Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...Potential for severe weather and flooding through Monday...

.UPDATE...
Stalled frontal boundary across SE GA continues to provide
numerous showers and storms with isolated strong to severe storms
possible through the night as plenty of instability to support
localized supercell activity. Flooding rainfall will continue to
be possible across SE GA through the night and edge towards the
FL/GA border towards morning and Flood Watch remains in effect.
Most of NE FL will remain in the warm sector overnight and will be
unstable enough to trigger showers at any time, otherwise near
record warmth expected with lows in the lower 70s for NE FL and
mid/upper 60s for SE GA. On Monday...frontal boundary will begin
to slowly shift further SE with heavy rainfall and severe storm
potential shifting into NE FL by the late morning and afternoon
hours while SE GA will start to see a decrease in showers/storms
by the afternoon. Temps and humidity levels will continue near
record levels for early December with Max Temps in the lower to
middle 70s across SE GA and upper 70s/lower 80s for NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moist airmass in place is suggesting widespread IFR development at
NE FL TAF sites, while SSI will continue to deal with tempo TSTM
activity. Widespread MVFR CIGS with showers and storms to impact
all TAF sites through the day on Monday with TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
with gusty winds possible if storms directly impact the terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
South to Southwest Flow at 10-15 knots nearshore with seas 2-4 ft
and slightly higher winds to 15-20 knots offshore with seas 3-5 ft
and will keep Small Craft Exercise Caution headline in place. More
strong to severe storms expected to push into the waters ahead of
the approaching cold front on Monday along with SW winds of 10-20
knots and seas 2-5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts possible across SE
GA through Monday Morning and will keep Flood Watch in place for
now. Some model trends showing heavy pcpn of 2-3 inches across
Suwannee River Valley of inland North FL possible Monday Morning
and may need to tweak Flood Watch southward but will see what 00z
model runs advertise and allow mid shift to expand if necessary.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Early December Humidity help to feed severe storms today
and set record high Dewpoints at Gainesville (74F) and Jacksonville
(73F). See Record Event Reports (RERGNV/RERJAX) for details.

Record High Dewpoints for December 3rd...
JAX 70F on 12-03-1968 and GNV 71F on 12-03-1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  70  47  61 /  90  60  30   0
SSI  65  71  51  64 /  80  80  50  10
JAX  69  76  52  66 /  80  90  50  10
SGJ  69  78  57  67 /  60  80  50  10
GNV  70  79  56  69 /  80  90  50  10
OCF  70  81  59  71 /  60  80  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-
     Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
     Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-
     Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

Hess/Zibura/McGinnis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1056 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WOODBINE                30.96N 81.72W
12/02/2018  M3.48 INCH       CAMDEN             GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER MEASURED 3.48 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
            24 HOURS.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PRIDGEN                 31.70N 82.92W
12/02/2018  M3.65 INCH       COFFEE             GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER IN PRIDGEN MEASURED 3.65 INCHES OVER THE
            PAST 24 HOURS.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W DEENWOOD            31.25N 82.40W
12/02/2018  M3.62 INCH       Ware               GA   OTHER FEDERAL

            RAWS SITE MEASURED 3.62 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW MANOR             31.12N 82.62W
12/02/2018  M5.12 INCH       Ware               GA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER MEASURED 5.12 INCHES OVER 24 HOUR
            PERIOD.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        4 NNW WAYCROSS          31.26N 82.38W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DAMAGED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LUCILLE STREET IN
            NORTH WAYCROSS.

1250 PM     FLOOD            WAYCROSS                31.21N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROAD FLOODING ISSUES AROUND THE CITY LIMITS OF
            WAYCROSS. FLOODING NEARING THE DOORS OF SOME RESIDENCES.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        WNW WAYCROSS            31.21N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DAMAGED DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE IN WAYCROSS OFF OF
            CARSWELL AVENUE TEBEAU STREET.

0150 PM     FLOOD            11 N BAXLEY             31.92N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Appling            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO ROADS HAVING FLOODING ACROSS THEM IN NORTHERN APPLING
            COUNTY OFF OF DOYLE ROAD.

0214 PM     TORNADO          6 SE WILLACOOCHEE       31.29N 82.97W
12/02/2018                   Atkinson           GA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A TDS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82 IN
            MOSTLY RURAL TERRAIN. NO DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN
            REPORTED AT THIS TIME. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR DATA.

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W BRUNSWICK           31.13N 81.56W
12/02/2018                   Glynn              GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TREES DOWN AT THE ROYAL OAKS SUBDIVISION
            SOUTHWEST OF BRUNSWICK.

0315 PM     TORNADO          4 NNW DUNGENESS         30.79N 81.50W
12/02/2018                   Camden             GA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            RADAR OBSERVATION INDICATE A TDS SIGNATURE WITH DEBRIS
            EXTENDING UP TO 10KFT. DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS SINCED MOVED
            OFF THE COAST.

0323 PM     HAIL             2 W KINGSLAND           30.79N 81.69W
12/02/2018  M1.00 INCH       Camden             GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE IN KINGSLAND.

&&

AENYEDI