Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Latest IR and visible satellite imagery shows scattered to broken
clouds from northeast CO into southwest NEB with stratocu over the
eastern Panhandle. Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
trough dominating the western CONUS with a closed low over UT and
a shortwave trough moving northeastward away from the Four
Corners across southern CO. Regional radar display shows ongoing
thunderstorms across south central NEB into north central KS. A
boundary is apparent from radar and visible satellite that extends
from near the KGLD radar to northeast CO north to the NEB
Panhandle.

Advancing shortwave trough on the periphery of the broad upper low
will track into western NE tonight spreading large scale forcing
for ascent and will help support convection that is anticipated
across portions of the area this evening-overnight. Of which,
development on/vicinity of the aforementioned boundary is expected
late afternoon-evening with storms expected to move north
northeastward. Additional focus will be regarding an evolving sfc
trough tonight. Convective evolution is expected to be initially
discrete to clusters/MCS this evening. Environment is favorable
with ample instability and deep layer vertical shear 30-40 kts and
generally favorable kinematic profile. Hail and damaging winds
are hazards, along with potential for a couple tornadoes. The
latter threat more so tied to the onset of storms/the beginning of
the convective event with the risk near the boundary. Risks
expected to shift from hail more to wind overnight. Otherwise,
risk of flash flooding is present thus the flash flood watch that
was issued for portions of southwest NEB and the southeast
Panhandle. This is owing to possible regenerating storms/repeated
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall, saturated soils and grounds,
low FFG (1- and 3-hr guidance showing 1 to 1.5 inches) that's
obtainable. The upper- level trough and closed low lifts
northeastward into the northern High Plains tonight/tomorrow.
Tomorrow, risk remains for isolated strong to severe storms ahead
and along the cold front. However, additional uncertainty/lower
confidence with respect to Tuesday's activity depending on what
occurs earlier.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Upper-level ridge builds across the Central High Plains Wednesday
with the open wave upper-level trough tracking into the Upper
Midwest. This ridge continues to build through Thursday over the
Plains and will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions
with the next upper-level trough moving onshore. This upper-level
trough tracks to the Central Great Basin/Central Rockies by
Friday and will promote increased thunderstorm chances Friday-
Friday night. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
at this time. Generally dry conditions are then expected this
weekend with ridging building back in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

The area of thunderstorms across Colorado moves through wrn and
ncntl Neb tonight. The models suggest another round of morning
showers and thunderstorms along highway 83 which moves east
through ncntl Nebraska during the morning. All clear is expected
18z-21z, then another round of thunderstorms develops across wrn
Nebraska affecting areas west of highway 83 through 00z Tuesday
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NEZ022-056>059-
069>071.

&&

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-292015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
309 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 /209 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A flash flood watch is in effect for portions of the eastern
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska tonight. Please see the flood
watch message for full details.

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible across all of
western and north central Nebraska this evening and tonight. The
primary threats are large hail and damaging wind. However, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out during the early evening hours,
mainly across southwestern Nebraska. Periods of heavy rain may
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday. Although the severe threat
is marginal, some isolated storms capable of hail and strong
winds are possible.

After a brief break on Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorm
chances return Friday. Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding
severe potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening, primarily across
southwest Nebraska.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS/ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
434 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E HAMLET             40.36N 101.04W
05/27/2018                   HAYES              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8-10 REA/UTILITY POLES BLOWN DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
435 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE HAYES CENTER       40.46N 100.95W
05/27/2018                   HAYES              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PIVOTS DAMAGE/TWISTED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

NEZ058-069-290100-
Chase NE-Perkins NE-
616 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PERKINS AND NORTHWESTERN
CHASE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

At 616 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lamar, or 13 miles southeast of Holyoke, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grant, Lamar, Chase and Wild Horse Spring.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 53 and 72.

LAT...LON 4040 10206 4067 10205 4095 10179 4077 10152
      4038 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 220DEG 30KT 4051 10206

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

NEZ058-069-290145-
Chase NE-Perkins NE-
655 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PERKINS AND
NORTHWESTERN CHASE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 655 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Lamar, or 14 miles southwest of Grant, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Perkins and northwestern Chase Counties.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 49 and 64.

LAT...LON 4056 10190 4065 10198 4088 10166 4068 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 230DEG 19KT 4066 10185

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
709 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

NEZ058-069-290200-
Chase NE-Perkins NE-
709 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PERKINS AND WESTERN
CHASE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 708 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Amherst to 14 miles south of Lamar.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Crete and Chase.

LAT...LON 4035 10205 4070 10205 4070 10189 4035 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 248DEG 19KT 4065 10220 4037 10205

CDC