Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Jackson, KY

806 
WWUS53 KJKL 222020
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
420 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

KYC189-222029-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-180622T2030Z/
Owsley KY-
420 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OWSLEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3788 8330 3773 8315 3748 8317 3743 8350
      3752 8352 3774 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 245DEG 34KT 3776 8341 3767 8334 3755 8338 

$$

KYC025-129-153-175-237-222030-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-180622T2030Z/
Morgan KY-Breathitt KY-Magoffin KY-Lee KY-Wolfe KY-
420 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...WEST CENTRAL
MAGOFFIN...EASTERN LEE AND WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 419 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Lexie to Moct to Inverness, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Campton, Simpson, Lewis, Burkhart, Lexie, Noctor, Panama,
War Creek, Elkatawa, High Falls and Lane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8330 3773 8315 3748 8317 3743 8350
      3752 8352 3774 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 245DEG 34KT 3776 8341 3767 8334 3755 8338 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JP

577 
WWUS53 KJKL 222030
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

KYC025-129-153-175-237-222040-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-180622T2030Z/
Morgan KY-Breathitt KY-Magoffin KY-Lee KY-Wolfe KY-
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...WEST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...EASTERN LEE AND
WOLFE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3788 8330 3773 8315 3748 8317 3743 8350
      3752 8352 3774 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 245DEG 34KT 3780 8330 3771 8323 3759 8327 

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Made a few tweaks to hourly temps in an attempt to account for
the clusters of showers and storms currently passing across the
area. Afternoon highs in general look good but expect temporary
variations in the hourly temps as a result of passing showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Quick update for mainly PoPs. With the added sunshine have begun
to see some convection starting to fire a little earlier than
expected across the south. Adjustments have been made and zones
have been updated to freshen up and remove morning wording.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Forecast is on track this morning. Morning precip has all but
exited to the east with only some rain still in extreme eastern
Pike and along the higher terrain to the southeast. Other than
some isolated to widely scattered showers at times this morning
current lull in activity will continue until mid day when more
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms begin to redevelop
and move back into the area from the west. Still looking for some
strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon and possibly
into the early evening. The better the heating through the day the
more likely we are to see some of those storms. Will continue to
monitor trends.

UPDATE Issued at 824 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

A cluster of showers, with some embedded thunder, will be exiting
far eastern Kentucky in the next few hours. The latest HRRR has a
fairly good lull in the activity until later this afternoon.
Consequently, did delay the higher POPs an hour or so to align
more with this idea. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Surface low pressure is currently positioned across Illinois/Indiana,
with a cold front aligned southwest along the Mississippi Valley.
Aloft, an unseasonably stout upper level low is churning near the
Missouri/Illinois border, with several vorticity maxima spanned
out ahead of the center. One of these lobes is currently moving
across central Kentucky and Tennessee, with clusters of showers
and isolated storms initiating out ahead of this feature near and
west of the I-75 corridor.

The models remain in good agreement through the short term, with
the nearly stacked Ohio Valley system gradually dampening as it
moves northeast, reaching the upper Ohio Valley/eastern Great
Lakes region by late Saturday.

Today will feature another unsettled day of weather, as scattered
to numerous showers and a few storms will likely be ongoing early
this morning, as the vorticity lobe continues to move east. A
brief lull in activity may occur from the mid to late morning,
before the next more pronounced wave moves in for this afternoon.
Most of the short term guidance continues to suggest categorical
POPs for the entire area, so will maintain the higher numbers.
Highs will be suppressed once again, with generally low 80s
expected.

Showers and scattered storms will form in segments, some of which
could be strong, as 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts will be on tap.
Instability still looks more modest with MU CAPE values of around
1000 J/kg, with some pockets of numbers closer to 1500 J/kg
perhaps reaching just west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass. Wind
profiles look fairly unidirectional above 850 mb, and freezing
levels are above 13k feet, so will continue to mention the
possibility of strong wind gusts, with small hail a lesser threat.

