River Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
640 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

Isolated rain showers will be moving into the southwestern
portion of the forecast area early this morning. The forecast is
still on track with this for the most part, so major update is
required at this time. The latest obs were ingested into the
forecast grids to establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to eastern
Kentucky today, as it makes it way across the Tennessee valley.
There may be a slushy mix of rain and snow along the leading edge
of the precipitation this morning, as it moves from south to
north across eastern Kentucky. There may be some light slushy
accumulations in isolated locations, but all in all the snow
should have very few if any impacts. The snow should be gone by
around noon today, as temperatures will have warmed well above
freezing by then. The rain should taper off quickly this
afternoon and evening, and should be gone by around dawn on
Sunday. Another weather system may bring a second round of rain to
the area by early Sunday evening.

Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal today,
with highs in the low to mid 40s on tap across the area. Tonight's
lows will likely be above normal, due to the influence of cloud
cover and a brief period of southwest flow. A warm up is in store
for Sunday, as winds shift around to the southeast and south,
which could lead to some downslope warming during the day across
eastern Kentucky. We should see highs on Sunday rise into the mid
to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

The models are in good agreement with the broad scale pattern
aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. They all
depict a semi-static ridge through the southeast holding broad
and deep southwest flow in place over the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. This ridge will shift a bit through the seven day
forecast but its influence will be dominant for the weather
across Kentucky. Specifically, its burgeoning heights on Monday
off the coast of Florida will support higher heights for Kentucky
through Wednesday. The better energy lifts out of the area
initially Sunday night with the rising heights and as a result,
through Wednesday morning, the mid level energy stream remains
too far north to have a big influence on the convection chances
for our area. This changes later Wednesday with a better push of
energy into the state associated with a weakening trough sliding
through the Ohio Valley. After this point, the model variance
increases with the ECMWF holding the southeast ridge onshore
Florida compared to the weaker and more displaced to the southeast
GFS. While the model agreement suffers at the end of the period
it remains clear that eastern Kentucky will be in a wet and very
warm pattern through the entire latter parts of the forecast. A
general model blend looks reasonable for the extended.

Sensible weather will feature a drying trend for Sunday night as a
warm front lifts through and pulls away to the north. Mostly dry
weather should commence through early Wednesday under ridging
aloft and sfc high pressure off to the east. The pressure pattern
will continue to support ample southwest winds bringing in warm
and moist air from the south. This air mass will be activated on
Wednesday as a sfc cold front approaches from the northwest with a
potential for thunder. This boundary looks like it will stall out
over the area and we could see another surge of moisture and lift
develop for Kentucky into Thursday - prolonging the concerns for
excessive rainfall well into the upcoming week. Another wave will
then be possible for Friday extending this warm and wet period.

Did make some changes to the lows each night of the long term
portion of the forecast for terrain distinctions given a
prolonged environment favorable for ridge to valley temp splits.
As for PoPs, did beef them up for that latter wave from the ECMWF
on Thursday that may not be as well represented in the model
blend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this morning.
Conditions will be at their worst once widespread light to
moderate rain showers begin to affect the airports. The rain will
begin to taper off this afternoon and this evening, and should be
out of the area by around dawn on Sunday. The rain should move
away from the TAF sites between 0 and 4Z tonight. Winds should be
generally light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening for
KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106>109-111-112-114-
181100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-
Breathitt-Owsley-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, Monticello, Sandy Hook,
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville,
Jackson, and Booneville
400 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>120-181100-
Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of London, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
400 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Additional rainfall may bring localized flooding to eastern
Kentucky today, as the ground is already saturated from previous
rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AR/GREIF