Alert archive / Louisiana / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 89, NWS New Orleans, LA

December 27, 2018Washington Parish, Louisiana

NWS New Orleans, LA issued this river flood warning at Dec 27, 2018, 8:52 PM CST for Washington Parish, Louisiana. It took effect at Dec 28, 2018, 2:20 AM CST. It was in force for 52 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2018, 8:52 PM CST (02:52 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 28, 2018, 2:20 AM CST
Expired
Dec 30, 2018, 6:00 AM CST
In force
52 hr
Issued by
NWS New Orleans, LA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Washington Parish, LA

The river

Written for the forecast point Bogue Chitto River at Franklinton (FRNL1). The gauge peaked at 17.87 ft at Dec 28, 2018, 1:00 PM CST.

actionminormoderate05101512/2812/2912/3012/31
Action stage
10 ft
Minor stage
12 ft
Moderate stage
16 ft
Major stage
21 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02491500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

437 
WGUS44 KLIX 280252
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...The National Weather Service in New Orleans Baton Rouge has issued
a flood warning for the following rivers in Mississippi...
Louisiana... 

  Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall 
  Counties
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-147-290852-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0088.181228T1832Z-181229T1621Z/
/TYTM6.1.ER.181228T1832Z.181229T0000Z.181229T1021Z.NO/
852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown.
* Until Saturday, December 29.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 8.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage and continue to rise to near 
  16.0 feet by Friday December 28.  The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday, December 29.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...The road through the middle of Hidden 
  Springs Resort Park will begin to flood along with low-lying farm 
  and pasture land near the river.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Low-lying farm and pasture land near the 
  river will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018

$$

LAC117-290852-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0089.181228T1845Z-181230T0818Z/
/FRNL1.1.ER.181228T1845Z.181229T0600Z.181230T0218Z.NO/
852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Sunday, December 30.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday, December 28 and 
  continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Saturday, December 29. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday, December 29.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015

$$

LAC103-290852-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0090.181229T0600Z-190101T2230Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.181229T0600Z.181231T0600Z.190101T1630Z.NO/
852 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until Tuesday, January 01.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 4.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday, December 29 and 
  continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Monday, December 31.  The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Tuesday, January 01.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream 
  side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access
  road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999
3081 9018 3081 9012

$$
6 follow-up statements
575 
WGUS84 KLIX 280644
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1244 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC117-291244-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.181228T1014Z-181230T0818Z/
/FRNL1.1.ER.181228T1014Z.181229T0600Z.181230T0218Z.NO/
1244 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Sunday, December 30.
* At 12:00 AM Friday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday, December 28 and 
  continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Saturday, December 29.  The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday, December 29.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015

$$
121 
WGUS84 KLIX 280824
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Louisiana...

  Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall 
  Counties 

  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-147-291423-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0088.181228T1832Z-181229T1621Z/
/TYTM6.1.ER.181228T1832Z.181229T0000Z.181229T1021Z.NO/
224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown.
* Until Saturday December 29.
* At  2:00 AM Friday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday December 28 and 
  continue to rise to near 16.0 feet by Friday December 28.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday December 29.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...The road through the middle of Hidden 
  Springs Resort Park will begin to flood along with low-lying farm 
  and pasture land near the river.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Low-lying farm and pasture land near the 
  river will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018


$$

LAC117-291423-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.181228T0820Z-181231T1021Z/
/FRNL1.1.ER.181228T0645Z.181229T0000Z.181231T0421Z.NO/
224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Monday December 31...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Monday December 31.
* At  2:00 AM Friday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by 
  Saturday December 29. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  December 30.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both 
  banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility 
  will require flood protection measures, as river front property 
  will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that 
  sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access
  roads to recreational areas will flood.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015


$$

LAC103-291423-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0090.181229T0600Z-190101T2230Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.181229T0600Z.181231T0600Z.190101T1630Z.NO/
224 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until Tuesday January 01.
* At  2:00 AM Friday the stage was 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday December 29 and 
  continue to rise to near 13.0 feet by Monday December 31.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by Tuesday January 01.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream 
  side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access
  road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.


&&

LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999
3081 9018 3081 9012


$$

24/RR
865 
WGUS44 KLIX 281343
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
743 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Minor Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.



Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!



A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC117-291943-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181231T0600Z/
/FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1800Z.181231T0000Z.NO/
743 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* until late Sunday night.
* At  7:00 AM Friday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.0 feet by 
  Friday December 28. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  December 30.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Bogue Chitto Heights Subdivision will begin 
  to flood. Some homes will be damaged. Homes on the west bank north 
  of Louisiana Highway 10 will flood. It is recommended that sand and
  gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to
  recreational areas will flood.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both 
  banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility 
  will require flood protection measures, as river front property 
  will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that 
  sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access
  roads to recreational areas will flood.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015






$$
259 
WGUS84 KLIX 290201
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
801 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC117-300800-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181230T1800Z/
/FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1930Z.181230T1200Z.NO/
801 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Sunday, December 30.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday, December 30.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Bogue Chitto Heights Subdivision will begin 
  to flood. Some homes will be damaged. Homes on the west bank north 
  of Louisiana Highway 10 will flood. It is recommended that sand and
  gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access roads to
  recreational areas will flood.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both 
  banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility 
  will require flood protection measures, as river front property 
  will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that 
  sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access
  roads to recreational areas will flood.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended.


