Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Jackson, KY

683 
WWUS53 KJKL 312204
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
604 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC013-121-147-235-312230-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180531T2230Z/
Bell KY-Knox KY-McCreary KY-Whitley KY-
604 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BELL...SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND
SOUTHERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 604 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Fourmile to Chenoa to near Hollyhill, moving southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Pineville, Julip, Artemus, Swan Lake,
Zion Hill, Clate, Birdseye, Red Ash, Verne, Gausdale, King, Louden,
Pruden, Hollyhill, Polly Camp, Binghamtown, Clear Creek Springs and
Nevisdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8431 3669 8440 3674 8430 3675 8407
      3690 8385 3678 8360 3658 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 309DEG 21KT 3680 8377 3668 8389 3663 8433 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JP

712 
WWUS53 KJKL 312222
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
622 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC013-121-147-235-312232-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180531T2230Z/
Bell KY-Knox KY-McCreary KY-Whitley KY-
622 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BELL...
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND SOUTHERN WHITLEY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3659 8431 3669 8440 3674 8430 3675 8407
      3690 8385 3678 8360 3658 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 312DEG 19KT 3674 8369 3662 8381 3657 8425 

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
506 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 506 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

Cold pool dominated MCS has weakened considerably as it crossed
the area, but has led to some training storms on the southern
flank of the downdraft leading to some potential flash flooding.
Another MCS is spreading into the area and will bring one last
round of heavy rainfall and potentially some strong winds as it
crosses the area over the next few hours. This should act to
finally push out the lingering boundaries and end the heavy rain
threat by later this evening. Until then, the flash flood threat
will continue and possibly the need for a few warnings. Still lots
of moist air feeding this activity with PW's well above 1 inch.
Some uncertainty what will happen overnight as instability will be
zapped and we may see a lull late tonight into Friday morning.

Another round of showers and storms will push through tomorrow
with a cold front which should be our last more widespread event
of the week. Localized heavy rain will again be possible, but the
severe threat will be less. Some isolated showers or drizzle could
hang on post frontal Saturday night, but should not be significant
rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with an active
upper level pattern in place. Expect a pattern with an increase
in amplitude as the models suggest a ridge building in the
western CONUS with a trough setting up over the east. Closer to
the surface, on Saturday an exiting cold front will be slow to
shift east with lingering high pressure to the east. This will
likely keep a focus of shower and thunderstorm over far eastern
Kentucky. Thus will keep pops over the east for Saturday. For
Sunday, a second trough will track over the ridge in the west that
has shifted east slightly in the Plains. This wave will then
track southeast into the OH Valley. Model soundings suggest ample
instability for this event. Thus will expect another round of
showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.

The mentioned upper level ridge will shift east as well through
the period. The mid level subsidence will eventually work its way
into eastern Kentucky by Monday. This will result in a dry period
across the area through the rest of the extended. Given the
northwest flow setting up, a shortwave could clip the northeastern
portion of the CWA for Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, will expect a
dry period for much of the rest of the extended with much cooler
high temperatures. In fact, these temps are more in the normal
range for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

A complex of showers and storms will move across the area this
afternoon. impacting areas in the northern half of the state. This
will bring some sharply reduced visibilities. Storms may
eventually affect areas farther south this evening, but confidence
is low as models are not handling the current situation. Thus,
may need some amendments later to include some thunderstorms as
confidence increases. Could see some gusty winds around any shower
or storm activity today. Activity could linger well into tonight,
but confidence is low in timing and aerial coverage.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-012115-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
205 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through tonight.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds
and flash flooding being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Friday through Sunday, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to send in any reports of wind damage, heavy
rain, and flooding this afternoon and evening.

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
434 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYZ079-080-084>088-312115-
Whitley-McCreary-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Laurel-Pulaski-
434 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL...BELL...SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN
PULASKI...NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 434 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Rockcastle Springs to Walden to Kayjay to
Cubage to near Cranks. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Harlan, Pineville, Middlesboro, Julip,
Bobs Creek, Varilla, Swan Lake, Cumberland Falls S.P., Ponza, Black
Snake, Mount Victory, Gausdale, Blanche, Krupp, Cubage, Bark Camp,
Dixie and Wasioto.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3659 8418 3664 8429 3694 8465 3714 8418
      3695 8399 3685 8380 3679 8348 3685 8307
      3674 8314 3670 8334 3667 8343 3667 8353
      3662 8364 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 025DEG 18KT 3701 8434 3684 8416 3674 8387 3671
8351 3674 8314

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W DENNISTON           37.92N 83.59W
05/31/2018                   MENIFEE            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON 460 E.

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DENNISTON               37.92N 83.54W
05/31/2018                   MENIFEE            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 77.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
440 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLOVER BOTTOM           37.50N 84.15W
05/31/2018                   JACKSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 421 IS WASHED OUT AT CLOVER BOTTOM.

&&

SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
442 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SANDGAP                 37.48N 84.09W
05/31/2018                   JACKSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 421 WAS WASHED OUT AT SANDGAP.

&&

SHALLENBERGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
503 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYZ079-080-083>086-312130-
Whitley-McCreary-Knox-Wayne-Laurel-Pulaski-
503 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...LAUREL...
NORTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTHERN PULASKI...CENTRAL MCCREARY AND
NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 502 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Maplesville to near Sloans Valley to near
Jamestown. Movement was south at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, London, Monticello, Whitley City, Burnside, Fariston,
Cumberland Falls S.P., Mount Victory, Bark Camp, Honeybee, Wilton,
Alpine, Hare, Ruth, Dorthae, Quinton, Betsey, Rockcastle Springs,
Bertha Station and Zula.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8494 3695 8490 3700 8484
      3705 8491 3709 8490 3711 8451 3718 8432
      3717 8430 3719 8427 3727 8404 3693 8392
      3672 8446 3672 8502 3676 8501 3685 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 352DEG 25KT 3714 8403 3698 8449 3695 8513

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
508 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW BETHANY           37.66N 83.49W
05/31/2018                   WOLFE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 1812...BLOCKING ONE LANE.

&&

JCARICO