Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1245 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A review of geostationary satellite and Doppler radar data across
the region reveals an intensifying hurricane (Michael) moving
northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just west-northwest
of the Florida Keys by some 245 nautical miles. Recent surface and
satellite scatterometer data indicate sustained SSE winds of 25-30
knots across most of our western marine zones, with occasional
gusts to tropical storm force. Key West Doppler radar base
reflectivity data indicate large swaths of steady rain with
embedded fast-moving showers, squalls, and isolated thunderstorms
mainly west of the Marquesas Keys. The western edge of the
precipitation area has shifted farther west during the day. Most
Keys island communities have been mostly cloudy, but rain-free for
most of the day. A sharp gradient in wind speed exists from east
to west. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island
communities are in the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the
upper 70s. Heat indices during this second week in October are in
the upper 90s.

We have discontinued the Small Craft Advisory for the eastern
marine zones adjacent to the upper Keys based on observational
trends. A Coastal Flood Statement will be re-issued shortly. We
lowered rain chances across the eastern two thirds of the service
area based on radar trends and a morning analysis which revealed
compensatory mesoscale subsidence on the eastern fringes of the
northward-moving, intensifying hurricane. This mesoscale
subsidence likely will e short-lived, and we do expect increasing
convective coverage and vigor later this afternoon and tonight.
&&

.MARINE...
At 1100 am EDT, category two Hurricane Michael was
centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, about 245 nautical
miles west-northwest of the Port of Key West, moving northward
near 10 knots. Hurricane Michael is forecast to move northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, likely making
landfall along the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible this afternoon in the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico and lower Straits of Florida. Thereafter, the
remnants of Hurricane Michael will migrate northeastward, with an
Atlantic high pressure ridge settling near the Florida Keys on
Thursday and Friday. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail
Thursday through Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon.
Rounds of showers are expected to race northward late this afternoon
and evening, affecting the island terminals with brief periods of
brief strong gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions. Outside of
convection, winds will be southeasterly at 12 to 17 knots gusting to
20 to 25 knots. Expect winds to tend stronger at EYW and weaker at
MTH.
&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1990, the daily record rainfall of 3.14" was
recorded at Key West International Airport. Also at Pennekamp State
Park in 2011, a rainfall of 11.02" was recorded. Precipitation
records at Key West date back to 1871.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory in effect for
     GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...Kasper
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......BT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
617 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-101030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
617 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Hurricane Michael... located near 24.1N and 85.9W or about 420
miles south of Panama City. Michael continues to move north
northwest around 12 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is
973mb with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Outer rainbands are
sweeping across the southeast gulf waters including the Dry
Tortugas. There is a slow northeastward spread noted with this
band. Still looking at widespread showers on tap today into
tonight with isolated thunderstorms.

By this evening Michael is expected to be in the east central
gulf moving towards the Florida Panhandle. Michael is still
expected to strengthen before making landfall on Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys coastal waters
for strong southerly winds. Winds and seas will be higher in and
near isolated storms and squall rainbands. Seas outside of showers
and squalls will be 12 to 16 feet are the western most Florida
Strait zones.

Minor coastal flooding, observations from tidal gauges across the
Florida Keys indicate water levels continue about a half foot
above the predicted tides this morning. Water levels are expected
to increase to about three quarters to one full foot above the
predicted tides today around the times of high tide. Island
communities across the Lower and Middle Keys can expect impacts on
the Gulf and Atlantic sides. Coastal flooding will remain
confined to the Atlantic side for communities in the Upper Keys.

Isolated thunderstorms across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal
waters. The primary thunderstorm hazard will be lightning strikes
with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Micheal is expected to continue to strengthen prior to lanfall in
the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall though this event will range from
two to four inches. By late Wednesday... winds and seas will let
down as Michael moves onshore in the Florida Panhandle. More
seasonal weather begins to settle in late in the week and into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

K. Kuyper

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