Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

A severe MCS is forecast to develop early this evening, and move
quickly east-southeast. SPC continues to suggest an enhanced wind
damage threat this evening into the early morning. Isolated storms
expected to initiate in northern Sheridan County, followed by
scattered storms moving east into the northern panhandle. As
suggested by the latest and recent HRRR model runs, a small
convective cluster should begin to take shape across the nw
Sandhills by 8 pm CDT. While damaging straight line winds the
primary hazard, there is also the potential for some large hail.
The thunderstorm forecast carries likely POPs across much of north
central Nebraska this evening, and into portions of central
Nebraska crossing midnight. The southward extent of chance POPs
extend south to near Ogallala thorugh Stockville, with just a
slight chance south of there.

The severe weather potential is based on ML CAPES +35000 J/KG and
0-6km shear values of 25 kts. A dry layer around 850 mb will
enhance the wind damage threat. The convective system should exit
the eastern zones by 6 am CDT. Depending on the size and
intensity of the system, locally heavy rainfall is also possible.
A half to three quarters of an inch is possible across much of
north central into parts of central Nebraska. Although not an
immediate concern, localized flash flooding is possible mainly
east of O'Neill through Burwell.

On Saturday, the atmosphere should become fairly stable in the
wake of tonights system, as the upper ridge axis extends across
the Plains. Warm 700 mb temps near 15C across the Panhandle and
southwest should act to inhibit any thunderstorms late afternoon
as highs reach or exceed 90 degrees most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

A slight chance for storms Saturday evening across the northwest
Sandhills as height falls begin to work into the region. Backed
southeast winds into the Blackhills region to be favorable for
storm initiation, which may move into the northwest Sandhills.

Sunday will be hot with daytime highs reaching well into the mid
90s with upper 90s across parts of southwest Nebraska.

The upper trough will force the cold front through the forecast area
Sunday night or early Monday morning. With height falls occurring,
and the associated cold front, thunderstorms are possible across
the northwest half of the area overnight, although a few storms
could develop further east.

Cooler and more stable air will reside behind the front for
dry seasonal conditions Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. By Wednesday, an upper ridge begin to build in,
with a warm front lifting north across the plains. Temperatures
warm into the mid and upper 80s Thursday-Friday.

Thunderstorms chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday, as fast
zonal flow interacts with a warm front lifting north. Another
chance arrives Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Forecast challenge involves extent of developing MCS in area and
time of departure. Current thinking is for the storms in SD to
move southeast once an organized large scale cold pool develops
which is ongoing now, following the theta-E axis that is
currently outlined by the cu field in satellite. Good moisture
inflow and evolving LLJ should sustain the storms as they head
further south. Did not bring them as far south as KLBF until after
04Z though that will have to be evaluated as the night
progresses with consideration of additional storms to the west
moving in.

SREF probs not indicating much potential for widespread IFR cigs
in the post-MCS environment toward morning though that is always a
bit of a concern. Have left out for now. Once organized system
moves out there should be mainly convective debris for the morning
but mainly in the form of high level cloudiness.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Stoppkotte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-092100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
347 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018 /247 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage are likely late this
afternoon and this evening across parts of western and north
central Nebraska. The area of concern is generally along and
north of a line from Oshkosh to Broken Bow. A few severe
thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind damage are possible
elsewhere across western and north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible
Saturday and Sunday nights. The area of concern on Saturday night
is across northern Nebraska and across the eastern Panhandle on
Sunday night.

Thunderstorm chances continue on Tuesday through Wednesday. At
this time, severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1118 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

NEZ008>010-026-027-090500-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
1118 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROCK...NORTHWESTERN LOUP...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...SOUTHWESTERN HOLT AND NORTHEASTERN BLAINE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1117 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Newport to 13 miles south of Ainsworth.
Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Long Pine, Amelia, Rose, Hofeld Lake, Fox Bayou, Raven, Duff, Pony
Lake, Sybrant, Jones Lake, Twin Lakes State Wildlife Management Area
and Johnsons Corner.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 147 and 180.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 250 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4225 9889 4200 9970 4243 10001 4259 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 296DEG 40KT 4258 9935 4236 9994

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1129 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

NEZ007-009-010-029-090515-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-Boyd NE-
1129 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCK...HOLT...
EASTERN BOYD AND NORTH CENTRAL WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gross to 13 miles north of O'Neill to 12
miles southwest of Atkinson. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
O'neill, O'Neill, Atkinson, Ewing, Chambers, Lynch, Page, Gross,
Amelia, Inman, Bristow, Emmet, Monowi, Scottville, Redbird State
Wildlife Management Area, Opportunity, Goose Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Midway and Dorsey.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 290 and 328.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 157 and 208.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 119 and 135.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4293 9844 4293 9841 4288 9831 4221 9830
      4205 9860 4237 9929 4268 9870 4300 9858
      4300 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 295DEG 34KT 4294 9852 4265 9862 4239 9913

JWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1138 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

NEZ008-025>027-037-038-090515-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Custer NE-Blaine NE-Thomas NE-Logan NE-
1138 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUP...SOUTH CENTRAL
BROWN...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN CUSTER...BLAINE AND THOMAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1137 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Thedford to 11 miles northeast of Brewster.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Thedford, Brewster, Dunning, Halsey, Purdum, Highway 83 crossing The
Dismal River, Linscott, Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management
Area, Norway, Almeria, Natwick and Hawley Flats.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 200 and 247.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 126 and 153.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4167 10057 4179 9950 4213 9977 4201 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 303DEG 28KT 4198 10060 4208 9976

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

NEZ009-010-027>029-090530-
Wheeler NE-Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-
1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROCK...LOUP...NORTHERN
GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN HOLT AND NORTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1155 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Brewster to near Amelia. Movement was east
at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Rose, Amelia, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Fox
Bayou, Virginia Smith Dam, Hannamon Bayou Campground, Carson Lake,
Sunfish Lake, Homestead Knolls Campground, Horseshoe Bend Lake,
Almeria, Nunda Shoal Campground, Deverre and Valley View Flat
Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 123 and 154.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 153 and 156.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4174 9942 4174 9949 4203 9968 4209 9966
      4214 9966 4230 9908 4204 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 276DEG 34KT 4197 9982 4230 9893

Snively