Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
355 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of today-tonight)...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop
and propagate north to northeast in an unstable and moist airmass.
Mesoanalysis showed SBACPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and PWATs of 2 inches.
So enough instability and DCAPE to produce gusty winds up to 40-
60 mph and high rainfall rates to produce localized flooding. Storms
may tend to shift on off to the north-northeast and move toward the
coast in the evening hours. Most activity will be dissipated by
11pm-midnight. Overnight lows tonight in mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Monday...

Mid-upper ridge will remain nearly stationary across the central FL
peninsula during the weekend with some drier air moving in from the
south and southeast affecting central and srn parts of the forecast
area. GFS shows PWATs generally in the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range with
this dry air helping to curtail POPs a bit. Deep southwest flow will
allow for dominant west coast seas breeze during the day. At this
time...anticipate rain chances about 20-30 percent for northeast FL
and generally in the chance range (30-40 percent) for southeast GA
this weekend. Slightly above normal temperatures will prevail.
Sunday night into Monday...guidance is suggesting a surge of
moisture coming up from the south which should enable a better
chance of showers and storms for Monday afternoon and actually for
northeast FL with POPs to about 30-40 percent while southeast GA
values shift downward to around the 20-30 percent range. Highs in
the lower 90s forecast for Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...
The general trend for the extended is that a mid to upper level
trough will dig into the ern U.S./East Coast with an associated
cold front and prefrontal trough making as far as south as the
southeast GA area and coastal SC. Relatively moist, and deep
southwest to west wind flow will produce scattered showers
and storms each day up through late Wed. Drier air may move in
from the northwest, per the GFS, by Wed evening and Thu but not all
the way through the region. For now...with the Euro model showing
much wetter conditions as the front stalls near the area will
maintain at least climo POPs Thu and Fri. Temperatures will remain
at or slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION..
Mainly VFR conds outside of convection for the TAF sites. Scattered
sea breeze convection as it moves inland with best chances
at JAX/VQQ/GNV and have kept TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds
to around 30 knots possible. Shower chances end earliest at
the coast between 22-00z, while convection chances will linger at
inland TAF sites until 00-02z. Lingering high clouds during the
overnight hours with some light fog possible at GNV/VQQ but chances
too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridge axis will remain mainly south of the
waters through middle of next week providing for southerly flow over
the local waters and a chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm.
SSW winds 10-15 kts will prevail over the waters, becoming onshore
near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Combined seas 3
ft or less.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip current rest of today. Lower risk
for SE GA expected this weekend with moderate risk for NE
FL where longer period ESE swells will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  73  91 /  50  30  20  40
SSI  77  90  76  90 /  30  10  10  20
JAX  74  92  74  93 /  20  30  10  20
SGJ  75  91  74  90 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  73  92  74  93 /  30  30   0  20
OCF  73  92  73  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

ARS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
354 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

FLZ025-172030-
Inland Duval FL-
354 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 353 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Normandy, or 10 miles west of Jacksonville, moving northwest at 15
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Cecil Field, Cisco Gardens, Normandy, Baldwin, Jacksonville Heights
and Whitehouse Air Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 8195 3033 8198 3048 8182 3020 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 151DEG 14KT 3030 8183

MCGINNIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>