Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Isolated thunderstorms have initiated north of Casper and Douglas
Wyoming this afternoon and are forecast to develop into a
thunderstorm cluster across the nrn and cntrl panhandle early this
evening and continue moving southeast through southwest Nebraska
late this evening. A belt of strong 500mb winds near 50 kts will
accompany this system and help to sustain the system tonight. The
presence of strong shear aloft and steep mid level lapse rates
upstream of the area will aid in the potential for supercell
thunderstorms in the panhandle and western sandhills early this
evening, upon which and enhanced risk for severe storms currently
exists. Further east, the system is likely to become elevated as
it congeals southeastward with a damaging wind and large hail
threat still expected, for west central and southwest Nebraska.
With a forward propagating system expected, heavy rainfall is a
threat with areas of 1 to 2 inches possible. Do not expect flash
flooding, although localized flooding could occur due to recent
rainfall. Mesoscale models have been consistent today for high
confidence of occurrence. The system should exit all but far
southeast zones by midnight. Chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms exit overnight, although models do indicate weak
subsidence behind the system to lessen redevelopment.

For Sunday, rain and thunderstorm chances continue as a series of
shortwaves move across Nebraska. Models suggest likely pops west
of a Cody through Broken Bow line by afternoon. Heavy rain is not
anticipated to be a major threat on Sunday. A few strong to
locally severe storms are possible, west of Cody through Callaway.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday night as an
upper trough axis rotates south from nrn South Dakota to northern
Nebraska overnight. Ahead of this feature, a belt of 500mb winds
from 35 to 45 kts will drop southward out of the area overnight.
this will result in lessening chances overnight. Highest pops
during the evening across western and central areas from 40 to 50
percent. It appears the threat for any strong storms Sunday
evening should have shifted southwest of the area.

A strong upper level ridge will build across the western US on
Monday, as an upper trough develops southward from the western
Great Lakes. Still at least a sight chance for showers or a few
thunderstorms due to the influence from the upper trough to our
east. As the upper ridge builds eastward next week, dry weather,
and warming temperatures can be expected. Highs Monday, to range
in the upper 70s, warming to the upper 80s to lower 90s by Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Timing and extent of thunderstorms will again be the forecast
challenge for the next 24 hrs.

Expecting a couple areas of development, one being the north
central and the other being the southwest. In either case, severe
storms are possible but have stayed with MVFR cigs/vis through the
evening and overnight. Some possibility that stratus will drop to
IFR by morning but confidence is not high due to uncertainty of
coverage and duration of TSRA tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Stoppkotte

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-292015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018 /222 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this evening. The area
of concern is generally along and west of a line from Merriman to
Brownlee to Sargent. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazard. A few storms may produce damaging winds as high as 75 mph
and very large hail, 2 inches in diameter or larger. Very heavy
rainfall is also possible and an isolated tornado may form.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms, a few strong or possibly severe, are likely Sunday
afternoon and Sunday evening. The area of concern for severe
weather is generally along and west of line from Cody to Thedford
to Arnold and the hazards are large hail and wind damage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 6 pm and 11 pm along and
west of a line from Merriman to Brownlee to Sargent.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
752 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

NEZ023-024-035-036-290130-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-
752 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ARTHUR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN HOOKER AND NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT/730 PM MDT/...

At 752 PM CDT/652 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles southeast of Hyannis, or 18 miles north of
Arthur, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Green Lake, Sand Beach Lake, Lena, Sand Puddin Lake, Three Mile Lake,
Flatts, Big Lamunyon Flats, Pratt Lake, Spring Valley Lake, Bucktail,
Cogill Lake and Calora.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 140 and 144.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 171 and 184.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT/100 AM
MDT/ for west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4183 10178 4194 10159 4161 10117 4151 10149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 321DEG 30KT 4183 10163

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
834 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             OSHKOSH                 41.41N 102.34W
07/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       GARDEN             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             9 S OSHKOSH             41.28N 102.34W
07/28/2018  E2.00 INCH       GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

            BROKEN WINDOWS AND HEAVY DAMAGE TO SIDING

&&

THORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
850 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             8 S OSHKOSH             41.29N 102.34W
07/28/2018  E1.75 INCH       GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
851 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 S OSHKOSH             41.29N 102.34W
07/28/2018  E60 MPH          GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
857 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W BIG SPRINGS        41.06N 102.27W
07/28/2018  E75 MPH          DEUEL              NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE