Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

At 08z...An MCS continues to move east and southeastward from the
western Sandhills into the central Sandhills and southwest Nebraska.
Some strong winds will remain possible as well as locally heavy
rain. Temperatures ranging mainly n the upper 60s, with patchy fog
reported across southeastern areas including LBF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

The existing MCS is expected to move east and southeastward this
morning and slowly decay. A mid level trough currently from eastern
Mt ans western SD, will  move into central and eastern SD and
northeast Nebr this afternoon and evening. This will trigger new
development across SD, which should develop southeastward across
areas mainly east of Valentine through Callaway. This area is
forecast in a slight and enhanced risk area by SPC. With rather
strong mid and upper level winds of 40 to 60 kts, and southeast
winds near the surface, thunderstorms will be capable of becoming
strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds are both possible
this afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
as LCL heights will remain fairly low. Highs remain near previous
forecast from near 90 southeast Panhandle and far southwest zones,
to near 80 northeast.

For tonight, strong to severe storms possible until mid evening,
mainly east of Valentine through Callaway. Likely POPs across Boyd,
Holt, Garfield and Wheeler. Only a slight chance late evening as
activity exits the area. Dry with clearing skies after midnight.
Expect winds to become light westerly after midnight. Lows from the
low 60s west to mid 60s east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

As the closed upper low currently over the Dakotas moves into the
Great Lakes this weekend, a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest.
A series of shortwaves associated with a strong low over the
Canadian Prairies will then ride along the ridge periphery, bringing
precip chances to western Nebraska. At the surface, the first front
clears the area by early Thursday and a high pressure settles onto
the northern Plains. The next front lines up to cross the area
around Sunday.

Thursday... Bumped up highs slightly to account for mostly sunny
skies, downslope flow, and H85 temps approaching 30C. A general
MAV/MET/ECS blend results in temps ranging from upper 80s north
central to upper 90s far southwest. Dew points may even drop below
50 in the panhandle! (ahhhh) so heat headlines are not anticipated.

Friday... Upslope flow regime takes over and moisture advects into
the region once again, pushing dew points into the 60s and keeping
highs slightly cooler. Fgen increases at H5-7, but mid levels are
moisture-starved, greatly limiting precip potential.

Saturday and beyond... Forcing increases via surface boundaries and
mid level shortwaves. Combined with persistent easterly flow
(keeping moisture content high), mainly looking at nocturnal
convection. Storms move off the higher terrain to the west and are
sustained by either a weak low level jet or elevated CAPE. Highs
stay warm in the 80s/90s Sat and Sun, then fall to near 80F Mon
and Tue behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on and off
overnight through early Wednesday evening, mainly affecting areas
along and east of highway 83 and along highway 20.

MVFR cigs, currently across eastern Nebraska, are expected to
develop westward to near highway 61 overnight with VFR developing
by 17z Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NEZ004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
314 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-190815-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
314 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 /214 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Strong thunderstorms will continue moving southeast across the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska this morning. Gusty winds, heavy
rain and frequent lightning are the primary threats.

Another round of thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening across north central Nebraska. Some storms will likely
become severe, capable of damaging winds and large hail. A tornado
or two also cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday nights.
Severe weather potential is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening,
mainly for areas east of Highway 83 and north of Interstate 80.
Please report severe weather conditions, damage, and rainfall
reports.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1021 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NEZ004-094-180515-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
1021 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM MDT...

At 1020 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Intersection of Red Shirt
and Cuny Table Roads to 6 miles north of Chadron. Movement was east
at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Hay Springs, White Clay, Clinton, Lone Butte,
Irwin, Highway 27 crossing the Niobrara River, Mount Maria.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 117.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 39 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4300 10200 4299 10189 4254 10210 4261 10277
      4278 10277 4279 10279 4300 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 287DEG 36KT 4338 10282 4291 10303

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1118 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NEZ004-094-180600-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
1118 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT...

At 1118 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Gordon, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Hoover Lake, Irwin, Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin
Road, Shell Lake State Wildlife Management Area and Bayonne.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 103 and 134.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4300 10173 4268 10175 4280 10229 4300 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 276DEG 18KT 4291 10211

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1146 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NEZ004-022-180630-
Sheridan NE-Garden NE-
1146 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GARDEN AND WESTERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM MDT...

At 1145 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Chadron to 10 miles northeast of Box
Butte Dam to 8 miles southwest of Hemingford. Movement was southeast
at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Hay Springs, Antioch, Smith Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Mount Maria, Walgren Lake State Recreation Area,
Snow Lake, Miles Lake, Wickson Lake, Diamond Lake, Metcalf State
Wildlife Management Area and Krause Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 95.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 6 and 48.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 96 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska...and until midnight MDT for the Panhandle
of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4296 10279 4296 10246 4233 10223 4187 10267
      4200 10268 4201 10270 4209 10270 4210 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 293DEG 30KT 4283 10309 4253 10290 4222 10318

Snively

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
249 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2018

NEZ022-180930-
Garden NE-
249 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 330
AM MDT...

At 249 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, or 26 miles
northwest of Oshkosh, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Richardson Lake, Mumper,
Rackett, Dogtown Flats, Deer Lake and Adams Flats.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4187 10255 4172 10201 4146 10220 4170 10264
      4174 10264 4174 10266 4175 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 289DEG 29KT 4175 10255

Roberg