Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
447 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 446 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing late this
afternoon, mostly over the far northern portion of the forecast
area. Areas further south were affected by a mini MCS during the
day, which delayed diurnal destabilization. By late afternoon a cu
field was developing over the Cumberland basin, where the MCS
cleared out first. Will not rule out precip in the MCS affected
area, but the greatest chance through tonight is where the
scattered activity is ongoing in the north.

In the bigger picture, an upper level ridge over the southeast
CONUS is weakening as a broad trough descends east southeast over
the Midwest and New England. The trough was supporting a cold
front which extended from the Great Lakes southwest to KS late
this afternoon. As the trough continue to deepen/develop, the
front will slowly push southeast, reach near the Ohio River by
early Wednesday morning. Low level flow ahead of the front will
provide transport of warm and humid air northeastward. Increasing
flow aloft will be more favorable conditions for thunderstorms.
Another increase in activity should occur on Tuesday as diurnal
destabilization takes place, with the greatest POP in our northern
counties which will be closest to the front.

An overall decrease in activity should occur again on Tuesday
night with the loss of surface based instability. However, have
included another slight increase in the POP from the north toward
dawn, as the cold front starts to get close.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 446 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

There is good model agreement on the general evolution of the upper
air pattern from mid week into the weekend, with upper ridging
building in the northern Rockies and then shifting into the northern
plains this weekend. Downstream, troughing becomes more pronounced
over the eastern United States, but there are differences in the
development of a closed mid level low over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley this weekend into early next week. The GFS has been pointing
towards the closed low in previous runs and continues to do so with
the 12Z run today. The 12Z ECMWF has come around to developing a
closed low as well, so confidence in this scenario is increasing.
However, the location of the development of the closed low varies.
For example at 12Z Monday the ECMWF shows a closed low centered over
northern MI, while the 12z operational GFS has it over northern IN.
The GFS ensemble mean shows it even further south, near the OH-IN-KY
tri-state area.

With the deepening of an eastern U.S. trough, and eventual
development of a cut off low, we will see a fairly active pattern
with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. On Wednesday, a cold
front will push through the area with a good chance of
thunderstorms. The front will stall out to our south, and there will
not be a significant change in air mass. In fact surface dewpoints
will remain in the 65 to 70 degree right through the weekend, and
precipitable water looks to remain between 1.5 and 2 inches. As such
heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms that develop on any
given day. WPC already has placed eastern KY in a marginal risk area
for heavy rain for day 3 (Wednesday into Wednesday night.) The
overall wet pattern will result in suppression of daytime maximum
temperatures on most days, but humidity levels will remain high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

Showers/thunderstorms were scattered about at the start of the
period, except for a noticeable void over the middle of the
forecast area. This void was caused by subdued heating as a
cluster of thunderstorms and its cloud shield moved over portions
of the area during the morning and early afternoon. As the
overcast breaks up and heating occurs, will expect scattered
showers/thunderstorms to continue to fill in. Activity will then
diminish with loss of heating this evening. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop on Tuesday
morning. Showers/thunderstorms will bring localized sub-VFR
conditions.

Valley fog should develop again tonight and last into Tuesday
morning, with localized VLIFR conditions. Extensive rain which
affected the KSME and KLOZ areas today may aid development of fog
there tonight, and have allowed tempo IFR conditions in their
TAFs around dawn.

Outside of the mentioned precip and fog, VFR conditions are
forecast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
417 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-071100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
417 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...through tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times, mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Some of them could produce
locally heavy rainfall, especially on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

HAL/SBH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
551 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

KYZ051-052-060-106-062230-
Rowan-Menifee-Morgan-Bath-
551 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BATH...NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN...CENTRAL MENIFEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES...

At 550 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hope, or 7
miles northwest of Frenchburg, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Liberty, Frenchburg, Henry, Wellington, Zag, Greear, Blairs
Mills, Mize, Rothwell, Yale, Denniston, Pekin, Liberty Road, Omer,
Bangor, Dehart, Panama, Ratlitt, Zilpo and Scranton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3808 8327 3806 8327 3805 8325 3805 8323
      3784 8328 3793 8369 3804 8371 3807 8356
      3810 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 273DEG 25KT 3801 8374

SHALLENBERGER

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