Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
209 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-TUESDAY/...

Rest of this afternoon...Forecast still on track to have Rain Band
with numerous showers and storms across inland NE FL and inland
SE GA will continue to move North and Northeast and Isolated
storms in this band still expected to have the potential to become
strong/severe with gusty winds of 40-60mph and still enough
rotation to produce isolated tornadoes from the Suwannee River
Valley Northward across inland SE GA this afternoon. Average
rainfall amounts expected to range from 0.50"-1.00" while locally
heavier storms with rainfall amounts around 2 inches likely and
this is despite the faster storm motion since some "training" will
be possible in the North-South oriented rain band.

Tonight...Evening shower/storm activity mainly over inland areas
will slowly dissipate after sunset, while lingering scattered to
numerous showers will remain possible on the East side of northward
moving Alberto, with activity continuing over inland SE GA and
the Suwannee River Valley. Rainfall totals of another 0.25"-0.50"
possible overnight in these areas. Further east along the I-95
corridor and Atlantic Coastal counties expecting just isolated
shower activity possible during the overnight hours. Muggy
overnight lows in the 70s expected again.

Tuesday...As steering flow becomes SW around Alberto across
NE FL/SE GA and moist plume of tropical airmass rotates across the
region expecting daytime heating into the mid/upper 80s to once
again trigger numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours
and with the SW steering flow better chances for these storms to
reach the beaches. Any lingering tornado threat will be limited
but gusty winds of 40-60 mph will be possible in isolated strong
activity.

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday night through Friday/...

Remnants of Alberto should be well to the Northwest Tuesday night,
with high pressure ridge building to the East. This pattern will
continue the moist Southerly flow. So, while most convection will
dissipate Tuesday evening with loss of daytime heating can not rule
out showers continuing into the night. For Wednesday into Thursday,
the ridge will continue to build across from the East, helping to
cut off the moist flow, but diurnal instability should be enough to
generate afternoon convection. The high moves to the Southeast
Friday, as a cool front dips into the Southeastern US. The resultant
West Southwest flow will limit moisture pulling into region, but frontal
convergence coupled with diurnal instability should generate
afternoon convection, but coverage may be limited.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Sunday/...

Near stationary front will remain over Southeast US this period,
with surface high pressure to the South. This pattern will result in
a continued West Southwest flow. A series of waves are expected to
develop and move through the base of the frontal trough, which could
enhance daily diurnal convection this period.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...

A band of storms, along with scattered popups, will move through
the region from the south bringing showers, thunderstorms, reduced
ceilings, and reduced visibility with heavy precipitation. GNV
will be impacted the soonest, with storms affecting other inland
airfields later in the afternoon. Coastal airfields will have
reduced exposure to thunderstorms today. Winds will predominantly
be out of the southeast, with gusts diminishing in strength after
sunset. Ceilings will likely drop to IFR levels overnight with the
southernmost airfields, GNV and SGJ, as the most likely sites to
be impacted.

&&

.MARINE...

Latest Hi-res model runs and local Wave model pushed nearshore
winds to SE/S around 20 knots and nearshore waves into the 5-7 ft
and have upgraded all waters to SCA conds for today, this in
agreement with nearshore buoys (41008,41112,41117) which are
already into the 5-6 ft range by 12z. Otherwise forecast remains
on track for SE-S winds 20-25 knots today becoming South tonight
at 15-20 knots with more slowly subsiding trend on Tuesday as
Alberto pulls further away from the local waters.

High pressure will be East of the region Tuesday night through
Thursday, with winds just below advisory criteria Tuesday night.
Area waters will be between high pressure to the South and a trough
of low pressure over the Southeastern US through the weekend. Winds
could approach advisory criteria Saturday night.

Rip Currents: Morning breaker heights in the 3-5 ft from reports
along the NE FL coast with a few as high as 6 feet, so along with
moderate SE-S flow, expect High Risk of Rip Currents today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Locally heavy rainfall with additional 1-3 inches possible today
and tomorrow in the heaviest storms will produce temporary and
localized flooding problems while overall average rainfall amounts
will be close to one inch which should keep most River Basins
below flood stage with Action Stage levels expected in the Santa
Fe, St. Marys and Altamaha River Basins early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  87  71  85 /  40  60  20  70
SSI  76  83  76  83 /  20  40  20  50
JAX  72  88  72  88 /  30  60  20  50
SGJ  73  86  72  85 /  30  60  20  50
GNV  72  86  71  85 /  40  70  20  60
OCF  72  86  71  86 /  30  80  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Hess/Corless

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
411 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

GAZ134-135-151-282100-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-
411 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PIERCE...BACON AND CENTRAL
APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of West Green to near Jamestown to
near Race Pond. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Baxley, Alma, Blackshear, Patterson, Graham, Offerman, Bristol, New
Lacy and Pine Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 8218 3147 8213 3145 8205 3136 8204
      3131 8199 3128 8201 3126 8214 3120 8219
      3125 8234 3139 8242 3140 8240 3161 8263
      3167 8262 3167 8252 3173 8252 3174 8255
      3175 8252 3184 8252 3184 8243 3193 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 207DEG 19KT 3164 8262 3138 8237 3095 8217

SANDRIK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
413 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

FLZ031-032-036-037-040-282100-
Putnam FL-Alachua FL-Bradford FL-Marion FL-Clay FL-
413 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ALACHUA...SOUTHEASTERN
BRADFORD...NORTH CENTRAL MARION...NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 413 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sparr, or near Citra, moving north at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Interlachen, Fort McCoy, Melrose, Citra, Hawthorne, Sparr, Rochelle,
Melrose Landing, Cross Creek and Orange Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2928 8199 2930 8223 2983 8234 2971 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 185DEG 34KT 2936 8209

NELSON