&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015

$$

LAC103-300800-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-190102T1400Z/
/BSHL1.2.ER.181229T0220Z.181230T1800Z.190102T0800Z.NO/
801 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until Wednesday, January 02.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday, December 28 and 
  continue to rise to near 15.0 feet by Sunday, December 30.  The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Wednesday, January 02.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Homes near the river along Louisiana Highway
  21 will be moderately flooded. The access road upstream of the 
  bridge will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream 
  side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access
  road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999
3081 9018 3081 9012

$$
609 
WGUS84 KLIX 291439
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
839 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 
  
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC117-300352-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181230T0352Z/
/FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1930Z.181229T2152Z.NO/
839 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Saturday December 29.
* At  8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday December 29.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...There will be minor flooding along both 
  banks. The National Guard Armory and parish corrections facility 
  will require flood protection measures, as river front property 
  will flood. Sand bagging is recommended. It is recommended that 
  sand and gravel operations be stopped and equipment secured. Access
  roads to recreational areas will flood.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015

$$

LAC103-302039-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-190102T0900Z/
/BSHL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.181230T0000Z.190102T0300Z.NO/
839 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until Wednesday January 02.
* At  8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by 
  Saturday December 29. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday
  January 01.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Homes near the river along Louisiana Highway
  21 will be moderately flooded. The access road upstream of the 
  bridge will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Homes in low-lying areas on the downstream 
  side of Louisiana Highway 21 near the bridge will flood. The access
  road upstream of the bridge will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999
3081 9018 3081 9012





$$
609 
WGUS84 KLIX 300145
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
745 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC117-301200-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181230T1200Z/
/FRNL1.2.ER.181228T0645Z.181228T1930Z.181230T0600Z.NO/
745 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday December 30...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Sunday December 30.
* At  7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday December 30.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015






$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 27, 7:40 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 7:40 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
740 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
This evening's sounding was successful and had no issues noted.
The column is extremely moist with PW is at 1.90 inch which blew
the max moving average and daily max out of the water. This is
allowing current convection to be efficient rain producers. A
prominent dry slot is present right above 500mb but otherwise
most of the column is at least somewhat saturated. There is a
moderate amount of CAPE and fairly potent shear in both sfc- 1km
and sfc- 3km. Storm relative helicity is also high at just below
400 m2/s2. Despite the decent to favorable environment parameters,
lack of decent forcing seems to have kept any severe storms from
sparking up. -BL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...

..LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUBSIDES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

Very heavy and in some cases excessive rainfall capable of
producing localized flash flooding will continue in portions of
east central and southeast Louisiana and possibly portions of
south central and southeast Mississippi the remainder of this
afternoon into tonight. Greater than 3 to 4 inches of rainfall
has already occurred this afternoon in areas from in and around
Baton Rouge northeastward to south of McComb, and thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall continued to train through those areas.
Last few forecast updates and WPC QPF forecasts have continue to
bump up the precipitation amounts during the period through Friday
morning as the slow moving cold front will continue to encounter
copious amounts of moisture, upper level divergence and resultant
large scale lifting. Regarding the Flash Flood Watch, will leave
in place as is through 6 am Friday. Some heavier areal average
rainfall amounts of up to one inch are expected in some
southeastern coastal areas Friday morning, so if the boundary
hangs up and the training pattern looks to continue then some
areas might need to see the Flash Flood Watch extended.

Regarding the severe weather potential, despite the upper level
divergence the large-scale forcing for ascent has been lifting
well north of the central Gulf coast region as the center of the
low moves northeast. This should limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms the remainder of this afternoon and evening.

Rainfall is expected to diminish from the northwest later tonight
into Friday as the cold front pushes southeast. This should leave
any lingering showers confined to mostly immediate coastal areas
by late Friday morning or afternoon and continuing into Friday
night. The re-energizing of the Desert Southwest upper trough will
push the northeast to southwest oriented axis southeastward again
with backing winds aloft expected over the western to central Gulf
coast. This will set up a classic over-running pattern with rain
and convection developing back inland across the forecast area
through the day on Saturday and waves of activity should impact
the area into Sunday. While rain chances will be elevated, there
will likely be areas that experience substantial dry hours.
Temperatures will be quite variable depending on what side of the
front you are on and how strong the cold air advection is. Even
with the front pushing towards the coast late tonight and Friday
morning, it should remain mild with above normal temperatures on
Friday, but then trending cooler over the more inland areas on
Saturday before recovering back to mild to warm highs again on
Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...

