Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
212 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NE FL TODAY, THEN MUCH DRIER
TUESDAY...

.NEAR TERM...This afternoon and Tonight...

Much drier and more stable air trailing a surface front was
filtering south of the Altamaha River basin with surface dew pts
falling into the 60s under NW flow. Rain chances this afternoon
and early evening will focus across NE FL, especially south of the
I-10 corridor where convergence and deeper moisture ahead of the
surface front will coincide with the dominant west coast sea
breeze as it edges inland toward the Atlantic coast. A few strong
to pulse severe storms are possible this afternoon and early this
evening with the main convective hazards excessive lightning,
gusty winds and possibly some hail with plenty of CAPE in hail
growth zone and cool 500 mb temps near -10 deg C per the 12Z RAOB.
Convection will be scattered in nature as invasion of drier air
from the NW limits coverage. Expect a fairly early end to rainfall
potential this evening as front settle southward over NE FL with
mostly clear skies expected across most areas by 9-10 pm. Drier
low level airmass and cooler NNW drainage flow around a broad
surface low edging southward down the SE Atlantic Bight tonight
favors lower minimum temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s
inland to the upper 60s/low 70s toward the coast.

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Wednesday...

Tue and Tue night...Much drier conditions with a rain free
forecast. Near zonal westerly flow aloft and surface synoptic flow
around a broad surface low edging southward down the SE Atlantic
coast will bring a dominant WNW steering flow across the area and
stronger west coast sea breeze, which will focus the warmest
temperatures toward the St. Johns River corridor and Atlantic
coast in the afternoon where highs in the lower 90s are expected.
Precipitable water content falls below 1 inch with a min of
0.60-0.70 inches, which will bring mostly sunny skies less some
FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus and an increase in high cirrus clouds
from the west ahead of a short wave trough axis moving east across
the Gulf Coast states. Much drier air with dew pts in the 50s
across SE GA to 60s across NE FL will create feels like heat index
values near ambient dry bulb temperatures, a welcome relief in
humidity compared to the muggy weekend. Tuesday night high clouds
will make for partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with below
climo temperatures falling into the mid/upper 60s inland thanks to
dry low level air in place.

Wed through Thu night..Slowly increasing rain across NE FL from
south to north with mostly dry conditions across SE GA as a broad
surface low drifts over GA with a surface trough axis settling
across northern FL. A mid level short wave trough axis moves
across the eastern GOMEX Wed with an axis extending across the
local forecast area, generally bisecting SE GA and NE FL. This
pattern will favor low rain chances across NE FL on the southern
side of the mid level and surface trough axes where deeper
moisture, dynamical forcing and low level convergence will focus
while mostly dry conditions will prevail across SE GA on the
subsident side of the troughs.

Latest 12Z GFS is not as aggressive forming a cut-off mid level
low along the mid/upper level trough axis late Wed into Thu across
the eastern Gulf or northern FL, and now shifts this development
much farther south over the SE Gulf with drier and more stable air
across the local area. If the low cuts off farther north as
previous runs suggested, this would strengthen WSW flow across the
FL peninsula and pivot the deeper moisture plume northward across
the local forecast area and thus bring increasing rain chances
northward into Thu. At this time trended toward scattered
convection both days focused across our southern FL zones,
generally south of I-10. Thu night the upper low begins to
retrograde, taking the broad surface low over the local area
westward with it. Temperatures will trend near to slightly above
normal with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and min temps in the
upper 60s/lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

A fairly weak pressure pattern this period as the mean layer
trough shift west of the area as the Bermuda ridge builds across
south Florida. This regime will bring a dominate southerly
steering flow over the local area which will enable both sea
breezes to develop and press inland, serving as the catalyst for
diurnally driven scattered showers and tstorms each day.
Temperatures will trend near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered storms could cause restrictions at SGJ and
GNV initially, lower potential at VQQ, JAX and CRG. Prevailing
VFR at SSI. Rainfall potential will end early evening, with
prevailing VFR for most sites through tomorrow. Included MVFR
restrictions at GNV and VQQ due to shallow ground fog.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will move across the waters today and be south of the
waters tonight. Weak low pressure will prevail over the southeastern
states on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by Atlantic ridging
building westward over our waters late this week. Westerly winds
15 kts or less will prevail with combined seas 4 ft or less
through the end of the week with winds becoming southerly near the
coast in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. An extended
period of no headlines expected.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rips under offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  92  73  89  72 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  94  68  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
SGJ  93  73  91  71 /  30  10   0  10
GNV  92  68  91  69 /  40  10   0  10
OCF  90  70  91  69 /  40  10   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Enyedi/23/Bricker

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