Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1140 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through the
afternoon with a few showers continuing. Prevailing ceilings will
lower into LIFR/IFR overnight with a few showers returning after
sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018/

UPDATE...
An upper level low is located over eastern Oklahoma this morning
with a short wave swinging around the low into east Texas.
Meanwhile, a surface low pressure wave is located just off the
southeast Texas coast with a warm front extending east of the low
across the coastal waters. The upper level low will continue to
move east during the day, with moisture being lifted ahead of the
low and over the warm frontal boundary, resulting in shower
activity for the forecast area. This activity will gradually taper
off during the afternoon hours from west to east as the short wave
swings through and somewhat of a dry slot then overtakes the
forecast area. Made some minor adjustments to the pops based on
current radar observations and latest short term guidance, and
basically to show the downward trend of pops in the afternoon.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018/

AVIATION...Drizzle and light rain is moving through the area this
morning, however heavier showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
are expected later in the morning. Tempo groups have been added to
the TAFs to reflect this. Light east to SE winds will gradually
veer SW then NW through the period as low pressure lifts
northeast. Ceilings are also expected lower behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Thursday night
Main forecast issue will be rain chances through the period.  Skies
were cloudy across the area. A wide range of temperatures were noted
with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across central
Louisiana to the upper 50s in southeast Texas.  Some light rain
shower activity was noted across the far western parts of the
forecast area.  Rain coverage will increase areawide today as low
pressure in south Texas lifts northeast today. Overall, believe
thunder potential will be low with best chance along I10 Corridor
later today. With low passing northeast...POPs will be lower
especially over southern areas for tonight. Will maintain chance
POPs on Thursday as moisture will likely pool ahead of an
approaching cold front. POPs will decrease from west to east
Thursday night. Windy conditions are likely Thursday afternoon
with wind gusts approaching 30 knots along I10 corridor. Winds
will slowly diminish Thursday night.

Long Term...Friday through Tuesday
High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry weather
through Saturday. Models show slow progression of front into the
Gulf coast states on Sunday and continuing through early next week.
Based on moisture and thte progs, POPs should be low at best.  For
now will keep POPs in the 15-20 percent range during most of the
period. Temperatures should be above normal with maximums
forecasted in the upper 60s Christmas eve and near or just above
70 on Christmas Day.

MARINE...
Easterly winds today will transition to stronger offshore
flow behind the front on Thursday. Winds gusts forecasts over the
waters were well above 35 knots beginning around 18Z
Thursday...therefore a gale watch will be issued. Winds will
diminish on Friday as high pressure builds over the Gulf. Weak
onshore flow is anticipated for Sunday as the frontal boundary
approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  55  48  52  38 /  80  30  80  30
LCH  63  50  58  41 /  70  20  40  10
LFT  62  51  56  41 /  70  20  60  40
BPT  63  51  59  42 /  70  20  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
413 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
201015-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
413 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Rain chances will increase today as an area of low pressure moves
through the area. A few thunderstorms especially south of Highway
190 may develop as well. The storms may produce brief heavy rain
but no severe weather is anticipated. The chance for thunderstorms
will likely end after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Rain chances will decrease on Thursday. Windy conditions are
expected across coastal areas. Mostly dry weather is forecasted
through the weekend. Low rain chances are forecasted early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-201015-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
413 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Rain chances will increase today as an area of low pressure moves
through the area. A few thunderstorms may develop as well. The
storms may produce brief heavy rain but no severe weather is
anticipated. The chance for thunderstorms will likely end after
sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Rain chances will decrease on Thursday. Windy conditions are
expected across bay and offshore waters. Gale force conditions are
expected to develop by Thursday afternoon and continue through
Thursday night. Winds will diminish on Friday as high pressure
builds across the area.

Mostly dry weather is forecasted through the weekend. Low rain
chances are forecasted early next week. No marine hazards are
anticipated for this weekend and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.