Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

Off and on showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the
offing the remainder of this afternoon and evening as the trifecta
of abundant moisture (precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2
inches), sufficient instability (CAPE in the 1-2 kJ/kg range), and
forcing for ascent (nearby frontal boundary and numerous impulses
embedded in the upper flow) remain in place across eastern Kentucky.
Instability has taken a hit with a good deal of morning and early
afternoon activity, owing to the above parameters and weak if any
capping. Deep layer shear of 20-25 knots at best should limit robust
updraft strength/organization, although any storm could briefly
pulse strong enough to produce wind gusts to near 40-50 mph and/or
small hail. Showers/storms have been progressing east at a decent
clip, thus basing the heavy rain/localized flooding threat on any
locales that see repeated rounds of storms.

Storm motions do look to potentially slow up this evening into
tonight, but would not expect as high of rainfall rates given waning
instability. That being said, the presence of cyclonic flow
undercutting upper ridging, cresting through Michigan into Ontario,
will keep enough forcing in place in a sultry airmass in order for
additional showers to develop/stream in overnight.

Peak heating will bring increasing chances for showers/storms again
Tuesday with a similar setup in play. Storm intensity will again
depend on early day convection, but areas receiving multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall will again be at the greatest threat for any
potential flooding impacts as a surface low rides through the
Midwest into the Great Lakes. Subsidence and northwest flow look to
follow a trough Tuesday night into Wednesday, perhaps bringing a
relatively drier period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

The extended period will start off active, as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region and brings showers and a few storms to the
area Wednesday and Thursday. This initial round of rain should come
to an end by late Thursday afternoon. After a brief lull, a second
round of rain is forecast from late Thursday night through late
Friday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected during this time. After another break in the action on
Saturday, a third batch of showers and storms may affect the area
Saturday night through early Monday morning, as yet another weather
system moves through the region. Temperatures during the period are
expected to run above normal, with daily highs generally in the mid
to upper 80s each day and nightly lows in the mid to upper 60s for
most locations.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

VFR conditions currently prevail across the airspace of eastern
Kentucky. However, showers and thunderstorms moving through this
afternoon into tonight will likely bring periods of MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities for all sites. Best chance for thunder/CB
development will be from now through this evening, so have
included TEMPO groups for TSRA for all TAF sites except SYM. This
is due to more widespread rain occurring this morning and early
this afternoon near SYM, likely inhibiting more robust CB
development through the day.

Uncertainty continues into tonight, with conditions largely
dependent on how showers and thunderstorms evolve this
afternoon/evening. Should see some degradation to visibilities
overnight into Tuesday morning, especially in locales that receive
rainfall then clear out tonight. Additional rounds of showers may
move through overnight and early Tuesday morning at anytime given
the saturated airmass in place. SYM currently stands the best
chance out of all sites to see Tuesday morning TS/CB as a result
of being nearer to large scale forcing, but this may very well
change through the day/night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122315-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon through Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through early tonight. The
strongest storms could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Tuesday through
Sunday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. These
could produce periods of locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GUSEMAN/AR

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