018 EAST BATON ROUGE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN SHERWOOD. CASUED BY POSSIBLE WAKE
LOW. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
0615 PM FLASH FLOOD FRANKLINTON 30.85N 90.14W
12/27/2018 WASHINGTON LA EMERGENCY MNGR
A FEW ROADS BEGINNING TO FLOOD IN WASHINGTON PARISH.
&&
LIXLocal storm report, Dec 27, 8:12 PM CST, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 ESE DEXTER 31.04N 89.88W
12/27/2018 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR
HIGHWAY 48 CLOSED IN WALTHALL COUNTY EAST OF DEXTER.ONE
HIGH WATER RESCUE ALONG HIGHWAY 48.
&&
LIXThe office that day
Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 7:48 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | East Baton Rouge, Livingston | 61 hr |
| Dec 27, 7:48 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | East Baton Rouge | 4 days |
| Dec 27, 7:54 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Helena | 36 hr |
| Dec 27, 7:54 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Livingston | 3 days |
| Dec 27, 7:54 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Helena | 42 hr |
| Dec 27, 8:17 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 51 hr |
| Dec 27, 8:52 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 12 days |
| Dec 27, 9:30 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Washington | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 10:31 PM CST | Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas | LIX | 7 hr | |
| Dec 27, 11:22 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 23 min | |
| Dec 27, 11:25 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | LIX | Lafourche, Saint Charles, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist, Terrebonne | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 11:39 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Saint Tammany | 36 min |
| Dec 27, 11:42 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Saint Tammany | 33 min |
| Dec 27, 11:51 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 24 min | |
| Dec 28, 12:32 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 58 min | |
| Dec 28, 12:42 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany, Washington | 3 hr |
| Dec 28, 1:33 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Charles | 3 hr |
| Dec 28, 2:11 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | LIX | Lafourche, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Terrebonne | 2 hr |
| Dec 28, 3:21 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Orleans | 39 min |
| Dec 28, 4:20 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 85 min | |
| Dec 28, 4:22 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Plaquemines | 53 min |
| Dec 28, 5:37 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 113 min | |
| Dec 28, 5:41 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | LIX | Plaquemines | 3 hr |
| Dec 28, 10:08 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 52 min | |
| Dec 28, 3:19 PM CST | Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas | LIX | 7 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.