Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
216 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 216 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

The regional WSR-88D sites are showing convection continue to
increase in coverage this afternoon. Updated the grids to better
reflect the coverage and increasing coverage through the evening.
The HREF seemed have a decent idea on the placement and therefore
loaded toward that direction but lowered the coverage. Otherwise
only minor changes needed for the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1025 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

The morning surface analysis shows a cold front moving into the
Ohio River area, with a fairly anomalous surface high pressure for
this time of year pushing into the Upper Midwest. The frontal
boundary will be the focus for convection through the day, with
the overall better coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected
along and south of I-64 this afternoon and evening. Overall the
grids are in reasonable shape with only minor adjustments needed
for the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

The forecast is on track, and the only adjustments were to blend
obs into the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

Early this morning a poorly defined cold front was located north
of the Ohio River. It was supported by an upper level trough
dropping southeast across the Great Lakes and New England,
suppressing upper level ridging westward to the Rockies and
plains. The front will drop south through our area today and this
evening. Modest upper level support coupled with daytime
destabilization should result in showers and thunderstorms
developing as the front moves south. Clouds and precip will be
more prevalent than in recent days, resulting in weaker
destabilization and less intense storms.

Surface high pressure following closely behind the upper trough
axis will bring us a reprieve from the high dew points we've seen
in recent days, and allow any precip to taper off from north to
south this afternoon and evening. The best drying will be in our
northeast counties, with the push of drier air running out of
momentum as it tries to push further southwest. That being the
case, moisture and instability could be great enough for a few
showers or thunderstorms to pop up over our southwest counties
with heating on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

The extended period will feature slightly above normal
temperatures and periods of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms each day. Daily highs should run generally above
normal, with max values in the upper 80s expected. Nightly lows
should also be above normal, with daily minimums forecast to
bottom out in the mid to upper 60s across the area. The model data
was not in good agreement regarding the overall timing and areal
coverage of precipitation in the extended, so only low
precipitation probabilities were used across the board.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

We have a mix of VFR to MVFR conditions in terms of CIGs this
afternoon and this will be the case through the first part of the
TAF period. We have seen showers and thunderstorms develop this
afternoon along and ahead of a cold front, and these will
continue to increase in coverage through this evening. The biggest
threat will be heavy rain and gusty winds with the stronger
storms. These will wane through the evening as the front pushes
south toward the Tennessee Valley. This front will usher in drier
air and improvements in the TAF sites from the earlier convection,
but fog will be possible in the valley locations once again.
Overall we will see light winds through the period that will veer
to the north as the front slides south into this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
203 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-072115-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
203 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today and early this evening, and could
produce isolated heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Saturday through Wednesday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

HAL/DJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SEILTZ                  37.70N 83.20W
07/04/2018                   MAGOFFIN           KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 378 IN AND AROUND SEILTZ
            IN MAGOFFIN COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

KYZ111-112-114-061830-
Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OWSLEY...WEST
CENTRAL BREATHITT AND SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES...

At 146 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Booneville,
moving east-southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Beattyville, Booneville, Turin, White Ash, Southfork,
Oakdale, Cowcreek, Grass, Chestnut Gap, Ricetown, Copebranch,
Scoville, Athol, Ida May, Lerose, Stay, Tallega, Chenowee and
Proctor.

LAT...LON 3752 8382 3758 8371 3755 8339 3737 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 288DEG 13KT 3753 8366

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
203 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

KYZ108-112-061900-
Breathitt-Wolfe-
203 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT AND
SOUTHEASTERN WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 202 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gilmore, or 9
miles east of Campton, moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Simpson, Lower Gilmore, Rosefork, Keck, Burkhart, Lexie, Daysboro,
Pence, Hollonville, Gilmore, Rock Lick, Vancleve, Lee City, Moct,
Hazel Green, Wilhurst, Shockey, Landsaw, Belknap and Helechawa.

LAT...LON 3778 8333 3776 8333 3774 8329 3772 8328
      3771 8325 3769 8325 3768 8326 3767 8323
      3760 8320 3760 8350 3780 8343 3780 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 356DEG 9KT 3774 8337

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

KYZ112-113-115-061915-
Breathitt-Perry-Knott-
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PERRY...WEST
CENTRAL KNOTT AND SOUTH CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTIES...

At 208 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Noble, or 11
miles east of Jackson, moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hindman, Ritchie, Buck, Noble, Dice, Ary, Emmalena, Bearville, Tina,
Rowdy, Carrie, Talcum, Fisty and Dwarf.

LAT...LON 3750 8323 3751 8312 3731 8298 3730 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 341DEG 12KT 3750 8318

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

KYZ112-115-061915-
Breathitt-Perry-
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND
SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT COUNTIES...

At 220 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Clayhole to Sebastian's Branch. Movement
was south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhorn, Altro, Bush Branch, Hardshell, Lamont, Copland, Dice,
Crockettsville, Krypton, Ned, Saldee, Barwick, Wolf Coal, Talbert,
Beech, Gays Creek, Little, Dalesburg, Whick and Chavies.

LAT...LON 3729 8354 3746 8349 3746 8325 3730 8318
      3730 8337 3732 8340 3730 8343 3729 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 356DEG 9KT 3745 8330 3745 8347

RAY