Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Jackson, KY

121 
WWUS53 KJKL 152214
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
614 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

KYC119-152223-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180515T2230Z/
Knott KY-
614 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3737 8293 3743 8294 3746 8283 3744 8283
      3743 8284 3743 8283 3742 8284 3741 8281
      3742 8280 3742 8279 3737 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 255DEG 7KT 3742 8284 

$$

AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
319 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

Slow moving thunderstorms developed across the southern part of
the forecast area this afternoon with the most concentrated
cluster over northern Pulaski County. This prompted the issuance
of a flood advisory for the area. Scattered thunderstorms will
continue in the south for the remainder of the afternoon, with
chances increasing in the north later today.

Our area is between two weather systems. An upper level low was
over the northern Gulf of Mexico with troughing extending up the
crest of the Appalachians. The convection in the southern part of
the area was associated with this feature. An east west oriented
cold front was over central parts of IN and OH, and this front
continued to drop south. The remnants of convection associated
with the cold front should eventually reach the northern part of
the forecast area, but it is uncertain if the convection will hold
together as it moves south this evening and instability gradually
decreases.

GOES measured total precipitable water was 1.4 inches over the
area this afternoon, well above normal for mid May, and around the
90th percentile. Forecasts for Wednesday keep PW around 1.4 to
1.5 inches so thunderstorms on Wednesday will once again be
capable of heavy rain production. Instability will decrease
tonight and thunderstorm chances will diminish, but Wednesday
should be very similar to today as surface based CAPE increases to
3K and thunderstorms, possibly with locally heavy rain, develop
again in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

A rather active, but in some ways stagnant weather pattern will
remain in place across the area into early next week. The upper
level low currently over the Gulf of Mexico will drift north and
be absorbed into a trough that will remain over our area into the
weekend. At the same time the cold front currently over OH and IN
will become quasi stationary and linger in the OH and TN valleys
into the first part of next week. As such there will be daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms in our area, with the best
chances in the afternoon and evening of each day. It does appear
the PW will decrease later in the forecast period, and will follow
the previous idea of mentioning heavy rain in the Hazardous
weather outlook with any storm from now through Friday. By the
middle of next week the front may finally shift far enough south
that our rain chances decrease. Temperatures will remain above
normal, especially overnight lows. Daily showers and thunderstorms
will help to suppress afternoon maximum temperatures, but highs
will still be above normal for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

While VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period,
there will be scattered thunderstorms, especially from this
afternoon into this evening and again Wednesday afternoon. For
this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms will be most
numerous in the southern part of the forecast area. These are
associated with an area of low pressure over the southeastern
United States. A cold front is also located over the central parts
of OH and IN, and as this front drops south thunderstorm chances
will also increase in the northern part of the forecast area late
this afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain and
will carry VCTS in the TAFS. Any fog tonight will be dependent on
where rain falls this afternoon, and will only carry a few hours
of MVFR visibility with fog at SME around dawn.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-162245-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
340 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly during the evening.
The stronger storms could produce locally heavy rain, hail and
strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Wednesday through
Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into Friday could
produce locally heavy rain at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

SBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             EGYPT                   37.31N 83.90W
05/15/2018  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THE JUNCTION OF 412 AND KY
            3443.

&&

TBREWER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
453 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

KYZ114>117-152145-
Clay-Perry-Owsley-Leslie-
453 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...
NORTHWESTERN LESLIE...WEST CENTRAL PERRY AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES...

At 452 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brutus, or 11
miles northwest of Hyden. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhorn, Seth, Jacks Creek, Enline, Saul, Mistletoe, Sizerock,
Shoal, Kaliopi, Oneida, Brutus, Bear Branch, Barcreek, Whoopflarea,
Panco, Buckhorn Lake S.P., Spurlock, Big Creek, Peabody and Valjean.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3714 8361 3729 8367 3734 8354 3733 8353
      3734 8352 3734 8350 3737 8347 3721 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 336DEG 4KT 3725 8356

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
454 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

KYZ120-152145-
Pike-
454 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY...

At 454 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Shelby Gap, or
8 miles northwest of Clintwood, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockhouse, Shelby Gap, Lookout, Ashcamp, Dorton and Adamson.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3723 8250 3721 8253 3720 8257 3721 8259
      3722 8259 3726 8264 3736 8248 3726 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 236DEG 10KT 3724 8255

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

KYZ118-120-152145-
Pike-Letcher-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LETCHER COUNTY...

At 505 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Wright, or near
Whitesburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jenkins, Fleming-Neon, Winters, Millstone, Horn, Shelby Gap,
Hemphill, Wright, Craftsville, Fishpond Lake, Beefhide, Chip,
Cromona, Potters Fork, Payne Gap, Thornton, Baker, Dorton, Lowndes
and Tolliver Town.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3721 8253 3720 8256 3715 8263 3712 8272
      3711 8273 3719 8281 3731 8258 3723 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 239DEG 18KT 3715 8272

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
523 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

KYZ115-117-152200-
Perry-Leslie-
523 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LESLIE AND CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTIES...

At 523 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dryhill, or
near Hyden, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Hyden, Avawam, Dryhill, Viper, Jeff, Toulouse, Kaliopi,
Wooton, Diablock, Bulan and Frew.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3724 8342 3733 8316 3717 8310 3715 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 258DEG 23KT 3721 8334

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
539 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

KYZ115-118-152215-
Perry-Letcher-
539 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LETCHER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES...

At 539 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Arminta, or 9
miles southeast of Hazard, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Letcher, Vicco, Blackey, Arminta, Indian Bottom, Bluefield, Red Star,
Carbon Glow, Elko, Gander, Carcassonne, Cornettsville and David.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3721 8309 3721 8301 3719 8298 3717 8298
      3719 8295 3713 8295 3713 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 263DEG 10KT 3717 8305

AR