Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Lake Charles, LA

704 
WGUS64 KLCH 110355
FFALCH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
955 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

LAZ028-029-031>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-110500-
/O.CAN.KLCH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180211T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rapides-Avoyelles-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Calcasieu-
Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-
Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville,
Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Oakdale, Kinder, 
Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, 
Opelousas, Eunice, Lake Charles, Sulphur, Hathaway, Jennings, 
Topsy, Roanoke, Welsh, Lake Arthur, Crowley, Rayne, Branch, 
Church Point, Richard, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, Cade, 
St. Martinville, Abbeville, Intracoastal City, Meaux, 
Forked Island, Kaplan, New Iberia, Morgan City, Burns Point, 
Centerville, Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, 
Stephensville, Hackberry, Johnson Bayou, Grand Lake, Klondike, 
Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, and Rutherford Beach
955 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, and southwest Louisiana has been cancelled.

Areas of rain with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be possible the rest of the night. The risk of this
additional rainfall causing widespread or significant flooding 
has diminished, though this activity could result in localized 
minor flooding in low lying or urban areas.

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

.AVIATION...
Line of storms extends from southern Vernon parish south into the
gulf... offshore of Sabine Pass...line is pushing east. The line
will lower ceilings and visibility. Cloud to ground lightning will
accompany the line. The ceiling will vary from OVC003 to OVC025
acrs srn La. Drier air is beginning to push into se Tx w/ rain
chances falling at this time and VSBY improving and ceilings
improving... expected flight conditions to vary from IFR to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 937 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

UPDATE...
Radar still indicating lots of rain over the area this morning
Rains to continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Current
zones are fine.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
For the 10/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Forecast area is on the warm and very moist side of a frontal
boundary. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance in the southern
stream will move out of east Texas and across the region. The
disturbance combining with the moist air mass will produce
widespread shower activity with a few thunderstorms. The mix of
moderate to heavy rainfall from the showers...sea fog moving in
from the Gulf...and very low cloud decks...will make for LIFR/IFR
conditions throughout the day. Widespread shower activity will end
west to east during the afternoon hours. However, cold frontal
boundary will not push into the forecast area until the very end
of the TAF period. Therefore, IFR/LIFR conditions from very low
clouds, patchy fog, and scattered showers, will persist through
the end of the forecast period.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Today through Sunday)

A wet start to the weekend is expected across SE Texas and SW
Louisiana today as an upper level trough progresses across the
region. The 00Z KLCH upper air sounding recorded a PWAT value of
1.71" which, while not being a daily record, is above the average
maximum for early-to- mid February of 1.60" per the SPC
Climatology. In addition to the abundant deep layer moisture, a
tall, skinny CAPE profile and warm cloud depth around 3km indicate
an environment that will support efficient rainfall production.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase from west
to east throughout the day as forcing for ascent increases across the
region. Showers and a few thunderstorms will remain likely through late
this evening before a surface cold front moves through the region early
Sunday morning. However, the shallow nature of the cold front will allow
for overrunning precipitation to linger through the afternoon on Sunday
into Sunday night.

Overall, widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches, with isolated pockets
of 4 inches or more possible, through Monday morning. Soil moisture
across the area is running around 70% and the latest 1HR/3HR
flash flood guidance are both generally around 2-4 inches. While
rainfall may be heavy at times, these factors combined with the
duration of rainfall should limit the threat of flooding across
the region. Therefore, WPC is now only highlighting the area in a
Marginal Risk of flooding rainfall today. This should translate to
the main threat of flooding being limited to streets and poor
drainage areas.

Across the far southeastern portions of the CWA, limited coverage of
showers early in the day along with a few breaks in cloud cover
could allow for some weak surface based instability to developed.
The combination of 500-750 J/kg of SBCAPE and 0-6 km shear around
30 knots could support one or two more organized storms ahead of
the cold front. The primary threat of any strong to marginally
severe storm that can develop will be damaging winds.

Long Term (Monday through Friday)

Upper level ridging is expected to develop in advance of a trough
digging into the western CONUS by the middle of next week. The
associated surface high pressure will result in return flow that
will usher increased deep layer moisture back into the region.
While there will be a slight chance for showers each day, the
good news is that the latest model guidance is indicating a better
chance of dry conditions for outdoor activities on Lundi Gras,
Fat Tuesday, Ash Wednesday, Valentines Day, Singles Awareness Day,
National Plum Pudding Day, and any other day that may be
celebrated during the early-to-middle part of next week.
Temperatures are expected to be above average during this time
range with highs ranging from the mid 60s/low 70s on Tuesday to
the mid 70s by Thursday and Friday.

MARINE...

Onshore flow ushering warm, moist air over the cooler coastal
waters has resulting in the development of sea fog this morning.
While dense sea fog is only expected through mid-morning, patchy
sea fog will likely continue through late tonight into early
tomorrow morning when a cold front will move through the coastal
waters.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the coastal
waters today through Sunday ahead of the cold front. A moderate to
strong offshore is expected to develop behind the front and a Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the waters west of
Intracoastal City from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Offshore flow will continue Tuesday before high pressure begins to
build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico resulting in the
redevelopment of onshore flow. Light onshore flow will then continue
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  53  41  52 /  70  50  40  20
LCH  60  61  46  56 /  80  50  40  20
LFT  64  67  48  57 /  80  70  50  30
BPT  56  57  44  57 /  70  50  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
400 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
112200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
400 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Flash Flood watch for portions of southern Louisiana. Rains
continue to train across southern Louisiana this afternoon. Radar
is indicating one to three inches has fallen. With the ground
completely saturated additional rains will run off into low lying
areas and bayous. An additional two to four will be possible
through sunrise on Sunday. A cold front around sunrise tomorrow
will finally drive the rains off to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Rains ending on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-112200-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
400 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Areas of sea fog will reduce visibility to one mile and result in
navigating hazardous tonight.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters will
continue through tonight. Some storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and cloud to water lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Moderate to strong offshore flow is expected to develop in the
wake of a cold front Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1108 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

LAZ041-073-074-101800-
West Cameron LA-Calcasieu LA-East Cameron LA-
1108 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMERON AND
CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL NOON CST...

At 1108 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Vinton to 7 miles northwest of Hackberry
to 7 miles east of Sabine Pass. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Sulphur, Westlake, Vinton, Iowa, Grand Lake, Lake
Charles Regional Airport, Starks, Moss Bluff, Sabine National
Wildlife, Carlyss, Lunita, Hacketts Corner, Buhler, Heberts Marina,
Lebleu Settlement, Gillis, Edgerly, Hackberry and Sweet Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 9380 3004 9369 3034 9370 3041 9339
      3038 9303 3026 9303 3026 9300 3016 9300
      3015 9296 2984 9321 2984 9333 2986 9324
      3005 9329 3005 9333 2985 9335 2987 9335
      2988 9340 2986 9344 2984 9340 2983 9340
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 246DEG 32KT 3025 9358 3006 9352 2974 9378

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