Convection will diminish into this evening as the vort exits off
to our northeast. Clouds should still be prevalent given the
cyclonic flow, so any fog would be more patchy once again. Lows
will be a bit cooler than the past several nights, generally in
the mid 60s. The system will be dampening into Saturday; however,
given the maintained troughiness remaining close, scattered low-
topped convection still looks possible and will maintain chance
POPs. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

The models are in good agreement aloft, initially, with the extended
portion of the forecast for the Ohio Valley region. However, the
spread increases significantly through the start of the new work
week. They all depict the rising height regime over Kentucky and the
southern Ohio Valley similarly through Monday morning as a quick
hitting ridge moves into the area from the Midwest. This ridge will
dampen the energy still around in the wake of a trough pivoting
across the Northeast. This ridge of higher heights does pass
through quickly into Tuesday ahead of the next closed low trough
moving in from the Central Plains. The models show more
disagreement with this trough, though, with the GFS further north
and east than the ECMWF and Canadian. This trough then weakens as
it rides east along the northern fringes of an expansive southern
ridge into Wednesday. Eventually it will send height falls south
into eastern Kentucky - a bit stronger from the ECMWF than the GFS
and Canadian. Some energy will also pass through the area with
this through Thursday while heights will rebound to close out the
work week. Given the agreement early and increasing uncertainty
later in the extended portion of the forecast a general model
blend was accepted a the starting point for the grids with no
large scale adjustments needed.

Sensible weather will feature a continuation of the warm (aside
from cooler Sunday highs), humid, and stormy conditions we are
currently experiencing well into the upcoming week as a frontal
boundary stalls over the region while low pressure centers pass by
to the north. The convection will have a strong diurnal component
to it with coverage and intensity likely peaking in the afternoon
and evening hours most days. Aside from the cooling effects of
the convection, conditions will be warm and steamy during the days
and mild/muggy at night. Look for some patchy valley fog most
nights along with a small ridge to valley temperature difference -
with the lower end of the temperatures limited by the high
dewpoints.

Made mainly just some slight terrain based adjustments to the lows
each night during the extended. Did not deviate far from the blended
PoPs, though did beef them up each afternoon/evening to better match
the anticipated diurnal factor in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed
across the area as a result of diurnal heating. Tried to broad
brush a general coverage for our TAF sites during a window of
time that rainfall will be most likely for our terminals. At
issuance only site being affected by thunderstorms was SJS.
Convection will continue to increase across the area through the
mid afternoon time frame before diminishing into the early
evening. Model guidance suggest some MVFR GIGS will arrive late
tonight with a surface boundary. While the frontal boundary will
will push on through the area, showers will still redevelop as
long as a storm system remains in the region, or until it gradually
lifts out of the Ohio Valley during the day Saturday. Southwest
winds around 10 kts will lighten overnight before increasing
again during the day Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-232245-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
335 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible through this evening. Some of these
may contain strong wind gusts, as well as locally heavy rainfall,
which could result in isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
Thursday, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any incidents of severe weather or
flooding this evening.

RAY/GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

KYZ069-080-114-116-222000-
Jackson-Clay-Owsley-Laurel-
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAUREL...WEST
CENTRAL OWSLEY...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 319 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Maplesville, or
near London, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
London, Manchester, Grace, Pittsburg, Zekes Point, Maulden,
Fogertown, Mummie, Treadway, Tyner, Barcreek, Settle Store,
Chestnutburg, Shepherdtown, Hooker, Byron, Moores Creek, Royrader,
East Bernstadt and Sacker Gap.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3704 8403 3719 8416 3745 8381 3723 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 234DEG 25KT 3716 8402

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

KYZ069-108-111-112-114-222030-
Jackson-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Wolfe-
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OWSLEY...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
WEST CENTRAL BREATHITT...LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 341 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Travellers
Rest, or near Booneville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Beattyville, Booneville, Fincastle, Turin, Travellers Rest,
White Ash, Blake, Southfork, Fillmore, Cowcreek, Grass, Chestnut Gap,
Earnestville, Copebranch, Scoville, Ida May, Delvinta, Lerose and War
Creek.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3748 8393 3775 8361 3747 8333 3733 8363
      3736 8365 3736 8367 3734 8368 3734 8373
      3735 8378 3733 8379 3733 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 234DEG 25KT 3746 8379

GREIF