Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Winds aloft at h500mb remain strong at 50-60kt. This feature could
still produce a few strong or severe storms this afternoon and
evening despite cooler surface temperatures and less moisture. The
potential for a "high-caliber" storm producing significant severe
weather is very uncertain. This potential would appear to be
maximized across sern WY and ern Colo as suggested by SPC.

Radar continues to show an area of weak midlevel radar returns
across western Nebraska and this could be an area of frontogenesis
which could cause lapse rates to steepen. If this is true, then new
storms should form in this area this afternoon and move south or
southeast through swrn Nebraska. The Black Hills could also be a
genesis area for storms as suggested by the HRRR model and there is
a disturbance across the Northern Plains which will drop tonight.

The HRRR, HREF and RAP were the basis for likely rain chances this
afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorm activity should be winding down
by late evening with mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms after
midnight. Isolated, mostly diurnally forced, showers and
thunderstorms are in place Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

After that, rain chances vanish and h700mb temperatures begin to
rise toward 15C by Friday. Winds aloft are still fairly strong
through Thursday (25-35kt at h500mb) but the models show no focus
and precipitable water falls to less than an inch perhaps
signaling the beginning of dry spell.

Moisture could increase sufficiently by Friday night for isolated
thunderstorm chances, mainly across northern Nebraska where h500mb
winds will be 25-35kts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to drop southeast this
evening and forecast to exit the southwest by 10Z. Visual flight
rules will be seen across the area with clouds lowering after 04z
at the KLBF terminal as convection moves across then clouds and
ceiling lifting beyond 09Z. A concern overnight is the potential
for some patchy fog overnight, however for now went with the drier
model solution with clouds lifting by 15Z and visual flight rules
into the afternoon Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Keck

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
305 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018 /205 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are likely this evening with a few severe storms
producing large hail and wind damage. An isolated storm or two
could produce hail 2 inches or larger and wind gusts to 75 mph.
The area of concern for severe weather is generally along and
west of a line from Valentine to Thedford to Hayes Center. The
risk of severe weather increases west of a line from Merriman to
Hyannis to Imperial with the possibility of an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday. Severe weather is not
anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed until 10 pm CDT...9 pm MDT along
and west of a line from Valentine to Thedford to Hayes Center.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

NEZ094-292200-
Western Cherry NE-
310 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 309 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Swett, or 10 miles southwest of Martin, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merriman and Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 123 and 139.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 214 and 231.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4299 10170 4281 10153 4272 10184 4299 10198
      4300 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 334DEG 27KT 4307 10188

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

NEZ006-008-009-292200-
Brown NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROCK...NORTHEASTERN
BROWN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KEYA PAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springview, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Keller Park State Recreation Area, Thomas Creek State Wildlife
Management Area, Meadville, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area and
Pine Glen State Wildlife Refuge.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 200 and 211.

LAT...LON 4269 9991 4280 9987 4277 9945 4257 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 282DEG 17KT 4275 9981

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
737 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

NEZ038-300130-
Custer NE-
737 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Weissert, or 17 miles east of Broken Bow, moving south
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ansley, Mason City, Comstock, Weissert, Westerville, Arcadia
Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area and Wescott.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 near mile marker 85, and between mile markers 87 and
107.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 294 and 304.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 300 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 9936 4152 9947 4158 9924 4153 9921
      4140 9921 4139 9920 4122 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 341DEG 19KT 4145 9931

Keck