Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
248 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Thursday/...
The low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico will be drawn
northward today with it's movement eastward being restricted by
the persistent and anomalous ridge along the eastern conus and
western Atlantic. A significant amount of moisture will continue
to pump into the region with the deep southerly flow, resulting in
cloudy skies and numerous showers and scattered storms through
Thursday. Rainfall amounts over this period are expected to be as
high as 1.5 to 2 inches in some areas through Thursday, bringing
the potential risk of water pooling over roads in areas where the
ground has already previously been soaked by rain.

Storms will continue to move across the area to the north at a
fairly good clip of 20-30 mph this afternoon, with storm
development diminishing in the central and eastern parts of the
forecast area overnight but remaining fairly strong along the
western areas closest to the Gulf coast. Model forecasts indicate
conditions for Thursday to be similar to today, with a few strong
storms possible and the largest risks being from winds during
convective downbursts.

Afternoon high temperatures for both today and Thursday will
reach into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows are expected to be
in the high 60s inland and in the low 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Night Through Friday Night/...
Strong upper ridging will remain centered near Bermuda through the
short term period. This blocking pattern will keep upper level
troughing over the region, and unsettled weather is forecast to
continue. Showers and storms are forecast to be ongoing,
especially across the eastern half of the region. These showers
and storms will push offshore, with mainly dry conditions after
midnight. Deep south to southwesterly flow will continue, but
slightly drier air will work its way into the area on Friday. The
deep plume of moisture is forecast to push offshore, and this will
lead to slightly lower rain chances. Showers and storms will move
inland from the Gulf coast in the late morning to early
afternoon, then push towards the east coast through the mid to
late afternoon. An east coast sea breeze is also forecast to
develop, and a few strong storms are forecast along this
convergence area between I-95 and Highway 301. The main threat
will be gusty winds.

Overnight lows Thursday and Friday night will be in the mid to
upper 60s across the interior and near 70 along the coast. Highs
on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Wednesday/...
Upper level shortwave over the Ohio Valley on Saturday is forecast
to move off to the northeast, with just a broad weakness remaining
over the northeastern Gulf and Southeast states. The strong and
stacked ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to shift
slowly westward. A shortwave is forecast to rotate around the
western side of the ridge, and push into the region on Sunday. A
more south to southeasterly flow pattern is then forecast to
prevail early next week. At least weak upper troughing is forecast
to continue through the middle of next week, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms expected each afternoon. Highs are
forecast to be near normal, with overnight lows warmer than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in the afternoon and evening as
storms move through the area towards the north at about 20 knots.
Conditions will improve to VFR overnight with the possibility of
lowering ceilings in the early AM. The Gainesville area should
continue to expect showers and storms overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
With upper level low pressure persisting over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico, southerly to southeasterly flow will continue
over the waters through the rest of the week. SCEC conditions will
continue to return periodically throughout the week and into the
weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  82  66  85 /  60  60  30  60
SSI  72  81  71  80 /  50  60  30  40
JAX  68  85  68  85 /  40  60  20  60
SGJ  68  83  68  82 /  50  60  30  60
GNV  67  84  67  85 /  50  60  20  60
OCF  67  84  67  85 /  40  60  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Corless/Kennedy/Zibura

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>