Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
740 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

H5 analysis from this morning had a tandem of highs
located across the southern third of the CONUS. The first was over
eastern Arizona and a second over southern Alabama. Further north,
low amplitude flow extended from California, east into Ohio valley
and Mid Atlantic. Across the northern tier of the CONUS, low
amplitude ridging was present across the Pacific NW. East of this
feature, a low amplitude trough of low pressure was present across
the northern plains into the northern Great Lakes. Within this
trough, several weak disturbances were noted with shortwaves present
across sern Montana, eastern North Dakota, southern Iowa and central
Wisconsin. At the surface: Low pressure was present across western
Kansas with a stationary front extending to the east northeast into
northwestern Missouri. West of the low the the front extended into
southeastern and central Colorado. Across western and north central
Nebraska, light easterly and northeasterly winds were present and
led to low cloudiness across portions of west central and
southwestern Nebraska earlier today. The bulk of this has burnt off
by mid afternoon. Mid level convective cloudiness has developed with
showers and embedded thunderstorms present across northern Nebraska,
as well as central and south central Nebraska. Readings as of 3 PM
CDT, ranged from 67 in Gordon with rain, to 80 at North Platte and
O'Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Tonight and Tuesday...Thunderstorm and rain chances are
the main forecast challenges in the short term. For tonight: The
shortwave, currently over sern Montana, will approach the Central
plains early this evening. Two areas of thunderstorms are expected
to initiate in advance of this feature, the first over Kansas into
south central and southeastern Nebraska INVOF the stationary front.
The second favored area is over northern Nebraska which is INVOF of
the shortwave trough. This scenario is supported by the latest NAM12
and GFS solutions and to a lesser degree by the latest ECMWF
solution. The WARW seems to be the outlier this morning, forcing a
broad swath of precipitation across the forecast area tonight.
Looking at the other HREF members, they are similar to the
NAM12/GFS camp, favoring precipitation across the northern forecast
area and in the far southeastern forecast area. That being said,
decided to focus the highest pops across north central Nebraska and
sern portions of the forecast area. As for the severe threat, deep
layer shear is strong tonight, generally greater than 50 KTS and
with limited cape in place, it may be hard for updrafts to overcome
the strong shear tonight. For that reason, and the fact that CAPE is
limited, tonight, not overly concerned about severe storms tonight.
With steep mid level lapse rates in place, any strong storms may
produce some hail up to dime or nickle size.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Tuesday night through Thursday...Another round of
convection will develop Tuesday afternoon along the front ranges of
southeastern Wyoming and Colorado. Northwesterly H5 flow aloft will
carry this activity generally southwest of the forecast area. Some
of this has the potential to clip the swrn forecast area Tuesday
evening and have included it in the latest forecast package. On
Wednesday into Wednesday night, high pressure aloft will build north
from the swrn CONUS into the intermountain west. The result will be
north northwesterly steering winds Wednesday night into Thursday.
There will be one last small chance for pcpn Wednesday evening as a
weak disturbance tracks through central Nebraska. This was not
captured by the superblend and after collaboration with GID and GLD,
went ahead and added pops to the fcst.

Thursday night through Monday...High pressure across the
intermountain west, will build east from the intermountain west onto
the central and northern plains by the end of the week. This will
result in warm temperatures and dry conditions in a subsidence rich
environment. This is expected to persist through the weekend with
the next outside chance for pcpn next Monday night as the ridge
breaks down and a broad trough of low pressure traverses the
northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

An intense thunderstorm with large hail west of KOGA, as
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continued from near KTIF
toward KONL. The thunderstorm activity will end overnight with
clearing skies. Scattered high clouds Tuesday along with light amd
variable winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
422 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
422 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018 /322 PM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening. Some storms
in the west and southwest could be stronger with wind gusts
around 50 mph. Any storms could produce brief heavy downpours and
occasional lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday night
across far southwestern into portions of central Nebraska. At
this time, no severe storms are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
839 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             BRULE                   41.10N 101.89W
08/06/2018  M1.00 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN TOWN. PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
841 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             10 SSW OGALLALA         40.99N 101.79W
08/06/2018  E1.75 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JURGENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             N GRANT                 40.85N 101.73W
08/06/2018  M2.50 INCH       PERKINS            NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEASURED 3 INCH HAIL ON NORTH SIDE OF GRANT.

&&

JURGENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
850 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             6 S LEWELLEN            41.24N 102.14W
08/06/2018  E1.75 INCH       GARDEN             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT RELAYED BY COOP OBSERVER OF GOLF BALL HAIL
            AND DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN THE AREA.

&&

JURGENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
856 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             1 E GRANT               40.84N 101.71W
08/06/2018  M3.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
859 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

NEZ006-007-010-070245-
Holt NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
859 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLT...EAST CENTRAL
KEYA PAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN BOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Naper, or 25 miles west of Spencer, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dustin and Hull Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 82 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Do not drive
your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 9885 4266 9899 4283 9934 4298 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 296DEG 16KT 4287 9920

Snively