Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
514 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...Early this morning local radar is depicting
considerable shower and thunderstorms activity advancing over the
inland area from the Gulf. Widespread nocturnal activity being
initiated by low pressure aloft now situated over southeast Texas
in concert with strong low level convergence over the northwest
Gulf. Active convective pattern expected to persist through the
day. Evening LCH sounding came in with an exceptionally high PWAT
at 2.46 inches. Moisture of this extent in place will yield the
potential for flooding rains with stronger storms or in training
type scenarios.

Will be maintaining the previous issued Flash Flood Watch through
00z encompassing southeast Texas and a large portion of southwest
Louisiana. WPC has maintained a slight risk for flooding rains
across this area, and increased the risk to moderate for Cameron
and Calcasieu parishes, as well as Orange and Jefferson counties
of southeast Texas. Rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches will be possible
on top of already saturated grounds. Upper feature does advance
slowly northwest through the day while weakening, but will leave
ample moisture for Tuesday to maintain scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Will then be focusing on the eventual path of Potential Tropical
Cyclone #7 which is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm as
it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico...eventually reaching the
central Gulf Coast Tuesday night. Trending toward the ECMWF at
this time which brings the weakened system through central and
northern Louisiana Wednesday. This suggests a potential for
flooding rains across this area. Ample moisture then remains in
place through the remainder of the week yielding daily scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...Showers and thunderstorms will continue today over the
coastal waters as an upper level low and associated surface wave
moves northwest. Potential Tropical Cyclone #7 is forecast to
strengthen to a tropical storm as it crosses the eastern Gulf of
Mexico...eventually reaching the north-central Gulf Coast early
Wednesday. Please refer to the latest advisories from the National
Hurricane Center for more information on this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  72  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
LCH  82  74  89  73 /  80  50  50  30
LFT  86  74  89  73 /  70  30  50  40
BPT  82  76  87  75 /  90  60  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ030-041-042-052-
     073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
838 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

LAZ030-041-042-052-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-040145-
Beauregard-Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Vermilion-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
838 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into Monday evening for portions of
Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Heavy rain is expected
tonight and training storms may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A Flash Flood Watch in effect into Monday evening.

Thunderstorms are forecast everyday this week, however rain chances
are greatest Monday and during the second half the week when a
tropical disturbance enters Louisiana from the gulf. Flooding
rains will be the main concern late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, however spotters are
encouraged to report flooding.

LAZ027>029-031>033-043>045-053>055-040145-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Acadia-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-
838 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana and west central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rain with a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight. Periods of
heavy rain and isolated lightning strikes will be the main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are forecast everyday this week, however rain chances
are greatest Monday and during the second half the week when a
potential tropical cyclone enters Louisiana from the gulf. Flooding
rains will be the main concern late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-040145-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
838 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds and seas to remain elevated from storms over the coastal
waters tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Storms will continue in the coastal waters into the coming week
with a tropical low expected to move off the Florida coast and
into the gulf. This low is expected to move towards the eastern
Louisiana coast towards Wednesday. As this happens thunderstorms
from this low will produce gusty winds which will raise seas
locally.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.