Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
528 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAFs, seeing IFR ceilings in east Texas and central
Louisiana, and MVFR ceilings in southern sections of southeast
Texas and southwest and south central Louisiana. An area of rain
with embedded thunderstorms will slowly works its way across the
region tonight, so expecting IFR conditions at all sites at some
point tonight, either during the convection or even after with
the low ceilings.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Effective SFC boundary lies generally just S of a KBPT to KLCH to
KOPL line this afternoon per radar/satellite imagery and SFC
observations. Temperatures south of this boundary have risen into
the lower/mid 70s. To the north, pockets of clearing have allowed
some areas to rise into the mid/upper 60s, while over interior E
TX into Central LA, readings remain in the mid 50s owing to
extensive cloud cover and PCPN.

Axis of highest QPF has shifted north a bit the past couple of
hours or so, but this break is temporary as heavier convective
cells/areas of rain are starting to spread E. This should continue
through the evening hours along/ahead of a trof axis progged to
push through the area, and the bulk of the rain is expected to be
east of the area save for parts of South Central LA by midnight.
For the rest of this afternoon through this evening, a broad swath
of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts is possible across
interior E TX into Central LA. Do not expect this to result in
widespread or significant flooding, but localized flooding in low-
lying and/or urban areas is possible. Locally heavy rainfall
verbiage was added to the gridded forecast for the evening. In
terms of severe potential, SPC has kept most of the area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with all modes possible.

Convection will linger along the frontal boundary Monday morning,
which is expected to lie over the Gulf waters. To the north,
northerly winds and drier air is forecast to intrude in the wake
of the trof axis, with morning temperatures expected to fall into
the 50s over most of the area. High pressure at the SFC and weak
ridging aloft will yield a mild afternoon, with temperatures
climbing into the lower 70s despite a fair amount of lingering
cloud cover.

Frontal boundary still progged to lift back north on TUE
downstream of a digging WRN CONUS upper low, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms TUE afternoon. Return southerly flow
will quickly moderate temperatures, particularly overnight lows.
South winds will intensify WED as low pressure deepens over the
Plains ahead of the now upper trof translating through the Four
Corners and into the Rockies. Trailing CDFNT will sweep through
the area WED night into early THU, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Cool and dry high pressure at the SFC and aloft
ends the week and starts the weekend on a quiet note.

13

MARINE...
A cold front stalled just inland will be driven into Gulf tonight
by an upper level trough approaching the ARKLATEX. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into the
coastal waters, with light to modest north winds developing behind
the front. Showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday morning,
mainly over the waters to the south and east of Intracoastal City,
with rains ending by afternoon as the front continues off to the
east. Winds turn east and then southeast on Monday night into
Tuesday as this front lifts back to the north. South winds will
strengthen a bit Wednesday ahead of another cold front forecast to
cross the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday, with a
light to modest offshore flow behind this front closing out the
week.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  70  52  71 / 100  10  10  60
LCH  58  72  59  75 /  70  10  10  40
LFT  60  73  61  76 /  80  10  10  40
BPT  57  71  60  76 /  70  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
424 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
262230-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
424 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the area tonight, progressing generally east to
west. Heaviest rainfall amounts, ranging from 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher totals, are expected to occur across interior East
Texas and Central Louisiana. Widespread or significant flooding is
not expected, but localized flooding in low-lying and/or urban
areas is possible. There is also an areawide marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms, with all severe modes possible.

Rains are expected to have come to an end by Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

A warm front will lift north through the are on Tuesday, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Another cold front is expected to cross the forecast area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-262230-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
424 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A cold front stalled just inland will be driven into Gulf tonight
by an upper level trough approaching the ARKLATEX. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into the
coastal waters, with light to modest north winds developing behind
the front. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No severe thunderstorms are expected at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday morning, mainly
over the waters to the south and east of Intracoastal City, with
rains ending by afternoon as the front continues off to the
east. A brief period of elevated northerly winds may require an
exercise caution headline over the Gulf waters west of
Intracoastal City Monday morning.

A warm front will lift out of the gulf Tuesday sparking scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Another cold front will swing quickly through the area Thursday
accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE MAGNOLIA SPRINGS  30.72N 93.97W
02/25/2018                   JASPER             TX   PUBLIC

            CALLER REPORTED NEARLY 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY
            509 NW OF KIRBYVILLE.

&&

RACKLEY