Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Jackson, KY

080 
WWUS53 KJKL 112226
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
626 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYC069-112235-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180811T2245Z/
Fleming KY-
626 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FLEMING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved south 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3828 8381 3828 8380 3829 8379 3829 8378
      3828 8378 3829 8376 3819 8376 3821 8395
      3830 8385 3830 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 303DEG 3KT 3824 8389 

$$

KYC011-112245-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180811T2245Z/
Bath KY-
626 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BATH COUNTY...

At 625 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bethel, or 10
miles northwest of Owingsville, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Bethel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 8381 3828 8380 3829 8379 3829 8378
      3828 8378 3829 8376 3819 8376 3821 8395
      3830 8385 3830 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 303DEG 3KT 3824 8389 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAL

331 
WWUS53 KJKL 112237
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
637 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYC011-112246-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180811T2245Z/
Bath KY-
637 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BATH COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3828 8381 3828 8380 3829 8379 3829 8378
      3828 8378 3829 8376 3819 8376 3821 8395
      3830 8385 3830 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 257DEG 6KT 3824 8387 

$$

HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
603 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

The latest scans of the WSR-88D radar indicated several areas of
thunderstorms are tracking from multiple directions into eastern
Kentucky late this afternoon. The first complex of storms is
weakening as the outflow travels well ahead of what is left of
this area of storms. Although, the outflow that is traveling
southwest could lead to wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and is well
defined on both radar and satellite data. Another area of storms
is now moving into portions of Fleming and Bath Counties at this
time, with the most robust storms now in parts of Bourbon and
Scott Counties. This area will have to be watched given the more
robust nature of some of the updrafts and some indication of
stronger winds with any line segments. Then yet another region of
storms moving into the Lake Cumberland region, with some of these
storms becoming strong at times. Updated the forecast grids to
try to handle the overall trends mentioned above. The data suggest
this activity will weaken through the evening and this seems
reasonable at this time. However, will continue to monitor the
mesoscale trends through evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 343 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

A 500mb Vort max with a surface cold front dropping southward
across southern Ohio has led to widespread shower and storms along
the Ohio river this afternoon. This activity continues to edge
southward with outflow being generated from previous convection.
This trend should continue with new updrafts being generated along
the leading edge of this outflow as it drops southward. With
plenty of instability in place, thunderstorms would be a good bet
along with a few instances of heavy rain. With the slow movement
of the boundary and eventual loss of daytime heating, we should
see this activity slowly die out later this evening as it tries to
move farther south. Will limit the southward extend of the pops
to just north of Jackson as this seems to be in line with hi-res
models. Contrary to previous model runs, models are trending
towards a drier night across the area as the better precipitation
chances shift east of the area. This may lead to another night of
dense fog/stratus. Thus, have increased the fog in the forecast
and added a mention into the HWO.

Slow moving trough/cold front will linger over the area tomorrow,
with shower and storm development expected along and ahead of the
boundary as it continues to slowly shift southeastward. Should see
a better threat of thunderstorms tomorrow with plenty of
instability in place. Locally heavy rain will be possible again,
but storms should be progressive enough to keep the flooding
threat at bay. Drier air will advect into the area behind the
boundary Sunday evening and night, with the threat of dense fog
shifting into the river valleys for Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

The extended will begin as an upper level cutoff low moves northeast
out of the Ohio Valley. Weak upper level ridging will then take hold
Tuesday before a more dynamic pattern consisting of an upper level
trough with progressive shortwaves sets up for mid to late week.
Looking closer to the surface, a slow moving front will progress to
the south of the Commonwealth Monday and surface high pressure will
set up Tuesday. This will bring drier conditions for eastern
Kentucky on Tuesday. The surface high pressure will shift to be
southeast of Kentucky Wednesday, bringing increased chances of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms due to southerly flow. A
cold front will then advance towards the Commonwealth later on
Thursday before progressing through Friday and into Saturday. This
system will bring the best chances for showers and thunderstorms for
the long term. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s,
but some areas may see temps in the upper 80s Wednesday. This will
be short lived as temps cool down to be in the low to mid 80s
towards the end of the week due to frontal passage. Low temperatures
will mainly be in the 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

Generally VFR conditions will be seen through the afternoon. A few
showers or storms could threaten SYM late in the day, but
confidence is low on timing at this point so will not include them
in the TAF. Otherwise, another night of stratus and fog is
anticipated tonight with visibilities and ceilings again falling
below airport minimums. Much like this morning, a slow improvement
to MVFR will be seen through Sunday morning, before returning to
VFR by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
329 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122230-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
329 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible into early this evening, mainly
along and north of I-64.

Areas of dense fog will develop late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Areas of dense fog will persist through dawn on Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible in southeast Kentucky on Sunday
afternoon and in far eastern Kentucky on Monday afternoon.

Thunderstorms will be possible again from Wednesday through
Friday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KAS/CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYZ104-112030-
Elliott-
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ELLIOTT COUNTY...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bruin, or near
Grayson Lake State Park, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sandy Hook, Culver, Isonville, Newfoundland and Bruin.

LAT...LON 3818 8305 3820 8304 3820 8302 3821 8301
      3817 8298 3817 8292 3811 8289 3809 8293
      3805 8295 3805 8298 3806 8312 3820 8312
      3821 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 266DEG 12KT 3814 8304

HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
534 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYZ068-112230-
Rockcastle-
534 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROCKCASTLE COUNTY...

At 533 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gum Sulphur, or
8 miles northwest of Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Donaro, Bummer, Robinet, Hiatt, Gum Sulphur, Pongo,
Horse Lick, Roundstone, Spiro, Wabp, Lake Linville, Hansford, Renfro
Valley, Willailla, Pine Hill, Jep Hill, Flat Rock, Sinks and
Wellhope.

LAT...LON 3748 8444 3747 8438 3749 8436 3740 8416
      3738 8417 3736 8413 3735 8414 3731 8413
      3728 8422 3724 8422 3724 8426 3720 8426
      3720 8428 3718 8427 3717 8430 3716 8430
      3733 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 303DEG 18KT 3743 8448

HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
559 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KYZ051-112230-
Bath-
559 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BATH COUNTY...

At 559 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bethel, or 11
miles northwest of Owingsville, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethel.

LAT...LON 3828 8381 3828 8380 3829 8379 3828 8378
      3829 8377 3819 8378 3822 8394 3830 8385
      3830 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 266DEG 7KT 3827 8391

HAL