Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
855 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

.UPDATE...Will allow different advisories in effect until 10 am-
Noon to expire. Expecting mostly cloudy skies S of I-10 corridor
with some partial insolation north. Latest consensus temperature
guidance support current high temp forecast for Today. Will
maintain wind advisory coastal ne FL counties where seeing
30-35 mph gusts.

Did not adjust current Winter Storm Watch...although considered
addding Duval...Union, Bradford given threat to western portion
of those counties. To prevent risk of flip flop...decided to
defer to afternoon when warning/ advisory decisions will be made
based on latest guidance. Will be a very difficult decision given
a climatologically rare threat with potentially significant impact
for our area, and a shallow cold air pattern our model guidance
tends to do poorly with.

&&

.AVIATION...Currently seeing some MFVR cigs at coastal TAF sites.
Anticipating generally VFR cigs Today...with worsening conditions
later Tonight.

&&

.MARINE...No changes planned in next CWF issuance...with Gale
Warning continuing til evening.

Rip Currents: High Risk with strong onshore flow. Continuing
high surf advisory ne FL coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  27  38  23 /   0  10  50   0
SSI  41  34  40  26 /   0  70  90   0
JAX  42  33  41  25 /   0  90  80   0
SGJ  44  40  46  28 /  10  80  80   0
GNV  43  34  43  24 /   0  60  80   0
OCF  46  37  45  26 /   0  40  80   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-
     Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Suwannee-Union.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for Baker-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-
     Suwannee-Union.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Alachua-
     Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Columbia-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-
     St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Alachua-Bradford-
     Clay-Coastal Nassau-Inland Duval-Putnam.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     Baker-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Suwannee-
     Union.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff
     Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters from
     Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Wolf/Cordero/McGinnis