Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
910 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows cool front moving through Southeast Texas and the Southern
Louisiana coastal parishes this evening. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms continue around the frontal boundary,
both ahead and behind, with one large severe thunderstorm over
Hardin county in Southeast Texas at this time. Patchy to areas of
fog will continue ahead of the boundary along the SE TX, LA
coastal areas into the coastal waters out 20nm this evening and
early Thursday morning. Updated near term forecast for current
trends and latest guidance, increasing chances further south into
the coastal waters this evening into early Thursday morning.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT continuing to make slow but steady progress this afternoon,
and is just now entering the TX Lakes region into Central LA
based on SFC OBS and Visible satellite imagery. Boundary is
expected to continue SWD this evening, reaching near the coast by
around midnight. SCTD/NMRS convection is possible through the
evening, with coverage expected to decrease (though not completely
disappear) thereafter. Some potential for patchy fog during the
evening and overnight hours, primarily I-10 south through
midnight, then a little closer to the coast. Per shallow nature of
the front, very low stratus and BR is likely in the post-frontal
airmass. Temperatures by morning will be around 10 degrees cooler
than this morning, though it will still be quite humid.

The front is expected to continue SWD into the NW Gulf waters THU
morning, but will subsequently stall out roughly from CRP to PTN
within the deep layer W-E oriented flow. Perturbations in this
westerly flow aloft along with elevated MSTR/instability will keep
a risk of isolated/scattered convection in the forecast, with the
area otherwise shrouded in post-frontal cloud cover amid generally
mild afternoon temperatures.

Upper trof digging into the ERN CONUS THU night into FRI will
both sharpen the front and aid in driving it farther offshore, but
also result in increasing rain chances and the arrival of a much
cooler airmass. A brief reprieve in rain expected on SAT, with
rain chances increasing again SAT night into SUN as a shearing out
shortwave ejects east across the SRN Plains. Good rain chances
continue SUN night into MON as a deep upper trof digs into the
CENT/ERN CONUS. A strong cold front is expected late MON into TUE,
which will finally dry us out and could yield our first light
freeze for northern parts of the area.

13

MARINE...
A light onshore flow will continue this evening ahead of a slow
moving frontal boundary sagging into the area. Patchy fog is
possible over the nearshore Gulf waters and coastal lakes and
bays, with the risk of fog decreasing over the latter after
midnight as the front is forecast to reach near the coast by
that time. The front will then continue slowly south into the
Gulf waters where it is expected to stall out on Thursday. Strong
high pressure building into Southern Plains will finally drive
the front out of the area Thursday night into Friday, with a
strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Elevated offshore
flow will continue through the weekend as a reinforcing high
traverses Eastern U.S., with offshore flow becoming strong again
early next week as a robust surface high drops into the Plains.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  63  49  55 /  70  40  60  70
LCH  64  72  55  58 /  80  30  60  80
LFT  65  74  56  58 /  80  30  50  80
BPT  66  72  56  59 /  70  30  70  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
456 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
082300-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
456 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible as a cold front sags south through the region this
evening. While severe thunderstorms are generally not expected,
an isolated severe thunderstorm producing large hail or damaging
winds is possible. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, which could result in
minor flooding of urban or low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers will move inland off the gulf of Mexico through
much of the day Thursday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

A stronger cold front will approach and move through the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning accompanied by widespread
showers and thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated with this system, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty
winds, and brief heavy downpours.

Dry conditions will prevail Friday afternoon through Saturday
with precipitation chances returning late Saturday into Sunday as
a weak upper disturbance moves across the northern gulf. This will
be followed by another strong cold front swinging through the
area late Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-082300-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
456 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Patchy fog is possible tonight over the nearshore Gulf waters and
coastal lakes and bays.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
through this evening as a cold front sags through the area. No
severe thunderstorms are expected, but storms will have the
potential to produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty
winds, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers will move inland off the gulf of Mexico through
much of the day Thursday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

A stronger cold front will approach and move through the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning accompanied by widespread
showers and thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated with this system, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty
winds, and brief heavy downpours. Strong offshore flow will
develop in the wake of this front with gusts to gale force
possible along with seas of 8 - 10 feet.

Dry conditions will prevail Friday afternoon through Saturday
with precipitation chances returning late Saturday into Sunday as
a weak upper disturbance moves across the northern gulf. This will
be followed by another strong cold front swinging through the
area late Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
455 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

LAZ029-072345-
Avoyelles LA-
455 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL AVOYELLES PARISH
UNTIL 545 PM CST...

At 454 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Big Bend, or 7 miles east of Bordelonville, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3122 9175 3120 9173 3121 9170 3119 9168
      3117 9168 3116 9170 3114 9172 3112 9172
      3111 9170 3110 9170 3109 9172 3107 9171
      3105 9172 3099 9178 3109 9191 3123 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 225DEG 10KT 3111 9179

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
644 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

LAZ033-080130-
St. Landry LA-
644 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ST. LANDRY PARISH
UNTIL 730 PM CST...

At 644 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Opelousas, moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Opelousas, Leonville and Port Barre.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 9215 3059 9213 3066 9178 3043 9176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 264DEG 15KT 3055 9210

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1010 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

LAZ044-045-053-080515-
Iberia LA-Lafayette LA-Upper St. Martin LA-
1010 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTH
CENTRAL IBERIA AND NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 1115 PM
CST...

At 1010 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near St. Martinville to 10 miles southeast of
Butte La Rose. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Catahoula, Breaux Bridge, St. Martinville, Broussard,
Youngsville, Cade, Butte La Rose, Parks and Milton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3006 9204 3008 9207 3012 9209 3026 9200
      3033 9163 3031 9162 3028 9159 3025 9158
      3024 9156 3024 9151 3023 9147 3020 9149
      3019 9147 3014 9147 3013 9146 3011 9147
      3010 9146 3010 9139 3008 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 242DEG 32KT 3015 9189 3022 9153

Landreneau