Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
433 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

.Currently...
Late afternoon surface analysis depicts weak Atlantic ridging
(1016 millibars) extending across south Florida, with a cold front
pushing southward through the mid-Atlantic states and the Ohio
Valley. Aloft...troughing continues to dig into the southeastern
states in response to a developing cutoff upper level low
developing over Virginia. An embedded shortwave trough within the
strengthening northwesterly flow pattern aloft is traversing
southeast Georgia, which has kicked off numerous thunderstorms
that are merging into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that is
progressing across inland southeast Georgia and the northern
Suwannee Valley. Damaging wind gusts have been noted within this
developing MCS, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
all but our southwestern counties until 8 PM tonight. Temperatures
ahead of this MCS are soaring into the upper 80s to lower 90s as
west- southwesterly low level flow strengthens, which is pinning
the Atlantic sea breeze along and east of Interstate 95 in our
area. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s as of 20Z,
and latest LAPS analysis depicts surface based CAPE values
approaching 3000 J/KG in areas not impacted by the MCS.

.Near Term (This afternoon through Sunday)...
Latest short-term, high resolution guidance indicates that the MCS
will accelerate southeastward across our region through the late
afternoon and early evening hours, moving offshore around 23Z.
Activity may not reach locations south of Gainesville, although
outflow boundaries propagating southeastward from the MCS will
likely initiate convection along the St. Johns and Flagler coasts
during the 22Z-23Z time frame. Steepening lapse rates and cooling
temperatures aloft will support strong to severe convection within
the MCS, with damaging downburst winds and hail being the primary
threats. Debris cloudiness will linger this evening in the wake of
this MCS, with west-southwesterly low level flow possibly
developing widely scattered convection over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico during the predawn hours on Sunday, which could sneak into
the Suwannee Valley towards sunrise. Lows tonight will only fall
to the low to mid 70s.

A cold front will progress into the southeastern states on Sunday
in response to a potent shortwave trough digging through the Great
Lakes states. The 12Z operational ECMWF depicts an embedded
shortwave trough within the deep northwesterly flow pattern moving
into our region during the afternoon hours, while the 12Z
operational GFS keeps shortwave energy to the west of our region
tomorrow. Sunday will likely be the hottest day thus far this year
for much of our area as west southwesterly low level flow
strengthens ahead of the front and prevents the formation of the
Atlantic coast sea breeze, resulting in highs climbing to the mid
90s nearly area-wide and max heat index values approaching 105
degrees. Widely scattered convection will likely be triggered
ahead of the front, most likely along the Interstate 10 corridor
and along the Atlantic coastal counties during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Dry mid level air will again enhance the
potential for damaging wind gusts, with activity possibly pulsing
during the late afternoon hours.

.Short Term (Sunday Night through Tuesday Night)...
The cold front will progress across southeast Georgia on Sunday
night, with some convection possibly developing ahead of the front
over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and moving into the Suwannee
Valley before sunrise. Otherwise, a much drier air mass will
plunge into southeast Georgia, with scattered thunderstorms
developing ahead of the front across northeast and north central
Florida. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s area-wide, but
heat index values will be held in check over southeast Georgia as
dewpoints plunge to near 60 during the afternoon hours. Heat index
values will climb to 100-105 over northeast and north central
Florida during the afternoon hours before convection develops.
Strong thunderstorms will again be possible to the south of I-10,
where cooling mid level temperatures and dry mid level air will
aid in the development of damaging downburst wind gusts.

Any lingering convection over northeast and north central Florida
will push offshore on Monday evening as the cold front presses
into north central Florida. A drier air mass and just a few
interludes of high cirrus overnight will allow lows to fall to the
lower 60s over inland southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee
Valley, with lows at the coast and across north central Florida in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

An unseasonably dry air mass will then plunge into the rest of our
area on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with dewpoints falling to the
60-65 range area-wide. The dry air mass and plenty of June
sunshine will still allow highs to reach the lower 90s inland,
with an afternoon sea breeze keeping coastal highs in the upper
80s. Lows Tuesday night will fall to the mid to upper 60s inland
and the lower 70s at the coast.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Troughing will remain in place over the eastern U.S. as ridging
aloft builds over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest.
Shortwave troughs embedded in the persistent northwesterly flow
pattern will be difficult to time, but they may spark scattered
diurnal convection over our region as low level moisture gradually
increases. Highs will climb into the lower 90s each day inland,
with active sea breezes keeping coastal highs in the mid to upper
80s. Lows will fall to the 65-70 range inland and the low to mid
70s at the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Restrictions due to thunderstorms near terminals this afternoon
through early evening and included TEMPO for TS in all terminals
through 22Z. Coastal terminals may need extension for TEMPO TS
through 00-02Z given storm motion to the ESE and storms could
encounter sea breeze near the Atlantic coast where they could
intensify. After midnight, mostly dry conditions expected with WSW
surface winds 4-8 kts. SREF advertised low probability of MVFR
stratus edging inland from the GOMEX which could impact GNV, some
MOS guidance also indicated low stratus potential at our east
coast FL terminals. Trended toward FEW-SCT 1-2 kft after 06Z for
FL terminals at this time as persistence (past 2 mornings) low
GOMEX stratus has brought MVFR to LIFR cigs.

&&

.Marine...
Numerous thunderstorms will move across the southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida coastal waters late this afternoon through the
evening hours. Severe thunderstorms will be possible, with
damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning strikes being the
main threats. Outside of thunderstorm activity, west southwesterly
winds will strengthen this evening, but should remain just below
Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria tonight. A cold front
will approach the Georgia coastal waters by Sunday afternoon, with
wind speeds reaching SCEC criteria during the evening wind surge
over the offshore waters, and likely remaining just below
criteria near shore. Seas offshore will build to 3-5 feet on
Sunday night. The front will push into the northeast Florida
waters on Monday, with showers and thunderstorms developing along
the front through early evening. The front will then push south of
our local waters on Tuesday, with light offshore winds prevailing,
except for the afternoon sea breeze in the near shore waters.
Winds and seas will decrease on Tuesday and will remain light for
the rest of next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk expected through much of next week as
offshore winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  72  92 /  20  20  20  10
SSI  75  93  76  90 /  40  20  20  20
JAX  73  95  74  93 /  30  30  20  40
SGJ  75  93  75  91 /  50  30  10  50
GNV  73  92  74  91 /  30  40  20  50
OCF  73  91  73  90 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Nelson/Enyedi/Bricker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
434 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

GAZ136-022115-
Wayne GA-
434 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Screven, or 10 miles north of Patterson, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected
along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Jesup, Gardi, Screven and Broadhurst.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3159 8171 3158 8170 3156 8170 3154 8168
      3155 8167 3133 8173 3136 8180 3135 8187
      3141 8206 3145 8205 3147 8206 3148 8209
      3148 8213 3156 8213 3157 8215 3157 8213
      3164 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 284DEG 15KT 3154 8210

ENYEDI

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