Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.AVIATION...

Satellite and radar imagery show a cold front extending from north
of KAEX southwestward to north of KBMT. The front will continue to
progress southward through the region reaching KAEX/KBPT between 18Z-
19Z, KLCH between 19Z-20Z, and KARA/KLFT between 22Z-16/00Z. Ahead
of the front MVFR ceilings will prevail with VCTS and
light/variable winds. Behind the front, showers will continue
through the evening with ceilings lowering to IFR overnight. Winds
behind the front will become northerly at 10-15 knots with
occasional gusts to 20-25 knots. Gusts will come to an end late
tonight but winds will remain around 10 knots through tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1110 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Generally minor updates to most first period grids to bring them
in line with latest observations/trends concerning incoming wavy
CDFNT that currently extends near a line from Natchitoches, to
Jasper, to just east of Houston. Boundary will continue slowly
eastward through the day, with most of the area warming into the
mid/upper 80s ahead of it. Scattered/numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially along/S of I-10.

Small craft advisories have been issued for the western and
central Gulf zones for the gusty N winds expected behind the front
later this afternoon and tonight, with exercise caution headlined
for Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 811 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning update to cancel the coastal flood advisory a little
early, with latest observations indicating levels below criteria
and falling. SE winds are forecast to diminish today followed by
an offshore flow developing tonight behind a CDFNT. No additional
minor coastal flooding is expected.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows a cold front extending from low
pressure near the Ozarks across the Arklatex to the TX Hill
Country. with a trailing trof back across ern/cntl TX. Regional
88Ds show numerous showers with a few thunderstorms primarily
along/behind the front at this time. Additional convection is
noted over the Gulf and moving nwd toward the coastal waters as
well.

The cold front to our nw will make steady progress sewd through
the forecast area today, with showers and a few thunderstorms
expected to develop along/ahead of it as we move through the
morning. Highest POPs are being carried along/south of I-10 across
swrn LA. Elevated rain chances linger into the evening before
diminishing somewhat for the overnight hours. Highs today will
range from the mid 70s nwrn zones to the mid 80s across lower
Acadiana...however temps are expected to drop once the front
passes, with readings across the nwrn zones likely down into the
60s by sunset.

Rain chances pick up again Tuesday as overrunning sets up. Highs
Tuesday are progged to remain in the 50s across the extreme nwrn
areas as CAA develops behind the front, along with persistent
cloud cover. The cooler air is expected to encroach the entire
area by Tuesday night with lows mainly in the 50s...some upper 40s
will be possible across the nrn tier of zones.

After a drier mid-week with just limited rain chances as ridging
re-develops over the nrn Gulf, POPs begin to elevate again Friday
and Saturday as our next cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Our coolest temps of the season are forecast for Sunday
night/Monday morning with readings into the mid/upper 40s across
much of the nrn 1/2 of the area.

MARINE...
Will not be extending the Coastal Flood Advisory beyond the
inherited expiration time of 14z as progs indicate later high
tides will not yield advisory-criteria water levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  55  60  52 /  50  40  40  40
LCH  85  63  69  58 /  80  60  50  30
LFT  88  66  73  61 /  70  60  40  30
BPT  84  64  66  59 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Tuesday for GMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ452-472.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through Tuesday morning for GMZ430-432.

&&

AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
520 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
161100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
520 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will move through the area today with numerous
showers and some storms expected into tonight. Organized severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and a few storms will linger into mid-week as a
warm moist flow aloft overrides the cooler surface air. Higher
rain chances return Friday and the weekend as the next cold front
approaches, then crosses the area. Severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-161100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
520 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Tides will begin to diminish later today as northerly winds
accompanying a cold front move into the coastal waters. A coastal
flood advisory is in effect through mid-morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop behind the front
and linger through mid-week, as will scattered showers and storms.
After winds finally relax toward the end of the work week, another
frontal passage will bring another round of elevated offshore flow
for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

25

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