Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS North Platte, NE

876 
WWUS53 KLBF 162326
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEC031-161-162345-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-180716T2345Z/
Cherry NE-Sheridan NE-
526 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY AND NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES...

At 525 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gordon, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 515 pm, a wind gust to 76 mph was 
         reported at the airport in Gordon.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Rock Hill, Bayonne
and Intersection of Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 104 and 120.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4281 10226 4292 10211 4276 10183 4259 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 333DEG 19KT 4276 10211 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure anchored
over the southern tip of Nevada with a secondary high noted over the
sern CONUS. Active flow continued across the northern tier of states
and southern Canada this morning. A closed low was noted over
western Ontario with a nice 50KT jet streak extending from northern
Minnesota into northern Quebec. Upstream of this feature and
associated trough of low pressure, a tandem of shortwaves were
noted. The first over swrn Idaho and a second off the southern
Oregon coast. At the surface, weak high pressure was present over
northeastern Nebraska this afternoon. A weak stationary front
extended across the panhandle with southerly winds west of this
feature and calm or light easterly winds east of this feature. Skies
were partly cloudy and temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from
82 at Ainsworth to 89 at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tonight and Tuesday...Precipitation chances and the
severe threat are the main forecast challenges over the next 24
hours. The shortwave disturbance, currently over southern Idaho will
track into Wyoming late this afternoon, emerging onto the Wyoming
plains early this evening. Convection is expected to initiate in
advance of this feature and track east, then southeast into the low
level jet overnight. The latest NAM12 and GFS, as well as the WARW
develop a robust MCS over the northern panhandle, tracking this
south into swrn Nebraska overnight. Model timing has been in decent
agreement between the GFS and NAM12 solutions which favor a "late
show". However, the WARW and HREF ensembles develop convection
across the Black Hills, forcing this into the nwrn CWA late this
afternoon into the early evening hours. If convection were to fire
early on, it would be more discrete in nature with large hail and
winds being the main threats. This is supported by very steep mid
level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 35 to 40 KTS. Later in the
evening as convection morphs into a MCS, winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats. The concern with heavy rain lies with fcst
PWATS which are north of 1.5 inches in advance of the expected
convection. On Tuesday, precipitation will linger in the southern
and eastern forecast area during the morning hours, with drying
conds developing in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tuesday night through Thursday...A second, stronger
disturbance, will track across southern Montana and northern Wyoming
Tuesday afternoon. This feature will approach eastern Wyoming and
the Nebraska panhandle early Tuesday evening. As the disturbance
approaches a surface trough of low pressure, located in eastern
Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday evening, showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Once again, storms will track east and
southeast into the nose of the low level jet. Rich low level
moisture, with PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches will be present across
western and north central Nebraska Tuesday night. This will
facilitate the threat for heavy rain. Since timing will be mainly
during the late evening and overnight hours, not real confident
about the threat for widespread severe storms Tuesday night.
Precipitation will linger in the eastern forecast area Wednesday
morning before pushing out by midday. The upper level shortwave
trough, will slowly track across the Dakotas on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in advance of this feature,
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Good subsidence will develop
behind the exiting H5 wave with dry conditions expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...The upper level disturbance will
drift east and deepen as it approaches the southern Great Lakes
late in the week. This will allow ridging across the western CONUS
to amplify Friday through Saturday night. Warmer temperatures and
dry conditions are expected with highs reaching the upper
80s/lower 90s for Friday and Saturday. An upper level trough will
ride across southwestern into south central Canada Saturday night
into Monday. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday. Will keep pops fairly
low ATTM as the main forcing will be focused over the Dakotas. The
upper level trough will force a cold front through the forecast
area Sunday night with highs falling off to the lower to middle
80s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Low stratus over western Nebraska, mainly from KAIA to KOGA, will
continue to lift and dissipate this afternoon. VFR conditions and
generally light southeast surface winds are expected through the
evening. Thunderstorms will move into northwest Neb late this
evening and spread southeast overnight, resulting in erratic gusty
winds and brief drops in visby/cigs.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 /213 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into northwest Nebraska
late this evening, generally after 9 PM MDT. Some storms will be
capable of producing large hail, strong winds, and very heavy
rain. The storms will spread southeast across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska overnight, where the primary threats are
damaging wind and heavy rain. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will accompany any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. A severe
storm capable of producing hail and strong winds cannot be ruled
out, however the primary threats are prolonged heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday nights.
Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding severe weather potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening and tonight,
primarily for areas west of Highway 83. Any severe weather or
rainfall report is appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
433 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEZ004-094-162315-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
433 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 433 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Gordon, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Hoover Lake and Shell Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 104 and 110.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 10196 4273 10217 4291 10240 4300 10230
      4300 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 305DEG 5KT 4294 10225

CDC