Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
424 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Thursday Night/...
Rest of Today: A surface trough extends across southern Georgia
into the Suwanee Valley this afternoon, and scattered to numerous
showers and storms were developing along and south of this
boundary. The light westerly low level flow was pushing the Gulf
coast sea breeze inland, and pinning the east coast sea breeze
towards the coast. The northerly flow aloft was causing a
southeasterly storm motion, and storms should merge across the
eastern interior portions of northeast Florida late this
afternoon into the early evening. Drier air aloft was noted in the
sounding and strong downbursts are expected this afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Outside of convection, it
was very hot outside, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and
heat indices around 105 degrees.

Tonight: Convection will wind down this evening across northeast
Florida due to loss of daytime heating. Showers may redevelop
along the Gulf coast late in the night before daybreak in the low
level westerly flow, and move into the Suwanee Valley and north
central Florida. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions will prevail
under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to
mid 70s.

Thursday and Thursday Night: Vertically stacked low pressure will
move southeastward across southern Iowa and northern Missouri,
with surface cold front pushing into the Tennessee Valley and
southern Plains. Flow aloft will become more west to northwesterly
as the upper ridge just west of the region begins to break down.
The Gulf coast sea breeze will continue to be dominant, and the
slightly stronger westerly flow will push the sea breeze inland at
a quicker rate. Moisture will increase across southeast Georgia on
Thursday as the ridging breaks down, with precipitable water
values increasing to around 2 inches. If an east coast sea breeze
is able to develop, it will be pinned right along the east coast
on Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will develop across the
western portion of the region, and then move eastward. The
greatest chance for storms will be along the coastal counties of
northeast Florida. It will be a very hot day once again, with
temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s across the region,
even at the beaches. High dewpoints will lead to heat indices of
102-110F, and a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of
the region on Thursday. Convection will push into the western
Atlantic in the early evening, with mainly dry conditions
overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday Night/...
Stacked low pressure will move slowly eastward across Illinois and
into Indiana on Friday, and then the upper low will weaken and
shift through the Ohio Valley Friday night. The overall flow will
become west to southwesterly across the region, with high pressure
south of the area. Subtly drier low level air will also move into
northeast Florida. This will lead to lower rain chances,
especially across the Suwanee Valley and I-10 corridor. A weak
shortwave is forecast to move across southeast Georgia on Friday
around the base of the upper trough, and the best chances of rain
(around 50%) are expected there. Highs will be in the low to mid
90s once again, with heat indices of 100-105F. The upper level
trough will lift out to the northeast on Saturday and mid/upper
level high pressure will build over the region. Similar rain
chances are expected once again, the highest towards the Altamaha
River in southeast Georgia and towards Marion County in northeast
Florida.

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Surface and mid-level ridge will nudge northward on Sunday,
pushing the enhanced westerly winds northward as well. Upper-level
ridge continues to dominate the region, with warm temperatures
and thunderstorm chances remaining. Towards the middle of next
week, a backdoor frontal boundary may shift into the region as
high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. This may lead to
above normal rain chances once again Tuesday and Wednesday,
beginning first across southeast Georgia on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms were developing across
the region, and will impact the TAF sites through the afternoon
and into the early evening hours. MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible in storms. Showers are expected to redevelop near
sunrise, especially towards KGNV. South to southwesterly winds
5-10 knots will prevail this afternoon inland outside of
thunderstorms, and southeast along the coast as a weak east coast
sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge over central Florida will slowly shift
southward through the weekend. This pattern will continue to
support a south to southwest wind flow regime through much of the
forecast period. Given the mean flow decidedly westerly by
Thursday and Friday, there will likely be a greater chance of
offshore moving afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Mariners
should be aware of the possibility of inclement weather in the
aftn and evening hours and stay updated on the latest statements
and warnings. For the offshore waters, there is some chance of
southerly winds near the 15-20 kt range in the evening and into
part of the overnight hours through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  74  91 /  30  30  20  30
SSI  76  93  76  90 /  20  40  20  30
JAX  74  96  74  94 /  40  60  20  30
SGJ  74  92  74  91 /  40  50  20  40
GNV  74  92  74  91 /  40  50  10  30
OCF  75  91  75  90 /  40  40  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

23/Kennedy/Bricker

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