Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
405 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The weather map looks fairly similar to this time yesterday
morning, with water vapor imagery showing a mid/upper-level low
parked over the far wrn Gulf, while sfc analyses show an inverted
trof lying just off the TX/swrn LA coastline. Local 88Ds are
already pretty lit up this morning with one band of moderate/heavy
rainfall already making its way into coastal sern TX...an area
which received 5-8 inches of rainfall yesterday. Meanwhile, a
large area of mainly lght stratiform rain is covering much of the
remainder of the forecast area at this time.

Primary change to the forecast this morning was the introduction
of a flash flood watch for the rest of today for Jefferson and
Orange Counties as average QPFs are expected to run in the 1-2
inch range over the next 12 hours. Due to yesterday's heavy rains
across that area, flash flood guidance has dropped considerably
and is now running just over an inch in an hour...1.5-1.8 inches
for a six hour period. Of course locally higher amounts will be
possible thanks to a continuation of ridiculous Gulf moisture
overtopping the trof...regional 00z soundings showed PWat values
running 150 percent or more of normal for mid-June. Considering
that heavy rain is already beginning to impact this area, the
likelihood of flooding at some point over the next few hours is
increasing.

Rain chances back off somewhat tonight, then jump back up again
Wednesday, this time over mainly our TX zones, as the area remains
under the influence of a weak trof/shear axis. Elevated POPs then
shift for mainly the nrn zones for Thursday as this feature shifts
ewd.

Rain chances begin to gradually return to more seasonal values
Friday and on into the weekend as weak ridging aloft begins
building back over the region. At this time, we should also see a
return of more summer-like temperatures with maxes forecast in
the lower 90s for all but the coastline each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind grids indicate that SCA conditions should continue
diminishing through the morning, and thus the inherited advisory
will be allowed to expire at 11z. Have introduced caution
headlines for the waters to extend through much of today as
warranted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  86  71 /  60  30  40  30
LCH  85  75  85  76 /  80  40  40  30
LFT  86  75  89  76 /  70  30  30  20
BPT  82  76  83  77 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ215-216.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ455-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through this afternoon for GMZ450-
     452-470-472.

&&

25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
448 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
192200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
448 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with an area of
disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue
to develop and spread inland into tonight. Some locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, especially south of the I-10 corridor
in southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Rainfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour may lead to some minor street flooding in poor
drainage urban areas. Wind gusts with the showers could approach
35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Tropical-like moisture will continue over the region, especially
coastal southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, leading to high
rain chances and the possibility of locally heavy rainfall again
Tuesday. Additional rainfall across lower southwest Louisiana and
southeast Texas will be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher
amounts. The remainder of the forecast area will see rainfall
amounts less than 1 inch. Minor street flooding will be possible
where the heavy rainfall amounts occur. Wind gusts to 30 mph and
occasional cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with
the storms.

Rain chances will gradually decrease toward the middle and latter
part of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-192200-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
448 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The interaction between a tropical wave over the western Gulf of
Mexico and high pressure over the southeast US will keep an
elevated onshore flow and high seas in place. Some wind gusts in
the numerous showers could be greater than gale force. Tides
along the coast will be around 1 foot above the astronomical
predicted levels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Conditions will begin to improve on Tuesday as the tropical wave
moves further into the Texas coast, lessening the pressure
gradient.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.