The models are in decent agreement with the larger scale pattern
through about Tuesday then diverge in the middle to latter part of
the week. One potent shortwave trough and associated surface low
and moderate to strong cold front will move through Monday
afternoon and evening with another round of showers and some
thunderstorms. Much cooler air is then expected to move into the
region Tuesday into Wednesday with a cold rain possible on
Wednesday as a weak Gulf low moves along a stalled front over the
north Gulf. 22/TD

AVIATION...

Fairly widespread IFR to low MVFR conditions will prevail through
Friday with a greater hazard and lower conditions expected to
continue with stronger TSRA that impact the terminals. Some low
level wind shear may continue at some airports through this
evening due to stronger south to southwest winds just above the
surface. 22/TD

MARINE...

Synoptic scale pressure gradient will maintain strong onshore
winds well in advance of the cold front, but will collapse to
lighter levels closer to the front as it approaches. The cold
front will slow down and stall near the coast Friday into
Saturday. This may result in some sea fog formation at times
though ongoing intermittent rain may disrupt fog developments.
Onshore flow regime to linger through Monday before a better surge
advances into the gulf Monday night. Small Craft Advisory are
conditions likely to return for much by late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a weak low pressure system moves east across the
north Gulf and colder air is drawn south. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Orange.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall and
            River Flooding.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  67  49  55 /  90  20  20  60
BTR  58  67  52  58 /  90  20  30  70
ASD  64  69  56  62 / 100  60  30  60
MSY  62  67  58  62 / 100  60  30  60
GPT  65  69  56  62 / 100  80  40  50
PQL  66  71  58  64 / 100  80  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 4:52 PM CST, 4 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
452 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-281100-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
452 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 6am Friday morning.
Widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain have already fallen and an
additional 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are still
possible through tonight.

There remains a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather. One or
two short lived tornadoes and wind gusts up to 60 mph are
possible with any severe thunderstorm.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect through tonight for the
coastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until mid-morning
Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur again next
Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible next Monday night into Tuesday morning
along and ahead of a strong cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through tonight
for severe thunderstorm and heavy rain potential. Report any
observed severe weather damage or flooding promptly to the NWS
office in Slidell, Louisiana.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 27, 3:04 PM CST, 5 hours 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
304 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NE PONCHATOULA          30.44N 90.44W
12/26/2018                   TANGIPAHOA         LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY
            NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND FELL ON A CAMPER AND AN
            OCCUPANT INSIDE. THE OCCUPANT WAS PRONOUNCED DEAD AT THE
            SCENE.

&&

LIX
Local storm report, Dec 27, 3:08 PM CST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
308 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ZACHARY                 30.66N 91.15W
12/27/2018                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN ZACHARY. REPORT RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA AND CHAT.

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BATON ROUGE             30.45N 91.13W
12/27/2018                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PORTIONS OF I-110 AROUND THE GOVERNORS MANSION ARE BEING
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND
            CHAT.

&&

LIX
Local storm report, Dec 27, 6:43 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
643 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BATON ROUGE             30.45N 91.13W
12/27/2018                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN SHERWOOD. CASUED BY POSSIBLE WAKE
            LOW. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FRANKLINTON             30.85N 90.14W
12/27/2018                   WASHINGTON         LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW ROADS BEGINNING TO FLOOD IN WASHINGTON PARISH.

&&

LIX
Local storm report, Dec 27, 8:12 PM CST, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 ESE DEXTER            31.04N 89.88W
12/27/2018                   WALTHALL           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 48 CLOSED IN WALTHALL COUNTY EAST OF DEXTER.ONE
            HIGH WATER RESCUE ALONG HIGHWAY 48.

&&

LIX

The office that day

Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 7:48 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, Livingston61 hr
Dec 27, 7:48 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge4 days
Dec 27, 7:54 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena36 hr
Dec 27, 7:54 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXLivingston3 days
Dec 27, 7:54 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena42 hr
Dec 27, 8:17 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany51 hr
Dec 27, 8:52 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany12 days
Dec 27, 9:30 PM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXWashington3 hr
Dec 27, 10:31 PM CSTSmall Craft Advisory for Hazardous SeasLIX7 hr
Dec 27, 11:22 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX23 min
Dec 27, 11:25 PM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXLafourche, Saint Charles, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist, Terrebonne3 hr
Dec 27, 11:39 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXSaint Tammany36 min
Dec 27, 11:42 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXSaint Tammany33 min
Dec 27, 11:51 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX24 min
Dec 28, 12:32 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX58 min
Dec 28, 12:42 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany, Washington3 hr
Dec 28, 1:33 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXSaint Charles3 hr
Dec 28, 2:11 AM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXLafourche, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Terrebonne2 hr
Dec 28, 3:21 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXOrleans39 min
Dec 28, 4:20 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX85 min
Dec 28, 4:22 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPlaquemines53 min
Dec 28, 5:37 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX113 min
Dec 28, 5:41 AM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXPlaquemines3 hr
Dec 28, 10:08 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX52 min
Dec 28, 3:19 PM CSTSmall Craft Advisory for Hazardous SeasLIX7 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.