Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...
Highly amplified ridge remains across the northern Atlantic while
upper level troughing remains across the Great Lakes, diving
southward into the lower Mississippi River Valley. As a result, a
steady stream of tropical moisture remains across Florida and into
Georgia, especially over the western half the forecast area.
Scattered storms have been increasing in coverage across this
area, moving northward but producing locally heavy rainfall along
the way. That will be the primary hazard of most storms today,
though we do have an above normal amount of 0-6km bulk shear for
early August. Morning sounding at JAX showing 32 knots, and SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast values of 30 to 40 knots extend
northward into southeast Georgia. Most of the storms will be
diurnally driven, though scattered showers and some thunderstorms
may be ongoing across western zones overnight and early Thursday
morning. The the upper level trough moves very little and the
ridge over the Atlantic strengthens for tomorrow. The slightly
closer edge of the trough may allow a weak shortwave to enter our
area tomorrow to help enhance coverage of storms, but overall
Thursday should end up fairly similar to today. The pattern starts
to shift some on Friday as the Atlantic ridge starts to nose
westward over Florida and along the Southeast coast. Onshore flow
will shift winds more southeast rather than south-southeast as
the surface high remains nearly stationary across the Atlantic.
This should force the Atlantic seabreeze further inland and focus
convection more east of I-95. PWATs remain near 2 inches and
overall shear remains low so heavy rainfall will be the primary
concern for Friday.

By Saturday, heights rise as upper level ridge strengthens over
the Atlantic and starts nudging eastward along the Atlantic coast.
Surface high also remains steady across the Atlantic with onshore
flow continuing but perhaps a bit weaker than the previous days as
the high drifts northward. Total rainfall through the short term
will range from about 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts
expected, especially across the western third of the forecast
area. The bulk of this rainfall will occur over the next 2 days
and could cause some additional localized flooding concerns.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...
A gradual warming trend with below normal rain chances given
drier air in place through Tue. A mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge
axis will position over the Carolinas Sun and Mon, then settle
south over the local area Tue then SE of the region into Wed. A
dominant east coast sea breeze regime is expected early in the
week with the best chances of afternoon/evening sea breeze merger
toward the I-75 corridor. Tue, both sea breezes will develop and
press inland with best rain chances across the interior between
the St. Johns River basin and I-75. By Wed, WSW steering flow
develops as the ridge axis is expected across south FL with a
transition to a more dominant west coast sea breeze regime and the
best chance of afternoon/evening tstorms between the St. Johns
River basin and the I-95 corridor. Coverage of showers and tstorms
will be less compared to this week as PWAT values fall below
climo values near 1.5 inches through Tue, then moisture increases
from the Gulf Wed with more seasonal convective coverage expected.
A few pulse strong storms are possible each day, but overall a
needed break in rainfall coverage for most areas.

Temperatures will trend near normal in the lower 90s inland to
upper 80s coast. Lows will range in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy ESE winds with speeds 10-15 kts with gusts to 16-22 kts
observed at terminals through early afternoon outside of
developing showers and tstorms. Restrictions due to thunderstorms
moving across the terminals this afternoon into the early evening.
Included tempo groups for all TAF sites. Rainfall will press
offshore of the Atlantic coast into the early evening, trailed by
gradually clearing skies across the terminals. Both NAM and SREF
hinted at patchy ground fog and low stratus across NE FL and SE GA
06-12Z Thursday but with fairly low probabilities. At this time
trended with SCT010 conditions for now as boundary layer winds are
expected to remain elevated to prevent significant fog
restrictions. Similar rainfall pattern expected Thu as today with
best chances of tstorms in afternoon and early evening impacting
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southeast winds have fallen below caution levels and flirt
near caution levels through the next few days especially for the
offshore waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Santa Fe River Basin continues in minor flood this week, while
other basins across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia
remain elevated. With the potential for heavy rainfall over the
next few days, rises to action stage or minor flooding is possible
for other rivers across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  80  30
SSI  86  77  86  77 /  50  60  80  50
JAX  90  74  89  74 /  70  70  90  30
SGJ  88  74  88  74 /  50  60  70  40
GNV  90  73  89  73 /  70  60  80  40
OCF  90  73  89  73 /  70  50  90  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Elsenheimer/Enyedi/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
612 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

FLZ032-033-037-133-012245-
Coastal St. Johns FL-Putnam FL-Clay FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
612 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. JOHNS...NORTHEASTERN
PUTNAM AND EAST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Federal Point, or near Hastings, moving north at 20 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
World Golf Village, Federal Point, Picolata, Spuds and Bakersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 8146 2973 8158 3005 8163 3005 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 182DEG 19KT 2981 8153

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
615 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

FLZ025-033-125-012245-
Inland Duval FL-Coastal Duval FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
615 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS AND
CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nas Jax, or near Jacksonville, moving north at 15 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts up to 45 mph can
be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Mandarin, Fruit Cove, Arlington, Nas Jax, Baymeadows,
Ortega, San Marco, Riverside and Tallyrand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 8157 3010 8166 3018 8168 3019 8168
      3019 8169 3045 8176 3046 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 183DEG 14KT 3026 8165

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
641 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 WSW FRUIT COVE        30.10N 81.63W
08/01/2018                   St. Johns          FL   PUBLIC

            BROADCAST MEDIA PASSED ON PUBLIC PHOTOGRAPH OF A FUNNEL
            CLOUD NEAR SR 13 AND ROBERTS ROAD.

&&

NMCGINN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
644 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

FLZ024-025-124-125-GAZ166-012300-
Inland Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-Coastal Nassau FL-
Coastal Camden GA-
644 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NASSAU...NORTH
CENTRAL DUVAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oceanway, or near Jacksonville International Arpt, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts up to 45 mph can
be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys and Yulee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 8162 3050 8169 3076 8165 3069 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 203DEG 21KT 3055 8164

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
730 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

FLZ037-038-138-020030-
Coastal Flagler FL-Putnam FL-Inland Flagler FL-
730 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 729 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barberville, moving north at 20 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Andalusia, Beverly Beach and
Espanola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2946 8109 2946 8112 2943 8110 2941 8115
      2926 8115 2926 8141 2940 8142 2940 8143
      2938 8145 2936 8151 2960 8147 2959 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 190DEG 19KT 2924 8137

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
807 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

FLZ033-038-133-138-020045-
Coastal Flagler FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland Flagler FL-
Inland St. Johns FL-
807 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FLAGLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 806 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palm Coast, moving north at 30 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph
can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Saint Augustine Beach,
Marineland, Crescent Beach, Saint Augustine Shores, Butler Beach,
Beverly Beach and Espanola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2944 8112 2946 8138 2983 8132 2983 8121
      2953 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 190DEG 27KT 2953 8125

AK